The Obama factor
Henry Champ
A couple of votes to keep your eye on
Last Updated: Wednesday, December 2, 2009 | 12:09 PM ET
By Henry Champ, special to CBC News
Henry Champ
INSIDE WASHINGTON
About the author

Henry Champ has been one of the world's top foreign correspondents for most of his 40 years in journalism. Until his retirement in November 2008, he was CBC Newsworld's authority on Washington, D.C., where he continues to live. A leading Canadian voice on the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship, Champ continues to write a regular column for CBCNews.ca
There were dark times for President Barack Obama during the summer.
He was being pummelled at town hall meetings and other political events as the country's elected representatives sought to justify their existence to hometown voters and seek, at least they say, direction for the future.
Just a couple of months ago, his Republican opponents were scoring points on an almost daily basis by scaring voters with often outrageous charges about the president's health-care and economic recovery plans.
Both, they argued, would consign the U.S. to a future of monumental debt and limited world power.
It helped the president's critics that this was the summer and that the 24-hour news networks needed to fill vacant airtime by covering every meeting possible, no matter how small, and assigning these gatherings an importance they didn't deserve.
New Jersey boys: Barack Obama and Gov. Jon Corzine at the Newark airport on their way to a rally on Oct. 1, 2009. (Gerald Herbert/Associated Press) The battering the president took over the summer had an impact on his poll numbers and also on the loyalty factor within his own party.
In the process, two men, both Democrats and both running for governor, made key decisions about how close to hew to their president's path, decisions that one of them is going to regret.
Different roads
In Virginia, former state senator Creigh Deeds decided to hold his candidacy aloof from the White House.
When asked by a reporter on the trail whether he was an Obama Democrat, he famously replied, "No, I'm a Deeds Democrat."
At the time, Deeds was neck-and-neck with his Republican opponent Bob McDonnell.
Deeds campaign refused any help from the White House, which meant there would be no visits from the president despite the fact that Obama had won the state handily in November, the first Democratic victory there in generations for a presidential candidate. (Late last week, Deeds relented, however, and Obama showed up for one-day rally in Norfolk.)
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine was trailing his Republican opponent Chris Christie.
Corzine's first term as governor had not been successful. In fact, it was ordinary at best and he was heading for a loss.
Obama, too, was on a downward track at the time but that didn't stop Corzine from taking up his president's offer of help.
He invited Obama to show up at three mammoth campaign events. His television ads featured Corzine and Obama together.
These ads talked of the partnership between the state and the president. In New Jersey, it was all Obama, all the time.
So what's the result?
Obama recovered from his summertime malaise.
His health-care plan looks on track to pass before the end of the year, as he had called for. And that is even with the public-option plank — government-run health insurance — which Republicans had used as a weapon to bludgeon him.
Also, the Dow Jones index passed the 10,000 mark, a key psychological barrier, and there were several very successful addresses to the nation.
In short, Obama's approval ratings strengthened.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, Deeds now trails by 11 points.
It looks like young voters and African-Americans, who turned the tide for Obama in Virginia a year ago, have chosen to sit this one out.
In New Jersey, Corzine has righted his ship and currently has a seven-point lead.
The governor has been making it clear at every stop that he owes his turnaround to the "leadership and brilliance" of the president.
Fight of the ultra-right
Close followers of American politics will know that the president has problems with the moderate wing of his party.
But as E.J.Dionne wrote in the Washington Post: "The trajectory in both Virginia and New Jersey sends a message to many moderate congressional Democrats worried about the 2010 elections; whatever problems Obama may cause them, they almost certainly can't win without him."
This is an off-season for elections here. But there is a third race to watch on Tuesday night as well, in the 23rd congressional district of New York.
For decades this has been a Republican stronghold in the rural, northern part of the state. The election is caused by the elevation of John McHugh, a moderate Republican, to the post of Secretary of the Army.
The key word here is moderate.
Districts in upstate New York have been trending Democrat. Knowing this, the local Republican leadership nominated Dede Scozzafava, a state assemblywomen who is in the mould of McHugh.
She is conservative on many fiscal issues but supports gay rights and abortion rights. At the same time, she has the support of the National Rifle Association, important in this district where hunting is a strong community tradition.
But to many in the Republican party, particularly many of these outside the district, Scozzafava is too liberal and out-of-step on the core right-wing issues. For them, she is what's called a RINO — Republican in name only.
Mindful of the struggle ahead for the GOP platform in the 2010 election cycle, right-wingers have financed the campaign of Doug Hoffman, who is running on the Conservative Party ticket.
His mantra is small government, lower taxes, individual liberties and a strong national defence.
His supporters include Sarah Palin, whose endorsement said: "Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of 'blurring the lines' was not an appropriate way to win elections."
The biggest fight in the 23rd has become that between the right and moderate wings of the Republican party. The biggest prize, it seems, is not winning the district but getting the majority of GOP votes.
In the meantime, Democrat Bill Owens, whose chances of winning were slim and none when this all started, is now expected to sneak in.
So put this column aside and watch for the results in these three, off-cycle elections that normally would never be of much concern to anyone outside of the immediate voters.
They will be certainly picking through the bones in Washington the morning after.
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