350 years of science, now under siege
- December 7, 2009 12:28 PM |
- By Quirks
By Bob McDonald, host of the CBC science radio program Quirks & Quarks
Bob McDonald
The world’s oldest scientific institution, the Royal Society in London, is celebrating its 350th anniversary this year with the online release of original documents from its more famous members, such as Sir Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and even Benjamin Franklin. Meanwhile in Canada, 500 scientists have sent an open letter to Prime Minister Stephen Harper saying that their voices are not being heard as he heads to the climate talks in Copenhagen.
When it comes to climate change, science seems to have taken a back seat.
The Royal Society was formed to promote scientific discoveries through weekly meetings and discussions, assembling a library and publishing of the world’s longest-running journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society.
For a scientist, presenting to the Society was the ultimate test, the original peer review and a great honour when accepted. It was the beginning of the Age of Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution, when science was blossoming as the best tool to discover the wonders of nature. Newton explored the properties of light and calculated the force of gravity. Darwin saw through time, tracing the evolution of life through natural selection. Even the great explorers reported their discoveries to the Society upon their return. For example, Captain James Cook described how he used sauerkraut to maintain the health of his crew during the long voyages.
So how is it that after three-and-a-half centuries of amazing success, scientists are now struggling to have their findings accepted by the public and politicians?
The Canadian 500 are advising the Prime Minister that changes to the Earth’s climate are happening faster than predicted and that our country needs to take more serious action to reduce carbon emissions. These scientists are not voicing an opinion; this conclusion comes from direct measurements, field experiments and peer-reviewed publications. In other words, their body of evidence is in the tradition the Royal Society, founded 350 years ago.
The scientists feel the need to speak up because, somehow, their findings have been overshadowed by a powerful campaign to cast doubt in the public and political minds, thereby stalling further action.
Many of the 500 Canadian scientists have been on Quirks & Quarks describing their observations of the changing Earth. Dr. David Schindler, Killam Memorial Chair and Professor of Ecology at the University of Alberta, studies Canada’s diminishing fresh water resources. Dr. Andrew Weaver, a Nobel Laureate in the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Victoria, studies world climate data. And Dr. John Smol, Canada Research Chair in Environmental Change at Queen’s University, has been following changes in Arctic lakes. These are just three of thousands of well- qualified scientists who publish in respected journals. They are not expressing opinions; they are describing what they see.
We are often criticized on our radio program for not including people on the other side of the climate “debate" to provide balance. If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it. But such a body of evidence does not exist.
Instead, skeptics claim that the Earth is warming naturally, that volcanoes contribute more CO2 than humans do, that changes in the sun are responsible for warming the planet, and a host of other claims. Check out how the Royal Society answers these claims.
Here’s a similar rebuttal by Scientific American magazine.
The evidence for climate change is strong because air bubbles, trapped in Antarctic ice cores for 800,000 years, don’t lie about past climates. Satellites don’t lie about rising ocean temperatures and the laws of physics don’t change, just because someone said something in an e-mail. (Check out our latest documentary on rising sea levels for the real story).
Since 1660, the members of the Royal Society have understood that science is simply a tool to understand nature. Through it we have discovered the universe and our place in it, in exquisite detail.
Now that same scientific tool is seeing unprecedented environmental changes on a global scale. The scientists are waving a red flag. They are also pointing to sensible solutions to the problem. Let’s listen and give them the respect they’ve earned over the past three and a half centuries.
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Comments (191)
Bob,
The only assault on science was the scandalous and surreptitious actions by the Hadley CRU 'scientists' in:
1) admitting there is NO warming and it is a 'travesty' they can't explain it";
2) destroying files and e-mails in response to FOI requests by other scientists;
3) manipulating data to 'hide the decline' in temperatures; and
4) the perversion of the peer-review process by blocking from publication papers of scientists who disagree!
Where is your outrage over THAT?
Bravo Bob! This should be required reading. But as we all know, what's happening this time is that too many plan to make too much money from old-fashioned energy sources. They are paying 'scientists' to dispute the hard facts about climate change, just enough to create the illusion of a serious debate. It's nothing of the sort of course. Their actions are scandalous.
Thank you for your well informed, well reasoned rationale!
Well, it's unfortunate that, in our time, more people are willing to forfeit their belief in facts and science.
Maybe they just don't want to believe it.
Science and scientific research has been the driving force behind building western civilization to what it is today.
Nobody would deny that science has helped Humanity in almost every aspect of life, from our physical and mental health, communication, transportation, agriculture and food production, and in our general understanding of how our world works.
