HEAVY RAIN COMING FOR THE AVALON + WEEKEND OUTLOOK
November 14, 2012 6:50 PM
What a November day across the Island on Tuesday! Have a look at the High's
across the Province yesterday!
La Scie 18.4°
Deer Lake 18.1° (Old Record 16.8, in 1982)
Corner Brook 17.7°
Rocky Harbour 17.5°
Gander 17.4° (Old Record 15.6, in 2010)
Terra Nova 17.3°
St. John's West 16.1°
St. John's 14.7°
Even today was a warm one in the East, with temps hitting 15.9° at YYT and
17.1° in the West End of St. John's. Down at Cape Race the temperature hit
12.1°, which broke an a record of 11.7°, set back in 1929!
But of course, all good things must come to an end. The cold front crossed
the Island today (Wednesday) bringing showers, periods of rain and much cool
Things will continue wet for Central and Eastern Newfoundland tonight... and
then stay really wet for Eastern Newfoundland on Thursday and into especially into
Thursday night, as our next system rolling in from the South.
St. John's & the Southern Shore, as well as the Southern Avalon are
under a Rainfall Warning for tonight, though Friday as this system passes to the
Southeast. Meanwhile, a Special Weather Statement has also been issued for
the Burin Peninsula and over the Northwestern Avalon.
Forecast models have been flirting with amounts of 70-90 mm over the
Southern Avalon and 40-60 mm over St. John's & the Metro area. Amounts will
drop off quickly as you move West & North, however periods of heavy rain
will also push into the Burin Peninsula and up into the Clarenville and
Bonavista areas as well.
It's going to be a very wet 36 hours for Southern Newfoundland, however the
heaviest amounts of Rain are expected to move over the region late Thursday and
especially Thursday night.
Here's the latest GEM Regional model for the next 36 hours.
HOW MUCH RAIN?
Despite the fact the Rain is already moving into Newfoundland, forecast
models continue have some disagreement on Rainfall totals through Friday
morning. Having said that, the Canadian Regional and GFS models are at least in
the same ball park tonight. Here is the latest Canadian GEM Regional.
The GFS model is showing similar amounts over the Southern Avalon, but
drops a little less Rain over the Northern Avalon and Metro St. John's.
It's worth noting the ECMWF European model is only dropping 20-40 mm over
the Avalon during this time, but it appears to be the odd man out right now.
WEEKEND LOOKING GREAT
The good news is, the Island will slowly clear out through the day on
Friday and into Friday night... and the Weekend is looking brisk but bright
right now. High pressure will be in full control right across NL this weekend,
with temperatures highs near the freezing mark.
Have a look at the latest GFS Long Range model, which runs from Friday
Stay tuned to the Live Blog for the latest on the Weekend and any updates
with our juicy system rolling into over the next 48 hours.