Your Questions: Ask CBC

Given Kibaki's intransigence, is Harper's govt likely to employ sanctions

David McGuffin: Good question John, On Thursday Canada was one of thirteen countries, along with the European Union, who warned that direct budget assistance to the Kenyan government could be cut off if the situation in Kenya continues to worsen.

Canada’s High Commissioner here, Ross Hynes, has been active, especially shortly after the election results were announced, in trying to bring the two sides together.

Canada’s interests in Kenya are not as large, economically or geo-politically, as Britain, the US or the European Union. My best guess is Ottawa will follow their lead. And on Thursday the European Parliament voted to recommend that aid be freezed until the political stalemate here is over.

David,
I think the problem is the imperial presidency which has all the power. The incumbent trys to hang on at any price, like Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Kenya's recent attempt at changing the constitution didn't fix this. What do you think of the idea of them going back and having a new referendum on the original draft consitution that recommended a more powerful parliament and a weaker president, then trying the election again?

David McGuffin: Les,

Many Kenyan’s agree that having so much power vested in the Presidency is a big part of what is going wrong in the country. When Kibaki first won power in 2002, Raila Odinga was promised the prime minister-ship, sharing executive powers with the President. This didn’t happen, and ultimately is one of the major reasons why Raila and many others left Kibaki’s government.

Power sharing then might have saved a lot of anguish today.

Also, despite the opposition's victory in getting their candidate elected as speaker, it is the president who decides when the house sits or not. For now it won’t sit for three month, but that could extend longer with Kibaki running the country by a series of Presidential decrees. This degree of power only likely encourages the hardliners around Kibaki that negotiation with opposition is unnecessary.

Many in the opposition have made the comparison to Mugabe and the economic and political collapse of Zimbabwe.

Kenya is still a very long way from that, and hopefully will remain that way.

I have noticed that "democracy" seems to bring out the worst in people,Kenya and Pakistan are good examples.

Do you think Kenyans realize the degree of "horror"that they have shown the world when they kill and destroy in the name of "unfair elections?"

David McGuffin: Charlene,

I think most Kenyan’s are as horrified as the rest of the world in what has happened here in the past three weeks. This wasn’t in the script that anyone here foresaw.

Most Kenyan’s were proud of the fact that their country was having an incredibly closely fought election campaign in which issues were being discussed. Kenyan’s are some of the most politically savvy and interested people I have come across in 12 years living overseas. You can have an in-depth political conversation with anyone from a newspaper seller in downtown Mombasa to a farmer in Western Kenya.

And outside the Presidential vote, democracy really did succeed in this election. Many of the old warhorses in the parliament were voted out of office for not meeting their constituents' needs.

Most Kenyan’s agree that what has happened since the election is the fault of a handful of leaders on both sides of the equation and want much more out of them than the current standoff they are providing.

Kenyan’s still believe in democracy and certainly still hope their political institutions can be more like Canada’s and less like Pakistan’s.

Mr. Kibaki's Kikuyus vs. Mr. Odinga's Luos, how did economic didvisions based on tribal origins lay dormant until this election?

David McGuffin: Steven,

They really haven’t been all that dormant. There have been tribal clashes going on in Western Kenya since the early 1990’s. They flared up during election campaigns in 1992, 1997 and to a lesser extent in 2002. What has made this worse, is just how close this election campaign was. I also think the Kenyan media has also done a much better job than in the past in exposing failures and rigging in the election process which has also heightened frustrations of Kenyan people.

What are the most significant influences from outside Kenya that help/hinder the latest uprising?

David McGuffin: I would argue the failure of other African leaders, again, to stand up and condemn the vote rigging in this election is a problem. We had four prominent ex African Presidents here last week who did little more than say they were observing and then stopped in for dinner with ex President Daniel Moi, whose 24 year reign many would argue is at the root of Kenya’s problems.

The arrival on the scene of non-political African figures like South African Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu seemed to help calm things. Koffi Annan’s arrival is also much anticipated.

But at this point its hard to see what the answer is, as the two sides are so firmly entrenched in their positions.

What will it take for Kenya to recover, politically, economically and socially from this crisis? What can Kenyans do and what can the international community do to help?

David McGuffin: Julia,

That’s a big question. As I think I alluded to in the answer above, blood between the government and opposition is so bad, there is no quick fix available.

David's answer, on CBC Newsworld's Around The World

It has been argued that only heavy foreign diplomatic action, like sanctions and cuts in aid, will force real dialogue between the two sides. This week's rioting and the heavy police response to it has only further deepened the divide between the two. So it could be that we are at a point where a strong stance by the international community is needed.

Economically Kenya has not been damaged beyond repair.
The country is coming off a year of seven percent economic growth, and many sectors of the economy, like telecommunications, farming, are strong. If this political meltdown doesn’t go on for more than several months, the economy can be salvaged.

Socially there will be years of issues, especially in places like Eldoret, where the Kikuyu community, supporters of President Kibaki, have been effectively ethnically cleansed from the region. Many of the 100,000 refugees there say they aren’t going home. Where they will go and how these people can be accommodated is an unanswered question.

And I talked with Kikuyus who have remained behind, despite being attacked, having their houses burned, they say they will stay and fight if necessary. Not a happy scenario.

It will be hard for anything but a government of national unity, without the baggage of either party, to sort out what has happened up there and in places like Nairobi’s Mathare slum.

We have heard from family living throughout Western Kenya that men in military attire suspected to be soldiers from Uganda, in addition to those suspected to be members of the Mungiki sect, have been spotted in great numbers. Also we have heard of many other violent deaths recently in the area that don't seem to have been reported.

Is there any way we can get increased media coverage - whether local or international - in these most affected areas of the country, so the world can know what is really going on??

Thank you.

David McGuffin: Eric,

There have been rumours, and not much more at this point, of Ugandan troops crossing the border into Kenya. The Ugandan’s have strongly denied this rumour and it’s frankly hard to imagine what advantage they would gain by sending soldiers into this country.

The last I heard the Kenya Human Rights Commission was investigating and I understand they didn’t turn up any evidence. The Mungiki sect, which is made up of ethnic Kikuyu’s, supporters of President Kibaki, is active, especially in the Mathare slum, taking out retribution raids against opposition supporters.

I would suggest following the Kenyan media on the internet. Both the Nation and the Standard newspapers have been doing an admirable job under incredibly difficult conditions of covering the crisis in Kenya.

This man approached the police lines wailing. Screaming that he come home from work and found his 13 year old daughter — shot dead he says by riot police.

Many are comparing the ethnic violence in Kenya to the Rwandan genocide of 1994, which killed nearly 1 million Tutsis. Do you think the conflict in Kenya has the potential to escalate to that level?

David McGuffin: That is overplaying what is going on. What happened in Rwanda was a fairly unique set of circumstances.

Unlike Rwanda which has only two ethnic groups, Tutsi and Hutu, there are 42 tribes and ethnic groups in Kenya. The Kenyan population is much better educated than Rwanda’s was in 1994.

Despite the setback of this last election, unlike Rwanda then, Kenya is a functioning democracy with a decent legal system in place and, very importantly, a vibrant free press that keeps the country informed on what is going on in the country.

Kenya is also a substantially richer country than Rwanda was then.

These are just a few of the reasons that Kenya won’t descend into genocide.