How to make God laugh? Tell Him your plans.

An old joke that would not be lost on the still young president of the U.S. whose transforming agenda was side-swiped by the explosion in April of the BP oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

The oil gushing into the deep sea from the broken rig was horrible news at every level, threatening as much political as environmental damage.

Today, the physical leak is finally plugged. But in the process many Americans found Obama's leadership wanting and now his presidency is being bitterly contested. What are the longer-term implications?

Re-connecting? Barack Obama speaks to young people during a town hall event broadcast live on Oct. 14, 2010. My hope is that as we look forward, let's say on education or on energy, some of the things that we haven't yet finished, that we're going to have a greater spirit of cooperation after this next election, he said. (Charles Dharapak/Associated Press)

Obama won the presidential election two years ago in a landslide, 53 to 46 per cent, by capturing the imagination of independent voters and of younger and ethnic Americans.

In 2008, there were between 15 and 20 million first-time voters and Obama won 70 per cent of them. The evidence going into the mid-term elections this November is that these first-timers won't turn out again in anything like the same numbers.

What's more, Obama won't recapture a majority of the votes of independents concerned about the size and role of government, and deficits.

It is a far cry from the heady days of "change you can believe in."

But look back

Think back a bit, though, prior to the BP spill. In his short time in office, Obama had launched and achieved the most ambitious legislative agenda in memory, while managing two wars.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which injected almost $800 billion into a foundering economy, was a complex set of inter-linked policies encompassing tax breaks for the middle class, support for struggling state and local governments, and infrastructure support.

Following on the administration's actions to save Chrysler and General Motors, this money no doubt saved many jobs. But saving jobs doesn't represent "points on the board" in popular reckoning.

The same might be said for Congress adopting a comprehensive health-care reform act that will eventually cover about 80 per cent of the more than 40 million uninsured Americans through mandatory, subsidized, health insurance.

More problematic was the trade-off with Wall Street. Obama won his legislation to reform financial services and curtail predatory lending, but many Americans resented a bank bailout that also saved the bankers' big bonuses.

Still, in foreign policy, Obama pretty much reset the U.S. relationships with Russia and China, permitting at least some international traction on the vexing issues of nuclear proliferation, especially as regards Iran and North Korea.

The U.S. military expedition in Iraq is being wound down on schedule. And while the future of Iraq's governance is up in the air, at least Obama has delivered on his promise to extract the U.S. from the costly combat role that came with its greatest foreign policy blunder in history.

Afghanistan is going badly and it is now Obama's war, buttressed by his intense personal engagement over the past year. And while it now seems clear that upping the number of U.S. troops there will not be enough to master the Taliban insurgency, it could produce the kind of stalemate that permits power-sharing negotiations.

All the above — and more — represents an impressive set of achievements

So, in the light of what seems a productive job for America in a time of crisis, why is the country so divided about the Obama presidency?

Let me count the ways

First, America is divided, in many ways. Some of these cleavages are just part of politics in a complex democracy. Other divisions are deeper, darker and, in the way they impede the ability to grasp vital, longer-term issues, debilitating.

The harsh economic facts stand out, especially jobs and the calamitous drop in housing prices. The Rockefeller Institute reports that 20 per cent of households suffered a drop in income of 25 per cent or more in 2009.

That Obama only inherited this economic mess is true but old news by now.

The impression of his performance is woven into the public impression of the man himself, framed for many by events like the oil rig disaster and the innuendo of an intransigent Tea Party opposition tapping into the anti-Washington mood.

No doubt, the Democrats will take a hit in November's mid-term elections. Only two presidents since 1862 have seen their parties make gains in the first mid-terms after a presidential election, and Democrats are especially vulnerable this time because they won a bunch of marginal seats in 2006 and 2008.

How big a hit will the Democrats take? Gallup shows Obama's own approval rating remains about even. But the Republicans have an unprecedented 10-point lead on the congressional front. And 56 per cent of respondents indicated they are more comfortable with Congress and the White House being in different hands.

In the end, the most worrisome thing about American politics is not the so-so ratings for a high-expectations president struggling against a swift current of adverse events. Nor is it that U.S. politics is fractious and divisive.

The truly worrying problem is that the U.S. is on the edge of becoming dysfunctionally incapable of dealing rationally with long-term issues at all.

Somehow, America is going to have to strike a rational balance between short-term stimulus and longer-term austerity without making either into a partisan call to arms.

Can Obama pull this off? In a polarized landscape, he has to be able to take ownership of the centre and reassure independent voters worried about the role of government and the size of the deficit.

He also has to make the case for government being on the side of America's "better angels," meaning a government that is able to help the economy mobilize its muscle as well as defend emerging rights, a message younger voters seem to want to hear.

Is he up to it? As he said during the campaign, "Don't bet against me." At least not for when his re-election is on the line in 2012.