LARRY ZOLF:
Unite the Right politics
CBC News Viewpoint | October 16, 2003 | More from Larry Zolf
Many images pour into the mind of this reporter as he wades through the huge amounts of print and TV coverage of the Harper-MacKay deal. First and foremost was Harper at a TV news conference invoking E.C. Manning's political realignment theories as the key from his side of the deal.
E.C. Manning was one of the founders of Social Credit and the father of Preston Manning. E.C. Manning was also the Social Credit premier of Alberta for 25 years. He was also the host of radio's Back To The Bible Hour.
Social Credit and Manning came to power with evangelist William Aberhart in 1935, having defeated the United Farmers of Alberta premier J.E. Brownlee, who had been implicated in a seduction of one of his secretaries. Brownlee was, in the Social Credit view, the typical urban sinner. In E.C. Manning's world view, there was moral purity on the Social Credit side and immorality on the other side.
E.C. Manning also believed in Social Credit and the international Jewish bankers' conspiracy. This was the milieu of the Manning view of the 1930s Great Depression. Manning and his followers were soon morphed into a highly successful fiscal dynasty based on the merger of fiscal conservatism and social conservatism into one package.
In Stephen Harper's world view, the two isms are fiercely wedded together as E.C. Manning's dream of a realigned right wing party seems to be unfolding. The dream was also son Preston's, and Harper was Preston's number one disciple. The Alliance is weighed down by the Manning traditions it carries on right into the new Conservative Party of Canada.
Social conservatism will prove to be a big thorn in the paw of the new united right. Harper led his Alliance into a pro-Iraq war stance that was anathema to most Canadians and truly opposed by Quebecers. Same-sex marriage is popular in Quebec and not with the united right. Capital punishment and anti-abortion rights are staples of the new united right and are not mainstream views.
Everyone agrees that Ontario is the key battleground in the next election, but Ontario has just elected 72 progressive, socially liberal McGuinty MPPs. Nor does Ontario really want to be led by western regional Alberta politicians who have a funny money background and a touch of a racist one to boot. After the full blush of publicity dies down, Ontario, Liberal both provincially and federally, will opt for Paul Martin whose ideology is flexible and will be even more flexible as the new united right expands to fruition.
It is interesting, however, how quickly the Unite the Right movement stopped the media instantly in their tracks. Now the media are even talking of a minority government with the bulk of new Tory seats coming from Ontario.
Equally important is that the media are also suggesting that Martin's timetable has been completely upset. Martin will not be able to go to the polls in April because that would be unfair to the new party of the right and would backlash against Martin if Canadians thought Martin was being unfair to the new party.
Some are even suggesting that the new party will also slow down Martin's moves to oust Jean Chrétien too quickly out of office. Chrétien's help may indeed be useful in a campaign with the new united right. It may now not pay for Martin to distance himself too far from the Chrétien legacy. Martin may need that Chrétien legacy so he can go left and outflank the new Tory party in the centre and the right.
No longer are people talking of a 1984 scenario that is a landslide for Martin. People are thirsty for an alternative to the Liberals and the polls show that this new fused Tory party can be that alternative. Martin has to rethink his whole approach to left-wing liberalism. Crowded on the right side by what could prove to be a popular conservative party, Martin may have no choice but to move left and keep stars like Sheila Copps and John Manley in his cabinet.
Likewise, Martin must keep his ties to the business community intact. That is trickier now. The new Conservative Party of Canada will quickly be embraced by Bay Street and funded accordingly. Bay Street will have two national parties to call its own. Bay Street will be very leery of any Paul Martin move to the left.
Still Martin is adroit enough to meet these challenges. Martin has going for him the magical number of 101 francophone seats in Canada. Brian Mulroney used to brag that he who had this magical 101 number would win any election in Canada. Martin has that 101 number now. The beauty of that is that when Ontario senses that Martin and the Liberals have French Canada, Ontario will want to be on side with the Martin Liberals as well.
At the same time, Martin is fighting tooth and nail the new Conservative Party in its western redoubts. Here Martin has a fresh face and a fresh start to go for him as Mulroney had in 1984 when, as a Quebecer, he swept Ontario and the West. If the West senses Martin can carry Ontario and Quebec and the rest of the francophone seats, then the West may want to be in a Martin government, too.
Martin's strategy will also change because of the new Conservative Party of Canada. Before the fusion, Martin was tempted to stay right of centre, a sharp contrast to Chrétien's left-of-centre stance. Martin was prepared to leave a vacuum on his left, prepared to let the NDP have a run at him from the left side. Now Martin is facing a new party that is so far to the right it leaves Martin standing in the centre and willing to move a bit left and knock the NDP right out of the box.
Martin will let Canadian fears of the new Conservative Party, the Canadian Republican Party, frighten moderate voters into his ranks. He learned a lesson from the McGuinty Liberals who inherited the moderate Ontario votes, which feared Ernie Eves and his far right Republican North agenda. The same kind of fears will draw many moderate Ontario voters into Martin's camp.
The new Conservative Party is bad news for Layton and the NDP. Now the NDP will have to fight the Liberals under Martin, whose policies will be pro-business but liberal enough to woo Ontario voters fearful of the extremism they sense in the new Conservative Party.
Martin also benefits from the Alliance federation of the Mannings, father and son, and all the Reform and Alliance controversial problems of the past. Canadians have no reason to believe the new Conservative Party of Canada has left behind it the extremism of Social Credit, Reform and the Alliance.
All in all, Paul Martin, who is no ideologue, will be free to literally steal ideas from the new Conservative Party and from the NDP. Martin still has a full house in his poker hand.
Now, too, Martin will no longer be an enigma, a kind of rubbery politician. The new challenge from the right will transform Martin into a real fighter and politician at last. Martin is the real winner in the Unite the Right politics.
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LARRY ZOLF
POLITICAL COMMENTATOR
Veteran journalist and Canadian political expert Larry Zolf is a regular contributor to CBC News Online. Larry has been a critic, reporter, producer and consultant for CBC news and current affairs since he joined the CBC in 1962. Born and raised in North End Winnipeg, the hotbed of general strikes and socialism, Larry has covered stories such as integration in Mississippi and the October Crisis in Quebec. He was one of the hosts of the CBC's flagship current affairs television show "This Hour Has 7 Days." He is now retired.
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