Scientists seek better way to do climate report
Last Updated: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 | 1:57 PM ET
The Associated Press
Related
Internal Links
- Arctic ice melting faster than feared: study
- Arctic warming will cost world billions: Pew study
- Slowdown in warming may be due to water vapour: study
- UN climate report hurt by errors on glaciers
- Himalayan glaciers warning not backed up: UN
- Cold snap doesn't disprove global warming: experts
- University to probe possible climate data bias
A steady drip of small errors is exposing what scientists are calling "the weaker link" in the Nobel Peace Prize-winning series of authoritative international reports on global warming.
The flaws — and the erosion it caused in public confidence — have some scientists calling for drastic changes in how future United Nations climate reports are done. A push for reform being published in Thursday's issue of Nature comes on top of a growing clamor for the resignation of the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The work of the climate change panel, or IPCC, is often portrayed as one massive tome. But it really is four separate reports on different aspects of global warming, written months apart by distinct groups of scientists.
No errors have surfaced in the first and most well-known of the reports, which said the physics of a warming atmosphere and rising seas is man-made and incontrovertible. So far, four mistakes have been discovered in the second report, which attempts to translate what global warming might mean to daily lives around the world.
"A lot of stuff in there was just not very good," said Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the first report. "A chronic problem is that on the whole area of impacts, getting into the realm of social science, it is a softer science. The facts are not as good."
A dismal year
It's been a dismal winter for climate scientists after the high point of winning the 2007 Nobel, along with former vice-president Al Gore, for championing efforts to curb global warming and documenting its effects.
- In November, stolen private emails from a British university climate center embarrassed a number of scientists for their efforts to stonewall climate skeptics. The researchers were found to have violated Britain's Freedom of Information laws.
- In December, the much-anticipated climate summit of world leaders in Copenhagen failed to produce a meaningful mandatory agreement to curb greenhouse gases.
- Climate legislation in the United States, considered key to any significant progress in slowing global warming, is stalled.
- Some Republican U.S. senators, climate skeptics and British newspapers have called for Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, to resign. They contend he has financial conflicts of interest involving his role with the climate panel and a green-energy foundation he set up. He has vigorously denied any conflicts.
- And in recent weeks, a batch of mistakes have been uncovered in the second of the four climate research reports produced in 2007.
That second report — which examines current effects of global warming and forecasts future ones on people, plants, animals and society — at times relied on government reports or even advocacy group reports instead of peer-reviewed research. Scientists say that's because there is less hard data on global warming's effects.
Nine different experts told The Associated Press that the second report — because of the nature of what it examines — doesn't rely on standards as high or literature as deep as the more quoted first report.
The end result is that the document on the effects of climate change promotes the worst of nightmares and engages in purposeful hyping, said longtime skeptic John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville.
Scientists — including top U.S. government officials — argue that the bulk of the reports are sound.
"The vast majority of conclusions in the IPCC are credible, have been through a very rigorous process and are absolutely state of the science, state of the art about what we know of the climate system," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco, who runs the agency that oversees much of the U.S. government's climate research.
The problems found in the IPCC 2007 reports so far are mostly embarrassing:
- In the Asian chapter, five errors in a single entry on glaciers in Himalayas say those glaciers would disappear by 2035 — hundreds of years earlier than other information suggests — with no research backing it up. It used an advocacy group as a source. It also erroneously said the Himalayan glaciers were melting faster than other glaciers.
- A sentence in the chapter on Europe says 55 per cent of the Netherlands is below sea level, when it's really about half that amount.
- A section in the Africa chapter that talks about northern African agriculture says climate change and normal variability could reduce crop yields. But it gets oversimplified in later summaries so that lower projected crop yields are blamed solely on climate change.
- There's been a longstanding dispute about weather extremes and economics. The second report says that there are more weather disasters than before because of climate change and that it is costing more. The debate continues over whether it is fair to say increased disaster costs are due to global warming or other societal factors such as increased development in hurricane-prone areas.
In Thursday's issue of the journal Nature, four IPCC authors call for reform, including Christy, who suggests the outright dumping of the panel itself in favor of an effort modeled after Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia. A fifth author, writing in Nature, argues the IPCC rules are fine but need to be better enforced.
In response, Chris Field of Stanford University, the new head of the second report team, said that he welcomes the scrutiny and vows stricter enforcement of rules to check sources to eliminate errors in future reports; those are to be produced by the IPCC starting in 2013.
Many IPCC scientists say it's impressive that so far only four errors have been found in 986 pages of the second report, with the overwhelming majority of the findings correct and well-supported.
However, former IPCC Chairman Bob Watson said, "We cannot take that attitude. Any mistakes do allow skeptics to have a field day and to use it to undermine public confidence, private sector confidence, government confidence in the IPCC."
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- Air Canada confident it can reach deal with pilots
- Travellers flying Air Canada can keep booking their flights as negotiations continue with a new federally appointed mediator to help resolve an ongoing contract dispute between the airline and its pilots. more »
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- Four former B.C. attorneys general are joining a coalition of health and justice experts calling for the legalization of marijuana. more »
- Whitney Houston's funeral to be held Saturday
- Pop star Whitney Houston's funeral service will be held Saturday in the New Jersey church where she first showcased her singing talents as a child. more »
- CN blamed for fatal train derailment in Illinois
- CN is being blamed for a 2009 train derailment in Illinois, in which several cars went off the tracks and caught fire, killing one person and injuring seven others. more »
Latest Technology & Science News Headlines
- New iPad anticipated in March
- The latest version of Apple's iPad tablet will launch in early March, according to blog and media reports this week. more »
- Higgs boson hunt aided by energy boost
- The world's largest particle accelerator is ramping up its beam energy in hopes that scientists will learn definitively this year whether the last undiscovered particle in the Standard Model of Physics exists. more »
- Nortel hit by suspected Chinese cyberattacks for a decade
- Hackers based in China enjoyed widespread access to Nortel's computer network for nearly a decade, according to a report. more »
- U.S. weighs steep nuclear arms cuts
- The Obama administration is weighing options for sharp new cuts to the U.S. nuclear force, including a reduction of up to 80 per cent in the number of deployed weapons, The Associated Press has learned. more »
Bob McDonald's Blog
Glacier Discovery Walk: Will the visitor centre enhance the view? Feb. 14, 2012 9:22 AM Environment minister Peter Kent has announced the construction of a new Glacier Discovery Walk and visitor centre on the Icefields Parkway in Jasper National Park. It raises the issue of how to balance commercial development in our National Parks against the preservation of the last refuges of wilderness.
Quirks & Quarks
- February 11: Inside the Mind of a Neandertal Feb. 10, 2012 4:01 PM Can we get inside the mind of a species that's been dead for 30,000 years? A new book, How to Think Like a Neanderthal, suggests we can. The authors reconstruct a creature like us in many ways, but with important differences.
Latest Features
- Online surveillance critics accused of supporting child porn
- Whitney Houston's funeral to be held Saturday
- HMCS Corner Brook collision damage extensive
- Online surveillance bill targets child porn: Toews
- Mooning Queen proves costly for Australian man
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- MacKay says submarine fleet has 'spotty' history
- Man kidnapped at Greyhound station escapes captors
- Stanley Cup rioter seen in brick attack on cop

