A Commons committee has recommended that the House find the government in contempt of Parliament for withholding information on the true costs of the government's crime program, purchase of F35 fighter jets and corporate tax cuts. The contempt issue could be debated Wednesday. A vote is expected Friday, although the government could delay that to next week. It's the government's call whether contempt of Parliament is a confidence measure. However, good luck trying to govern if none of the other parties support you.
All three opposition parties have said they will vote against the budget. Since budget votes are matters of confidence, a government loss on that means the government falls. The unraveling of the government could unfold in a number of ways:
The Liberal amendment comes up for a vote on Friday. The Bloc's amendment could be put to a vote on Thursday – although the government could delay it for a week.
Friday, March 25 is designated as an opposition day in Parliament, which means the Liberals get to set the agenda for the day's business. And top of the list could be a motion of non-confidence based on either the issue of contempt of Parliament or the budget. Should a motion based on either carry, the government goes down. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will reveal on Wednesday what a motion of non-confidence to be tabled on Friday would look like. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe says he'll support that motion. NDP Leader Jack Layton says Harper can avoid an election by amending the budget.
Prime Minister Harper has said he won't take any shortcuts and go straight to the Governor General. Although theoretically, he could decide that he doesn't want to put the Canadian people through all those Parliamentary theatrics, name calling and breast beating. Should Harper go directly to Rideau Hall and resign, an election would likely be set for May 2 or May 9. But that could weaken his argument that he doesn't want an election and that the opposition made him do it.
All roads end at Rideau Hall, the official residence of Governor General David Johnston. Prime Minister Harper will have to stop by for a chat at some point and tender the resignation of his government if it loses the confidence of the House, or if Harper wants to take his case straight to the people. In either case, let the election games begin.
Still percolating is the Bev Oda controversy. She's accused of lying to Parliament for saying she didn't know who altered a document that denied funding to a relief agency. She later admitted she had ordered the alteration. That issue goes to the Commons sometime on Friday – if the government hasn't already fallen.