Voters in the first round of Ukraine's presidential election gave opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, the 2004 Orange Revolution's chief target, a big lead over his rival, Orange heroine and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Yanukovych received 35.4 per cent of Sunday's vote, giving him a 10.4 per cent lead over Tymoshenko's 25 per cent, with 96.5 per cent of votes counted. But analysts said that lead is misleading, because Tymoshenko is expected to pick up most of the votes scattered among 16 other candidates in the runoff election on Feb. 7.

Ukrainian opposition leader and presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych speaks to the media in Kiev, Ukraine, on Monday. (Sergei Chuzakov/Associate Press)Some analysts said that despite Tymoshenko's second-place finish, her political skills and sharp instincts will give her the edge in the runoff.

"Yanukovych's voter base has been exhausted. Although it was strong and compact and never betrayed him, it did not grow," said Viktor Nebozhenko, director of the sociology institute Ukrainian Barometer. "Tymoshenko, as a great communicator, has a chance to win this election."

'Yanukovych will find it harder to expand the electorate.'—Oleksandr Dergachev, analyst

It's rare for a woman to hold high political office in the former Soviet Union, and Tymoshenko has her detractors. But many Ukrainian women say they are proud of her status and see her as a role model, even if they don't always admire her political moves.

Some polls show Tymoshenko trailing Yanukovych in a head-to-head matchup, but analysts say Tymoshenko's strength is difficult to measure because much of her support comes from rural areas, where voters are harder for surveys to reach.

In the runoff election, analyst Oleksandr Dergachev said, many voters will turn against Yanukovych because of what he called "high levels of distrust" that have prevented him from getting more than 40 per cent of the vote in nationwide elections.

"It is difficult to predict the outcome of the second round, but Yanukovych will find it harder to expand the electorate than Tymoshenko," Dergachev said.

Some disappointed candidates may throw their weight behind Yanukovych, but analysts say voters probably won't follow their lead.

Russia a key issue

Despite their policy and personal conflicts, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych share a similar view of Ukraine's relations with Russia, its giant neighbour to the east, by far Ukraine's biggest trading partner, the region's dominant military power. Relations with Russia are considered the most important policy issue facing Ukraine.

Ukraine's prime minister and presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko, who finished second in Sunday's vote, has fought to retain the loyalty of voters angered by what many see as her movement's unkept promises. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press)In the future, NATO membership is out. There will be no more Kremlin-bashing, and relations with Georgia will not be nearly as close as they were under Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, who was trounced in Sunday's ballot, getting just 5.5 per cent of the vote.

Five years ago many Orange protesters dreamed of breaking Ukraine's historic dependence on Moscow and becoming part of Western Europe.

But they've had a rude awakening, in the form of a battle with Russia over energy prices, the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and one of the worst recessions in Europe.

All seemed to demonstrate that like it or not, Ukraine couldn't get along without good relations with Moscow, its historic ally.

The blunt-spoken Yanukovych, a former electrician and factory manager, has pledged to scrap Ukraine's NATO bid and elevate Russian to the status of a second official language alongside Ukrainian.

Tymoshenko, a heroine of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution, in 2007 criticized what she called Russia's imperial ambitions. But in the past year she has made peace with the Kremlin on energy and security issues.

Ballot fair and orderly

There was a strong turnout, with almost 67 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots.

Despite warnings of large-scale election fraud in the days leading up to Sunday's vote, officials and international election observers said the ballot was fair and orderly.

"The polling in Ukraine yesterday was overall the same as polling in any other democratic country," Matyas Eorsi, chairman of the observation mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, said Monday.

"It is the first time since independence [in 1991] that it has been possible to say this. Ukraine deserves enormous congratulation for this."

Joao Soares, president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, said the election was "very promising for the future of Ukraine's democracy."

Riots after 2004 vote

After the presidential election in November 2004, fraud allegations sent tens of thousands of Ukrainians into the streets of Kyiv, demanding an end to what they regarded as a corrupt regime. After weeks of protests, Yushchenko beat Yanukovych in a court-ordered revote.

Yushchenko's win was hailed in the West as a victory by democratic forces over the cynical veterans of Ukraine's Soviet regime. But in Moscow, many saw it as part of a sinister Western plot to surround and weaken Russia.

On Sunday, Yanukovych celebrated turning the tables on Yushchenko and his Orange forces. "Today marks the end of Orange power," he declared, with grim satisfaction. "There will be no room for [Yushchenko] in the second round. He has officially lost the faith of the people."

After his election, Yushchenko became embroiled in political skirmishes that paralyzed the government and he failed to push through many of his promised reforms.

A troubled economy

Ukraine's currency crashed in 2008, the economy sputtered and the International Monetary Fund had to step in with a $16.4 billion US bailout. Ukraine's gross domestic product plunged by 15 per cent in 2009, according to the World Bank, which estimates that the country will see anemic growth this year.

The next president will face the same problems.

Yury Yakimenko, an analyst at Razumkov Center, said the presidency itself is hopelessly compromised, because the office's powers were given to parliament as part of a deal that ended the 2004 conflict.

"Either Tymoshenko or Yanukovych will be forced to reform the constitution to have real authority to overcome the crisis," Yakimenko predicted. "Ukraine is mired in political squabbles and fights. The economic situation is close to collapse. The situation could spiral out of control."

Yanukovych faces one of the biggest challenges, Yakimenko said, because if he becomes president he will have to work with Prime Minister Tymoshenko.

"This will lead to a new political war and early parliamentary elections," Yakimenko predicted.