Yet, when it comes to something like climate change, people have the nerve to dismiss science, completely, and even go so far as to brand scientists as liars or conspirators.
Why?
Because some people don't want to suffer the inconveniences that will surely come if we were to really make an effort to change our consumption patterns. Simple as that.
Some people stand to suffer more than others, particularly those whose livelihoods are intertwined with the search for, the production of, and the selling of fossil fuels and the related technologies.
Yet, humans are ingenuous creatures. We have the ability to adapt, and to find other ways of doing things...when needed. If our efforts were turned towards finding new sources of energy or finding ways of being more energy-efficient instead of desperately clinging to the Status Quo, we'd surely succeed.
Lastly, it's rather ludicrous that many people choose not to believe in facts, reality and science, but will whole-heartedly believe in a magical, mythical sky-God living in the clouds who created the universe and everything in it.
Thank you for your timely piece. More of us have to stand up to the pseudoscientists and ill informed skeptics of the world. Otherwise we will allow these "flat earth" types dictate the agenda.
"When it comes to climate change, science seems to have taken a back seat."
-------
Yes it certainly has. Data and conclusions are manipulated. Peer review has become Pal review. The "science is settled" is invoked to stifle any scientific discussion. M & M, two great Canadians way above the 500 grant money grovelers, have never been thanked for their contribution to science.
Nice article, Bob. It's good to see a reasonable response to all the online dross being generated by the pro-climate-change lobby and other assorted nutters (I hesitate to call them skeptics since I haven't seen a lot of skeptical reasoning going on...). Lots of links to valuable references as well. Keep up the good work!
Ah it feels good to hear a voice of reason. Keep up the great work Bob.
"Now that same scientific tool is seeing unprecedented environmental changes on a global scale. The scientists are waving a red flag. They are also pointing to sensible solutions to the problem."
Sensible solutions like shutting down the clean industry here and moving production to the much more polluting factories in China?
How will that reduce pollution?
"Met Office to re-examine 160 years of climate data - confidence "shattered"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6945445.ece
Thank you for speaking out. The global-warming-deniers have been gaining ground, thanks to apparent emails from scientists fudging statistics, right-wing radio talking heads, and other questionable sources. Warnings have been there since at least the 70s by Carl Sagan, Suzuki and others, and mainly the evidence before our very eyes. I can't believe the garbage that's being posted by these advocates of continuing to misuse our planet as we always have. Worship of the dollar reigns in the industrial and corporate world, no matter what the cost to the rest of the world.
There's a possibly humorous & enlightening answer to your question about policy makers ignoring science: the Law of Fartcatchers. No, I'm not being scatological. This law is used to analyze political interference in science on many levels, corrections or environmental issues being a few affected areas. Politicians, deputy ministers & the rest, do not generally have any training in digesting scientific literature or even in the specific portfolios they inherit, & may indeed see certain findings as threatening to specific lines of policy. As a fartcatcher follows closely behind their master (the PM or the public), one's reasoning for making decisions inevitably does not include science, with its difficult analysis and unpopular findings, but relies on political power plays and common sense (represented by polls of the public). Science means changing, and change is hard, and I seriously doubt our elected fartcatchers are up to the task.
Thank you Mr. McDonald for saying what must be said. We are at a precipice and can trust only in reason to lead us now.
Gravity is only a "theory". Might I humbly suggest that those who are still in denial go test that "theory" from a great height.
Mr. McDonald,
Is it now your sole intention to insult the intelligence of those who pay your salary with each & every missive you publish?
How dare you use the phrase "good, peer-reviewed scientific publications" when you know fully well that the entire peer review process around Hadley et al has been thrown into disrepute by the Climategate scandal.
You sir, are the true denier, unwilling to face facts that disagree with your political views. The thing I'm most upset about is that a portion of my hard earned tax dollars are allowing you to keep on doing what you are in such a public forum.
Does the CBC's own Rex Murphy know about the Canada 500 along with the two scientifically valid sites offering to debunk the disbelievers' "proof" ?
Maybe Bob could meet Rex on the National as part of the CBC's nightly coverage of this summit ?
Well said Bob. People are perfectly willing to agree with scientific conclusions that make their lives easier or provide new gadgets, but as soon as those conclusions necessitate uncomfortable change, "scientists can't be trusted". Either the public needs to grow up and realize science isn't here for their convenience or science needs the autonomy to bypass the public forum altogether and deal directly with the government.
It's great to see you calling it like you see it, and responding to the absurd demands of your critics head on. There is absolutely no call for "balance" to have some disingenuous hack present the sophist case for doubt, delay and denial.
