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"White Ninja Storm" & The Weekend
January 31, 2012 7:00 PM
As a Meteorologist, today was frustrating. It's days like this, I have to remind myself that one of the main reasons I
moved to Newfoundland and Labrador was indeed, the crazy Weather! And today, that unpredictable
beast, that is the Weather here in Newfoundland and Labrador, showed us all
what's it capable of. When you're on a rock in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean,
I suppose, you have to expect the unexpected. However, in these days of
improving technology and forecast models, days like this... really seem to catch us
Now, it's not like we had no idea it was coming. Last night, based on the
main, go to forecast models (the Canadian, the American & the European) 5-10
cm looked like a very safe bet with winds 40-60 km/h. But sometimes, the
forecast models are wrong, especially in situations like this one... with a newly
forming and quick developing system.
So instead of tracking South of the Island like forecast, our rapidly
intensifying Low tracked 100-150 km further North... right over the Avalon. As
result, we were right into the meat and potatoes of this Storm, which was also
stronger than forecast. 14 cm fell in just 3 hours... 20 cm in 6 hours... 21 cm
total. Wind Gusts were clocked between 70 and 80 km/h across the Avalon. It was
an quick but intense Snow Storm.
Full credit to @thefutureyousee on Twitter, who named this storm
perfectly... because it really was a White Ninja Storm.
Here's hoping there's only 1, "White Ninja" this Winter.
THE NEXT ONE
An Alberta Clipper moving in Wednesday night into Thursday is still
expected to bring generally.... yes that magic number of 5-10 cm. I don't think
we're going to see any surprises with this one, as it passes just South of the
Island. Right now it looks like accumulating Snow from Stephenville to Terra
Nova and areas South.
UPDATED WEDNESDAY NOON
Forecast models are tracking this Clipper system just a bit further North this morning. As a result, the Southern Avalon is now at the risk of seeing near 15 cm of Snow. Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for the Southern Avalon. http://ow.ly/8Oap0
I still think we're looking at 5-10 cm for the Northern Avalon, & St. John's Metro. However the afternoon forecast model runs should have the best guidance yet. The very latest, tonight on Here & Now and I'll be updating the Live Blog later on as well.
THE BIG ONE ?
There are still a few question marks surrounding a potential Nor'easter for
Eastern Newfoundland on Friday night into Saturday. Forecast models all agree,
this system is going to spin up into a Powerhouse Nor'easter Storm...
The big question here of course... is how close this system will track to
the Island. A track close enough to the Avalon... and this system will certainly
have the potential to be a big 24-36 hour Storm which could drop some serious 30+ cm amounts. That happens to be the European
model's idea tonight, in fact. However, there's also a chance it stays East like the GFS (above) is hinting at tonight... only dropping 5-10 cm.
As always, stay tuned...
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