Your Questions: Ask CBC

Do you believe that mounting pressure by the U.S. and Israel on Egypt is ultimately causing the Middle east more problems?

I noticed that Egypt wasn't in too big of a hurry to fix the wall that allowed the Palistinians to get what they needed to survive.

Peter Armstrong: Charlene,

Egypt finds itself in a tough spot here. On the one hand, it can’t be seen to have abandoned the people in Gaza, nor be too cozy with Israel.

On the other other hand, it has its own security to consider. A third factor is of course, the overwhelming support for Gazans within Egypt’s population.

Hosni Mubarak is trying to fend off opposition from the Muslim Brotherhood movement in his own country. Hamas, which is an off-shoot of the Brotherhood was responsible for bringing down the border’s barriers. The amount of time it took Egypt to close the breach in the border spoke volumes about how Egypt feels it’s caught between a rock and a hard place.

Egypt is a key player here. That country is trying to broker a deal between Fatah and Hamas, it’s leading the negotiations to release captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and still has enormous sway in the region as a whole.

Ultimately, the biggest pressure it is facing comes from within its own population. Mubarak is walking a fine line of appeasing the international community (including Israel and the US) and showing he will stand up for Palestinians.

Given that the Americans and Europeans seem not to be very motivated to get a comprehensive peace deal done, can Canada play any sort of substantive role a possible peace process? If so, how? And if not, why?

Peter Armstrong: Chistopher,

It is entirely reasonable to question the motives. It is abundantly valid to be sceptical about the outcome. It is also fair to say the current adminstration in the United States is coming quite late to this file but it must also be pointed out U.S. President George Bush has invested no small amount of time, energy and what’s left of his political capital in trying to broker a deal here.

As for Canada, you raise an interesting question. Canada’s foreign minister Maxime Bernier was here last month on his first trip to the region. For the most part, he appeared focused on trying not to stray from his talking points. Canada once held high standing in this region among both Palestinians and Israelis. That reputation took a nosedive among Palestinians after Canada was the first in the world to boycott the Hamas led government. Canada pledged 300 million dollars at a recent donor’s conference for the Palestinian economy.

At least some of that money will go toward restructuring and training the Palestinian security forces. This is an important role and something Canada can do. But many here would like to see Canada do more.

While Bernier was here, we sat down with Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. He said Canada has an important role to play, but when we pushed for specifics, he was unable to come up with any.

Given that the Gaza fence and the West Bank wall have been far more successful in stopping attacks against Israel and given Hamas's longstanding vow to destroy Israel backed up by over 4,000 rocket attacks from Gaza, what's in it for Israel to continue with the so-called "peace process"? Isn't it more effective simply to step up its counter-terrorism activities (which have been pretty successful by any measure) and just contain the problem?

Peter Armstrong: David,

To just contain the problem isn’t really an option here. Palestinians and many Israelis will quickly remind you, after 40 years of occupation the problem has neither gone anywhere nor really been contained.

The major concern in Israel is one of demographics. To that end, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said time is running out to find a two-state solution. In an interview given last year, Olmert used language tougher than any previous leader.

Peter's answer, on CBC Newsworld's Around The World

“The day will come when the two-state solution collapses, and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights. As soon as that happens, the state of Israel is finished.”

There are almost the same number of Israeli Jews as there are Arabs in Israel, The West Bank and Gaza combined. So, Olmert’s concern is that if the window closes on a two-state solution, a single state would lose its Jewish identity. Various experts (inlcuding former US President Jimmy Carter) have said Israel has three options:

*To negotiate a two state solution.
*To continue the occupation and govern over millions of Palestinians without giving them the right to vote
*Accord them the full rights of citizenship including the right to vote.

So, despite the situation on the ground, peace talks are slowly (very slowly) getting under way. Rockets continue to be fired from Gaza. Settlement activity continues in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. And yet, for the first time in seven years, the two sides are talking. The fear of demographics is one of the largest and most important factors in why those talks are proceeding.

The opening of the border caused fears that there would be smuggling in of weapons into Gaza from Egypt, however is it possible that this last bombing was a reaction to the resealing of border without promises of increased freedom and prosperity for the Gaza people?

Peter Armstrong: Andre,

To be fair, the biggest concern among Israelis was less the flow of weapons into Gaza and more the flow of militants into Egypt. There is a long, largely unmanned border between Israel and Egypt in the Sinai. Israel worries if militants got into Egypt, they would have much easier access into Israel to carry out attacks there.

It remains unclear how the two bombers this week entered Israel, but the attack is already being raised as cause to build another giant barrier, this time between Israel and Egypt.

Gaza was, and remains a mess. The situation was approaching catastrophe before the border was breached. People have been able to buy up food and supplies, but this is by no means a long term solution. The problems in Gaza are dire and must be addressed. Unemployment levels are staggering. More than 80 per cent of the crowded Strip relies on handouts to feed their families.

I spoke recently with the head of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency in Gaza. He says the rocket fire is deplorable, but the Israeli response to cut off all but the basic essentials is no better. 1.5 million people are being punished for the actions of a few. And he says, that only breeds extremism.

Considering Arafat and Barak were unable to reach even a tentative peace agreement a decade ago, what is the likelyhood of Abbas and Olmert having a better shot at a lasting peace settlement now? Why should either the Palestinians or the Israelis continue to hope for peace when their own leaders are so weak and isolated?

Peter Armstrong: Oliver,

That sense of hopelessness is very present here. But (and this is a very big but) the vast majority of Israelis and Palestinians want a deal. There is an argument (interesting, if not wholey believable) that because both leaders are so weak, this may just be the best chance at getting a deal done. That they have nothing to lose. And that perhaps the only way either man can stay in office is to reach a deal.The groundwork has been laid at the various summits over the years. It is still there.

At the end of the day, the negotiating teams will almost assuredly use those previous negotiations as templates and (potentially at least) get straight to the more difficult aspects that tripped up earlier efforts. There is every reason to be sceptical if not outright worried. There is also every reason to continue to hope.

Who will take the toughest line on Israels illegal settlements,roads,walls etc?Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama or McCain ( Romney) ???

Peter Armstrong: Frank,

There is an interesting debate going on in both Israeli and Palestinian societies surrounding the primaries in the U.S.

One major Israeli daily newspaper is running a regular series called the Israel Factor, convening a panel of Israeli experts discussing which candidates will be “best for Israel.”

McCain, seen as a hawk (especially on Iran) is winning right now. Independent Michael Bloomberg is tied with Hilary Clinton (Clinton is hailed for wanting to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.) That panel of Israelis ranks Barak Obama dead last.

Among Palestinians democrats win the most support and Obama is best liked among them.

Clinton brings an interesting dynamic to this race. Her husband would likely play some kind of role in her adminstration. Bill Clinton came about as close as any American leader to bringing these two sides together.

Current President George Bush has said he wants to see a peace deal signed within a year. Almost no one here believes that will happen. So, whoever wins the nomination and eventual presidency will almost assuredly inherit these negotiations. So both the primaries and eventual presidential race are being watched very closely.