The science is unequivocal, and the the denials are incoherent and absurd. No better than creationists or alchemists for that matter.
Come on Bob, you are one of my favorite radio and television personalties and you are a really nice guy in person too, but to make a comment like, "350 years of science, now under siege" and it is all Harpers fault is silly fear mongering. Please, do what you do best and stick to the facts and leave out which political party you hate out.
ps I am not a human induced climate change denier. We did it, I accept it and I am have personally made big choices to do my part to cut back.
Harper has made it clear that he is going to pursue his party's usual practice of adopting U.S. policy as their own. We can only hope that Obama pursues a very aggressive strategy against global warming, but he has been a disappointment on every other issue since taking office so we are probably best to follow James Lovelock's advice and prepare the 'lifeboats'. As for listening to scientists, the only ones with a real voice are political scientists advising Harper how to gain more power.
When action on climate change becomes profitable I guarantee these scientists will get the respect they deserve.
I couldn't agree more.
Much of what the deniers say is obvious nonsense. Even though human activity obviously affects the planet on every other front, climate-change deniers would like us to believe that spewing gigatonnes of greenhouse gases and other pollutants into the atmosphere is of no consequence.
Can we continue to pollute the atmosphere without harm? Those who say that climate change is a hoax say yes. Those who believe in science say no. Whom are you going to believe?
How can experimenting with the atmosphere be a good idea? How can polluting the air we breathe be anything but stupid, dangerous, and wrong?
Suppose the Round Earth scientists fudged their data and suppressed papers written by the Flat Earth Society. Would that "prove" that the "Round Earth" theory is a hoax? Would that "prove" that the Earth is flat?
I would be more inclined to take the sceptics seriously and doubt the science of climate change if the sceptics were credible voices on the environment. Almost without exception, they are not. Climate-change deniers simply want a free pass for pollution.
The problem is that we have different criteria for politics and for science. In politics, democracy is the rule. Everyone has a vote, no matter how much or how little he knows about the issues. In science, truth is discovered by an exhaustive process of observation and inference, including extensive discussion and criticism in bodies such as the Royal Society. Only people who are very familar in the evidence are entitled to say what is true and what is not. The opinions of other people, usually the vast majority of the population, do not count.
For example, biologists know as a definitely established fact that evolution is real. The evidence for it is overwhelming. However, many non-scientists are misled into thinking that there is room for doubt about this. Regardless of their numbers, they are wrong.
Similarly, scientists are convinced about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. However, propaganda from oil companies and other sources has led to a popular belief to the contrary.
When science and politics overlap, the different criteria they use can produce serious conflicts. If scientists know that urgent action is needed to combat climate change, but a large part of the population thinks otherwise, what should be done? Democracy may not be good for the future of the world.
We may be fortunate that some influential countries, such as China, are less concerned about democracy than we are.
The evidence for climate change is all around us. Climate sceptics deride the science and ludicrously demand "proof".
What proof do they want? What proof would satisfy them? What would they have to see before accepting man-made climate change?
I have posed this question many times, but never get an answer. The deniers just like to see their names onscreen and their rubbish claims in large-caps --actual thought seems to be beyond them.
Climate-change deniers demand a level of proof that is impossible. There is no proof that would satisfy them.
Humans can clearly devastate landscapes, forests, and oceans. Humans can turn the life-giving rain into acid. Humans can destroy the ozone layer. Pollution clearly damages health. Habitat destruction, overfishing, and hunting harm wildlife. Is it so hard to believe that the garbage we spew into the atmosphere is harmful?
If climate change is a myth, then all the recent climate-change articles published in scientific journals and news reports must be false. It follows that all the scientists warning about climate-change are liars. Clearly, we should put our faith in the scientific giants at the Fraser Institute and the legions of climate sceptics who infest the Internet.
Bob, it is very clear you are a lemming and are fully on the side of the global warming alarmists. If the ClimateGate emails and computer models have not shaken your faith in this religion, then you are a true believer at Al Gore's alter.
If you have an open mind and are a true scientist, like I am, you will go to the site below and spend a lot of time getting yourself up to speed on the scientific evidence against man made global warming.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
Hi Bob ~
I've been doing a lot of reading, watching, and observing, and am less than impressed by what I see as an organised and deliberate attempt to either discredit or silence any meaningful debate on the subject of Climate Change. In an effort to be fair, I have accepted two things: 1) Climate Change may well be a cyclical phenomenon and 2) Humanity's presence, especially in the last 100 years, has had a measurable impact upon the globe (the "Footprint").
