Earlier this week I told you about three off-year elections that many in Washington were looking at as a referendum on the Obama presidency.

The upshot of Tuesday's vote was that the Republicans wrestled two governorships from the Democrats, Virginia and New Jersey, while a congressional race in rural, upstate New York went Democrat for the first time in more than a hundred years.

What does it mean? It really depends on your party.

The morning after. A rueful-looking Barack Obama waves while crossing the south lawn at the White House on Wed., Nov. 4, following the off-year elections. (Charles Dharapak/Associated Press)

Let's look at the races and the excuses being offered.

The Democrats point out, correctly, that for the past 24 years the governor races in Virginia and New Jersey, which are always held the year after the presidential election, have always resulted in a victory for the party opposing the president.

In every case that result had no effect on subsequent presidential votes.

Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Bush actually went on to win second terms despite losses in these states. So there is not much of a bellwether factor here.

In Virginia, Democrats say their candidate, Creigh Deeds, ran away from Barack Obama's presidency, telling a reporter in a widely publicized retort that he was not an Obama Democrat.

That remark and Deeds's refusal to have much to do with the White House showed up in the exit polling.

African-Americans made up 20 per cent of Obama's support in Virginia last year. Deeds support from that group fell by half.

In 2008, 30 per cent of the state's Hispanic vote supported Obama, Deeds managed only 20 per cent; the same with the youth vote.

Clearly the young sat on their hands for this race. No Obama, no energy.

Voting local?

Democrats also point out that the Republican winner Bob McDonnell never criticized the president, never mentioned his name.

He was not about to take on the president in a state that borders on Washington, particularly in the heavily populated north where Obama is popular.

McDonnell stuck to state transportation issue and the promise of more jobs. This race was largely one of local issues, not national concerns.

Republicans, of course, and many editorialists say there couldn't be a more national issue than jobs.

The Republicans also make several strong points that were evident in the exit polls. For one, there was movement in the much fought-over independent vote, with a sizeable number moving to the GOP.

Also, the Republicans did a much better job turning out their core supporters.

When you parse the Republican vote, you see much stronger support this time from white males, who said they were worried about big-spending programs, potential deficits and high unemployment.

All issues that were central to the McDonnell campaign and could be levelled against Obama's policies.

Many elderly voters appeared to be frightened about their health-care coverage, very uncertain about Obama's projected health-care reforms, which they believe could diminish their current coverage.

Seniors came in droves the GOP.

The Obama magic?

In New Jersey, the Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine was unpopular and trailed in the polls by double digits at the campaign's beginning.

Most voters were unhappy with his handling of the economy and the high unemployment in the state.

Corzine also ran a negative campaign, which angered independent voters, according to some exit polls. Obama did campaign for Corzine, on more than one occasion in fact. His supporters say that helped Corzine make a much closer race for the governor's mansion.

Many Republicans are now saying Obama was not a factor in this state. That his magic has gone.

More excuses

Perhaps the biggest upset came in upstate New York, where the 23rd congressional district runs along the Canadian border.

This one was the Republicans' turn for excuses. The party leadership claimed that bad handling of the nomination turned up a candidate who was too moderate.

A state assemblywoman, Dede Scozzafava supported abortion rights and same-sex marriage, and that infuriated right-wing Republicans who ran a more conservative candidate in the race under a different, vote-splitting banner.

That move, and the vitriol that accompanied it, forced Scozzafava to withdraw at the last minute and lend her support to the Democrat.

State Democrats argue that voters had been drifting to their party anyway in upstate New York.

But above all, they say, this victory showed that the internecine warfare between the right and moderate wings of the Republican party is the reason the GOP can't win a national campaign.

So much for the excuses.

Nervous Dems

What Tuesday's results ultimately indicate is that Republican voters had the greater intensity in the two states with the biggest prizes and won those votes by turning out their base.

Independents told exit pollsters that they were concerned about jobs and the efforts to deal with the economy. But they also stressed that they were voting on state leadership not Washington's.

In fact, in Virginia, despite the Republican victory, 57 per cent of the voters told those exit pollsters that they had a favourable view of the president.

The upshot here is that the fight goes on within the Republican party. It still needs leadership and a platform.

At the same time, President Obama has probably inherited an unwelcome problem.

Nervous, moderate Democrats who won 2008 races in traditionally Republican districts, or the so-called purple ones that swing both ways, may well be rethinking their support of the big spending projects such as health care and economic stimulus.

In fact, it may even lead some to withhold support in Congress for the president's efforts on these fronts.

The winds that were behind Obama have, at least for the moment, shifted.

Obama the man is popular, his issues less so. There is a big selling job ahead.