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A record Spring, Summer & now into Fall, 2012 looks likely to finish among the warmest ever at YYT.

Hey Folks,
Welcome to November! As I mentioned in the last post, October was a warm one right across the Province. 

Nov0112.JPGPhoto courtesy: Corduroy Brook Enhancement Association in Grand Falls-Windsor

So how warm was October in NL?

October Monthly Average Mean Temps
Lab City: 2.7° warmer than normal.
HV-GB: 2.4° warmer than normal. 
Deer Lake: 2.7° warmer than normal.
Gander: 2.5° warmer than normal.
St. John's: 2.4° warmer than normal.
With an average mean of 9.3°, this marks the 3rd warmest October on record at YYT (since 1942) St. John's.
It's really been quite a run over the past 10 months here in St. John's.
-Warmest April ever recorded, all the way back to the 1870's.
-Warmest July/August combo in almost 30 years (1984) 
-Warmest September ever at YYT.
-The most 20° degree days ever recorded in one year at YYT.
-The 2nd warmest April-September, second only to 1999.
-And now the 3rd warmest October at YYT. 
Other than June, which was below normal and March which was average, the past 8 of 10 months have all been well above normal in St. John's. In fact, through 10 months of the year, we are currently running nearly 1.9° degrees warmer than normal. With November & December both looking warmer than normal, could we be looking at the warmest year on record at YYT?
WARMEST YEARS AT YYT (since 1942)  
1999- Avg High: 10.9° & Avg Mean: 6.6°
2010- Avg High:   9.7° & Avg Mean: 6.5°
2006- Avg High: 10.0° & Avg Mean: 6.4°
1951- Avg High: 10.1° & Avg Mean: 6.1°
1981- Avg High:   9.6° & Avg Mean: 5.9°
2000- Avg High:   9.9° & Avg Mean: 5.8°
(1971-2000 Avg High: 8.7° & Avg Mean: 4.7°)
As you can see, there have only been 3 years with average high's over 10° and 4 years with average mean's over 6° at YYT. This year easily could be another. If November and December finish with just AVERAGE temperatures, 2012 would finish with an Average High of 10.2° and an Average Mean of 6.3°. With November & December looking warm, it certainly looks like we'll be right there in the top 5 warmest years on record. Stay tuned!
Environment Canada has released it's latest outlook for temperatures and precipitation through November, December & January with little change. Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected across NL this Fall & early Winter. Beyond that, the forecast for February, March and April is once again for warmer than normal temperatures over the Island. Near Normal in Labrador. 

In terms of precipitation, the next few months could wet & snowy in Labrador. Climate models predict above normal precip in Labrador. In February March and April precipitation is expected to be normal, to slightly above normal over the Maritimes and the Western Half of the Island.

Novprecip.PNGIn case you missed my earlier Winter Outlook, you can check it out here.

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