-Just a few quick thoughts on our latest Storm. Perhaps the fact that the
GFS wouldn't agree with the GEM and Euro, right up until the 11th hour, was our
sign that the forecast models never really had a good handle on this
-The setup wasn't typical either. All of the snow was falling along an elongated trough, which ended up being much narrower than forecast models
were projecting. The trough also ended up moving further North than was
originally thought, those 2 factors ended things early for St. John's yesterday, after only 5 cm of
Snow. Still, Clarenville, Terra Nova & Bonavista did get their expected
Snow through the day on Thursday. -However as I
mentioned on the Live Blog last night, forecast models were holding our trough
together nicely overnight and bringing it back across the Avalon overnight and
into Friday morning. They certainly nailed that. Still waiting for official totals, but about 17 cm fell in St. John's last night and through this morning. A little redemption for us
forecasters and the models!
-Final thought. No doubt, the forecast models did a poor job with this system. However the last 'busted forecast' I can think of was our
'White Ninja' storm late last January. We've had 14 Storms or systems
move through since the big East Nfld Blizzard back on January 10th... and the forecast models
have done a pretty solid job with 13 of them. 90+% isn't half bad, especially when
you're on rock in the middle of the Atlantic!
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
High pressure is taking over and turning things quiet over the next few
days. Northerly winds, cool temperatures and a few flurries will be on the menu
for the Northeast Coast through the day on Saturday, however we'll see lots of
Sunshine for the rest of the Province. Sunday looks like a great day for the
entire Province. Sunshine in the mix for everyone, temps just below zero across
the Island and temps a few degrees above seasonal in Labrador. Here's the GEM
Regional projection for the next 36 hours.
RETURN OF THE BLOCKING HIGH- PART 337
It's baaaaaaack. As I mentioned in last weeks post, forecast models had been hinting at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) turning into a negative
phase. That switch to negative is now well under way and will continue right
through next week.
A negative NAO indicates higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic
and quite often a blocking pattern sets up. That pattern can often lead to
long periods of an unfavorable onshore flow for the Atlantic Coastline
of NL. That blocking pattern will be on the menu for mid-late next week as an
area High pressure sets up over Greenland. A storm which will be moving South of
the Island on Monday, will want to cross the Atlantic as usual, but will be
blocked from doing so. Instead, the system will sit and spin to the Southeast
of Newfoundland and will wrap precip back into NL late Wednesday or
Thursday. That good ol' East/Northeast coastal onshore flow will set up and
could hold right through next weekend. Have a look at the long range European
model, to see our blocking High in action.
As I mentioned in my December-January recap, January temperatures
were slightly above average in NL. However across the planet, January was the
9th warmest January since record keeping began back in 1880, according to NOAA.
Land temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, while ocean temps were 8th
Image Courtesy of NOAA Climate.gov
The craziest stat is our on going trend. January was the 335th
consecutive month with warmer than normal global temperatures, based on the 20th
century average. The last time we had a below average month? February 1985. For
more check out this Global Temperature Update.