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HEAVY RAIN COMING FOR THE AVALON + WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Hey Folks,
 
What a November day across the Island on Tuesday! Have a look at the High's across the Province yesterday!
 
La Scie 18.4°
Deer Lake 18.1° (Old Record 16.8, in 1982)
Corner Brook 17.7°
Rocky Harbour 17.5°
Englee 17.4°
Gander 17.4° (Old Record 15.6, in 2010)
Terra Nova 17.3°
Winterland 17.0°
St. John's West 16.1°
Twillingate 15.8°
Stephenville 15.3°
St. John's 14.7°
 
Even today was a warm one in the East, with temps hitting 15.9° at YYT and 17.1° in the West End of St. John's. Down at Cape Race the temperature hit 12.1°, which broke an a record of 11.7°, set back in 1929!
 
But of course, all good things must come to an end. The cold front crossed the Island today (Wednesday) bringing showers, periods of rain and much cool temperatures. 
 
Things will continue wet for Central and Eastern Newfoundland tonight... and then stay really wet for Eastern Newfoundland on Thursday and into especially into Thursday night, as our next system rolling in from the South.
  
RAINFALL WARNINGS
 
St. John's & the Southern Shore, as well as the Southern Avalon are under a Rainfall Warning for tonight, though Friday as this system passes to the Southeast. Meanwhile, a Special Weather Statement has also been issued for the Burin Peninsula and over the Northwestern Avalon. 

 
Forecast models have been flirting with amounts of 70-90 mm over the Southern Avalon and 40-60 mm over St. John's & the Metro area. Amounts will drop off quickly as you move West & North, however periods of heavy rain will also push into the Burin Peninsula and up into the Clarenville and Bonavista areas as well.
 
It's going to be a very wet 36 hours for Southern Newfoundland, however the heaviest amounts of Rain are expected to move over the region late Thursday and especially Thursday night.
 
Here's the latest GEM Regional model for the next 36 hours.
 
 
HOW MUCH RAIN?
 
Despite the fact the Rain is already moving into Newfoundland, forecast models continue have some disagreement on Rainfall totals through Friday morning. Having said that, the Canadian Regional and GFS models are at least in the same ball park tonight. Here is the latest Canadian GEM Regional.

GEM-Nov1412.PNG
The GFS model is showing similar amounts over the Southern Avalon, but drops a little less Rain over the Northern Avalon and Metro St. John's.

GFS-Nov1412.PNG
It's worth noting the ECMWF European model is only dropping 20-40 mm over the Avalon during this time, but it appears to be the odd man out right now.
 
WEEKEND LOOKING GREAT
 
The good news is, the Island will slowly clear out through the day on Friday and into Friday night... and the Weekend is looking brisk but bright right now. High pressure will be in full control right across NL this weekend, with temperatures highs near the freezing mark.
 
Have a look at the latest GFS Long Range model, which runs from Friday through Sunday.
 
 
Stay tuned to the Live Blog for the latest on the Weekend and any updates with our juicy system rolling into over the next 48 hours.
 
Ryan

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