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BABY STEPS FOR EASTERN NFLD
June 8, 2012 1:05 PM
This morning on Twitter and Facebook, I compared being a Weatherman in NL,
to repeatedly having to kick someone in the nether region... with them just politely
taking it. It's not far off. Thankfully, most of you out there remember I'm just the messenger and rarely give me a hard time about it!
But it's still early I guess :)
What looked a straight up clear out earlier in the week, has slowly but
surely turned into a "Mostly Cloudy with afternoon Sunny Breaks" kind
of Saturday for St. John's, the Northeast Coast and into Central Newfoundland. We'll likely see some
morning drizzle once again and the cooler Northeasterly winds are going to keep
temperatures hovering around the 9 to 12 along the Coast. Our problem is, the 2
areas of High pressure which were originally set to slide over the Island, are
going to be too far apart. The first will be too far South and really won't have
an influence on us at all. The other, which is over the Labrador Sea will help
to bring the Northeasterly flow keeping temps cool. Once again, the West Coast
& South Coast of Newfoundland are looking really nice for the weekend. Watch
for some afternoon showers shooting into Western Labrador. Nice in the East.
Sunday will bring more Sunshine than Saturday, but the ENE wind, will
continue to kick some cloud cover up for Metro and up the Coast to Bonavista Bay
and keep temperatures cool. Both days this weekend, but especially Sunday, look
like days where you'll see more Sun and slightly warmer temperatures inland, than right
along the Northeast Coast. Central Newfoundland really clears out on Sunday,
with a mix of Sun and Cloud and temps in the mid-high teens, just watch for a
pop up shower in the afternoon. The West Coast could also see an afternoon pop up shower. Chance
of showers in Eastern Labrador, clearing in the West. Temps near 20!
Interesting Setup Next Week
The forecast model consensus for next week, is for a system rolling out of
the US Plains to track up into the Hudson Bay and Northern Quebec area...
pulling all kinds of warm air towards Atlantic Canada along with it. That Southerly flow will push into Labrador first, then into Western
Newfoundland and Central by Monday and into Tuesday. We're looking at temps well into the 20's and possibly even flirting with 30 in Labrador!!!
The question mark once
again, is Eastern Newfoundland. The only thing which might keep us from taping into
that warm Southwesterly flow, is a Low which will be sitting South of the
Island next week. And guess what? It's going to be blocked, just sitting and spinning!
AS OF NOW... the idea is that Eastern Newfoundland will indeed tap into that Southerly flow of air with some warmer temperatures (well into the teens) on Tuesday and into
Wednesday. I should stop writing right now... however, I'll tell you that the latest thinking is that the blocked Low moves a bit further North & changes our
Winds to Southeasterly or, dare I say it, even Easterly by the end of week. However, now we're talking about a week from now and so much can change. Just keep your fingers crossed, because if that blocked Low ends up just a bit further South,
we would be looking at those South Westerlies continuing through the week!
Either way, in the short term we will see some Sunny breaks in
Metro and along the Northeast Coast for both Saturday afternoon and Sunday. And with temperatures rising into next week, we are already taking baby steps towards a pattern change. The NAO has been recovering over the
past few days (black line is observed, red line(s) is the forecast) and should be back to closer to "neutral" by next weekend. That
means the blocking high & this blocking pattern is slowly starting break down!
These things take time... especially when you're on a rock in the North Atlantic.
No matter what the weather in your neck of the woods... have a Great Weekend!
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