LARRY ZOLF:
The incomparable Martin
CBC News Viewpoint | May 7, 2004 | More from Larry Zolf
Recently, before Paul Martin's visit to the White House and Joe Clark's publicized choice of Martin over Stephen Harper, both Liberal and Tory insiders were talking of 60 to 80 seats for Martin if he calls a spring election. All these skeptics were relying on the John Turner comparison as the basis of their analysis.
Turner, they noted, was a former finance minister like Martin. Turner inherited his prime ministership from Pierre Trudeau; Martin got his from Jean Chrétien. Both men came into office with high expectations; both were shown to be critically disavowed by a volatile electorate.
But is the comparison reasonable? Turner at least could show he had won a vigorous leadership race in 1984. Martin's leadership race was pure sleepy-time in the valley. But Turner feared Trudeau and gave in to Trudeau's last-minute patronage appointments. Martin has no such patronage list to worry about.
Turner was rusty as a leader, having left Trudeau in 1975 and spent too much of
his time at Winston's restaurant and too little in running for the leadership. Martin's been running for the leadership since day one of his defeat in 1990 and has never stopped running.
Turner faced Brian Mulroney, whose contacts and base were all in Quebec and the francophone areas of Canada. Mulroney as an opponent makes Stephen Harper look like a pale and wan child by comparison. Turner never got to meet the president of the United States and survive to tell the tale. Turner was beaten by over 200 Mulroney seats, the worst defeat in Canadian history.
Turner was bad on television and outgunned in the TV debates. Martin is a cool debater and will be so well groomed by Earnscliffe Strategy he'll mop the floor with Harper. Turner sat outside politics when he quit Trudeau. Martin quit Chrétien, but didn't give up on the leadership and led his caucus supporters as a guerrilla leader.
Turner had no real base in Quebec and no significant Quebec lieutenant. Martin is a Quebec minister who has Jean Lapierre as his lieutenant. Martin also has soft nationalist views that will get him some francophone seats in Quebec. In the 1984 landslide, Turner had the remnants of Trudeau's machine in Quebec and took 17 seats to Mulroney's 58.
There is really no comparison at all between Martin and Turner. Turner was frightened to death of Trudeau. Martin has nothing but contempt for Chrétien and sees him as his inferior. Had it not been for adscam, Martin would have been in Mulroney landslide mode; he would be as familiar and popular a figure in politics as Louis St. Laurent.
Pessimists in his own party are telling Martin to go to the polls early not because they feel he needs a mandate from the electorate but because if he hangs on things will only get worse. He'll come in with less than a majority and could, if Ontario turns on him, be beaten by Harper. The latest polls show the Joe Clark warning about Harper and the great
optics of the Martin-Bush meeting play right into Martin's hands.
Martin now resembles Trudeau in 1968 – minus the charisma. Martin's efforts at settling adscam are now slowly but surely proving him right, not wrong, in facing the scandal head on. Martin also gambled on seeing the beleaguered Bush in Washington. If Bush had said no to a request for a visit, Martin would have been condemned as too
weak, too leftish for Bush's attention. That would have cost him points in the polls. Instead, Martin lobbied hard for a presidential summit and got one.
Above all, Martin knew if he were successful with Bush, as Chrétien definitely was not, he would be distancing himself from Chrétien in a most positive way. Martin showed a mastery of American politics and occupied centre stage in Washington for two whole days. He promised to beef up our defence forces and to place a secretariat in Washington to look after our interests. He also dazzled a Washington audience with a major speech, and wooed Democratic senators and leaders on cattle exports and softwood lumber.
In Washington, Martin displayed his strong suit, which is international finance, business and diplomacy. Chrétien was Bill Clinton's golfing buddy and Clinton had no reason to dislike us. Bush had plenty of reasons, given our refusal to join the coalition for the war in Iraq.
Historians will see Martin as a man who gambled and won a poker hand from the Yankees, who controlled the pot and dealt the cards. Martin did this without cozying up and being Mulroneyish, and was praised for that by the National Post.
Martin is indeed incomparable. Martin the expert tycoon turned politician shows he's got the right instincts, and the nerve, for playing the game of politics.
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LARRY ZOLF
POLITICAL COMMENTATOR
Veteran journalist and Canadian political expert Larry Zolf is a regular contributor to CBC News Online. Larry has been a critic, reporter, producer and consultant for CBC news and current affairs since he joined the CBC in 1962. Born and raised in North End Winnipeg, the hotbed of general strikes and socialism, Larry has covered stories such as integration in Mississippi and the October Crisis in Quebec. He was one of the hosts of the CBC's flagship current affairs television show "This Hour Has 7 Days." He is now retired.
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