LARRY ZOLF:
Chicken politics
CBC News Viewpoint | Oct. 12, 2004 | More from Larry Zolf
Veteran journalist and Canadian political expert Larry Zolf is a regular contributor to CBC News Online. Larry has been a critic, reporter, producer and consultant for CBC news and current affairs since he joined the CBC in 1962. Born and raised in North End Winnipeg, the hotbed of general strikes and socialism, Larry has covered stories such as integration in Mississippi and the October Crisis in Quebec. He was one of the hosts of the CBC's flagship current affairs television show "This Hour Has 7 Days." He is now retired.
The recent flurry of chicken politics started after the speech from the throne with a sub-amendment by Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Québécois that Stephen Harper said he'd support. That raised the possibility of a Liberal defeat in the House.
Paul Martin couldn't get a dissolution on defeat because he hadn't passed any divisions in the House. Governor General Adrienne Clarkson would have to refuse him the right to dissolution and would call on Harper to try to form a government.
Having survived the Bloc's sub-amendment by a unanimous vote, Martin has shown real skill. Still, he faces the main amendment to the throne speech, which Harper will move. The key here is the Bloc's response. If it votes with the Tories, there could be a defeat of the Liberals and, again, the Governor General would call on Harper to govern.
If Duceppe deals with the Liberals, the game of chicken will peter out and the Liberals will have passed hurdle number two. They will have two major divisions under their belt and can afford to go ahead with their legislative agenda.
The Liberal throne speech is designed to give Martin enough confidence votes passed so that government-making doesn't pass from his hands into Harper's. Harper as prime minister, even temporarily, would be a massive sea change in Canadian politics.
The Bloc has a real left-wing base and doesn't have any fears of an early election. At the moment they're in receipt of millions of dollars for the votes they received in Quebec in the last election. They're certain to hold all their seats in a quick run-off, but don't want to be seen as supporting a right-wing national party. In any event, Clarkson would have to ask them if they would support the Tories long enough to bring some order to the 38th Parliament.
But it seems that Harper has very little chance of making any kind of deal with the Bloc. Harper is then free to play the Opposition leader to the hilt, attacking the Liberals for waste, corruption and arrogance in government. He keeps his troops happy that way and keeps the media on their toes.
He knows the Bloc will keep the Liberals alive because the Bloc likes the child-care program, the health accord and the fiscal imbalance issue, all of which were in the throne speech as amended by the Bloc.
Duceppe has such a good hand he can safely bail out the Liberals for a couple of years. The only stumbling block in all this is the ballistic missile defence, which the Bloc opposes, but the Liberals and Tories could join forces on. In any event, Duceppe knows that the rumours of the Liberals being toppled early are just that – rumours.
Martin understands the minority game. He realizes he must pass enough House divisions before he's defeated and can then call for a dissolution from Clarkson, who must grant it to him. The throne speech will thus be a milestone in Martin's survival in the House; so will his child-care and cities programs. Martin will then have most of his agenda in place. He'll also avoid having to handle the same-sex marriage confrontation until a year from now.
Martin will be very careful with the keys to his kingdom. He is not governing as if he has a majority; he's governing on the basis of being able to sideline Harper while keeping the NDP and the Bloc on his side. This divide-and-conquer role suits Martin and his tough handlers well.
Still, Harper is looking cool these days. He senses a weakness in Martin that he can exploit. He sees Martin as a ditherer and has sold that image to the media. He sees the Liberals in decline and feels that Martin will soon have serious leadership rivals to deal with. Harper sees time on his side and relishes the media constantly checking with him on whether Martin can be defeated on the throne speech.
Harper knows that Martin is safe for now, but he's not saying so. His coolness jars, in contrast to Martin's nervousness. Harper has a good hand and a great poker face and is prepared to play chicken if he has to.
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