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HERE COMES THE RDF

WINTER REPORT CARD
 
A big thanks to Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost for passing along some of these Winter numbers to share with you. I thought now, (before the melt) would be a good time to check in and see where we are for Snowfall totals and Snow on the ground.
 
St. John's
Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 247.5 cm (40 cm above average)
Snow on ground today: 25 cm (average)
 
Gander
Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 253.6 cm (Almost exactly average 251 cm)
Snow on ground today: 120 cm (well above the 42 cm avg)
 
Deer Lake
Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 272.6 cm (Also very near the 282 cm avg)
Snow on ground today: 55 cm (below the avg of 80 cm)
 
Happy Valley-Goose Bay
Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 240.4 cm (About 20 cm above avg)
Snow on ground today: 123 cm (well above the 78 cm avg)
 
Labrador City
Dec 1st-Feb 26th Snowfall: 291.2 cm (105 cm above average!)
Snow on ground today: 104 cm (slightly above 92 cm avg)
 
MAUZY SETUP
 
First of all, a big shout out to the GFS model. I wrote a blog back on February 14th and at the end, I mentioned that the long range GFS model had been hinting at a blocking pattern for the end of the month and into March. Long range 7-14 day forecast models change drastically from run to run, however they are helpful for this very thing; picking up on pattern changes and the 'overall setup' in the atmosphere. Kudos to the GFS, for signalling this pattern change, almost to the day, nearly 2 weeks ago!
 
The setup does indeed look 'mauzy' for St. John's and the Northeast Coast for the coming days. The ridge of High pressure 'blocking' the highway in the atmosphere really sets up this Weekend and it will be massive. By Saturday, forecast models stretch the ridge from Baffin Island to Europe! Nothing will be getting through. For St. John's and the Northeast Coast. Time to bring on the RDF!
 
Feb2712.PNG-For St. John's and the Northeast Coast: It looks like this RDF pattern with East-Northeasterly flow will hold strong right through this weekend and into early next week. As is usually the case in these foggy set-ups, flights will likely be impacted at YYT and even YQX. 
-Our current low will continue to weaken over the next few days, however it will wrap a decent pulse of moisture into Newfoundland and Labrador on Friday into Saturday. Periods of rain mixed with Snow is on the menu for the Island and into Southeastern Labrador.
-In the Straits and right along the Southeast Coast, you'll likely get into the Snow mixed with Rain action. However, for areas inland and up to Cartwright, Makkovik and even HV-GB this could be an all (or mostly) Snow event for you folks. Friday-Saturday is the time frame. Stay tuned.
-A new low moves into the Grand Banks on Friday-Saturday, which will help to keep this lovely pattern sustained through the weekend. 

GOODBYE NL WINTER?
 
Alright, I know, I know. For those who love Winter, how could I say such a thing! For those who don't love Winter, I shouldn't jinx it, right?
 
True. There's no way Winter is truly over. March is a long month in NL, we're destined to see a few big Storms... calling Sheila! However, with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) set to remain negative into early March and the now the AO (Arctic Oscillation) set to tank in March... Winter will likely have a tough time getting 'setup' over the next few weeks. By then we're into Sheila time and then Spring begins March 20th! 
NAO Feb 27.PNGAO-Feb27.PNG
Both a negative NAO and AO tend to bring a warmer than normal setup for Newfoundland and Labrador. And as we'll see over the next few days, the negative NAO can bring a full on East-Northeast coastal flow, which can last for days.
 
For a rundown on the NAO & AO and how they 'typically' influence the Weather patterns across North America and here in Atlantic Canada, here's a fantastic link.
 
Again, stay tuned to the Live Blog for the very latest on the day to day #NLwx!

Ryan

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