I have also had to mitigate my opinion with the knowledge that we Humans are, historically, subject to fits of hubris. While we cannot possibly be held responsible for the massive inner machinations of planet Earth, we can (and MUST) accept responsibility for the known damage(s) we are causing (pollution, environmental degredation / destruction) and seek to diminish and/or stop practices which cause such damage. In essence, it is high time we became more of a Steward of our planet and less of a danger to it. So be it if the planet must follow its natural climate cycles; the least we could do is cease fouling the nest in the manner that we do.
Thanks for the ear.
Wes
Clearly, many critics of climate change science fail to understand that many lines of evidence converge on the conclusion that the climate is getting warmer than it should and threatens the astonishingly complex web of connectedness among the animate and inanimate world. This means US!
However, here in Calgary I'm often presented with some nugget of contrary information (e.g. alleging that some scientists in Britain "fudged the data") whereby someone smugly asserts that this is proof that all lines of evidence supporting climate change are wrong.
If the critics are credible scientists, they must explain what this discrepant information means in the context of the totality of climate evidence, preferably through peer reviewed publications and presentations at major scientific conferences.
Unfortunately, those lacking a sound science education cannot appreciate that an issue as complex as future weather will never be forced into a dichotomous box of "right vs wrong." As Bertrand Russell noted, "the problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
Sound scientific methodology and peer review are the best ways we have against fooling ourselves into thinking that nature actually listens to our spin doctoring. Sorry Mr. Harper and you oil execs, nature cannot be fooled by your spin.
MacDonald is being disingenuous.
To argue that he will not consider opposing viewpoints because they cannot pass peer review is infuriating, given that the peer review process was one of the means that the CRU scientists admittedly abused in order to block criticism.
Plus, the original data was destroyed. There is no way anyone can say that the science is settled if there is no way to check the raw data.
Very good article; thank you for the links.
The big problem is that the scientists and other credible commentators are being pushed aside by the media in favour of the not-so-credible such as the groups who in the past month or so have used Parliament as a PR prop. Such dishonest activity tends to backfire amongst mainstream Canadians who have since learned to correlate dishonesty with climate change activists. Hence mainstream Canadians are more likely to believe the canard that climate scientists are 'cooking their data' - after all this what they see 'their spokesmen', the activists, doing on TV.
Sad to see Bob gloss over the significant evidence of fraud within the UN/CRU/NASA peer review process, then use it to defend his opinion.
As a scientist (BSc, 92), the only significant attention I ever observed related to a peer review process was unfortunately to get funding. As my hypothesis didn't line up with my science faculties’' agenda, I never had the chance to make what I felt could have been a substantial contribution to science. Thanks to Bob and his axis, it looks like many young people will continue to suffer under this required pre-Copernican mindset.
You can't expect reason from the general public on climate change, they do not have the time to sift through the arguments and most people assume they have universal access to the truth.
The enlightenments greatest fallacy is the lies about reasoning they spread because of their scientific ignorance.
See here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYmi0DLzBdQ
Deniers of AGW always say they just want "open" debate - the scientific method - from the "warmies." Then they slam the door shut and try to nail it closed with fictional data and insulting namecalling.
But the facts remain, some obvious and some still a bit obscure. Those facts, emerging into full view serve to confirm that AGW is not only real, but even more imminent than we thought a few years ago.
Thank God for people like you, Bob, willing to raise your voice in the service of truth.
I like to do my own science. I am now going to go and look at the thermometer outside the kitchen window. -2 C Celsius. BTW Lord Jailbird not Centigrade as he wrote in the Canada Post which is a good example of straying into unkbown unexplored territory.
Makes the rest of his opinions on any scientific matter as suspect as that of the liars at East Anglia. Lying might be OK in politics journalism business and cults but it is intolerable in scholarship or science.
The temperature at the Sault airport on my TV Weatherchannel is -5. Five minutes ago it was -6. You see I am being what any scientist must be scropulously honest and impartial. It would benefit and support my argument to have the greatest possible temperature differential but unfortunately it decreased from 4 to a mere three degrees Celsius, Lord BLack. I am now going to check the kitchen window again.
It is now more like minus one and three quarters.
Take the mean and you get that the temperature at 11:35 in Sault Ste Marie downtown is about - 2 and it is about - 5 at the Sault Ste Marie Airport. Celsius of course.
Then you go and do this 365 days of the year and in every community in Canada and as since the official recorded T of every city is the airport T and you will find 1 2 3 4 5 6 degrees Celsius differential in every city all year in every season compared to downtown then you might make the reasonable infernce that airports are colder than cities. Further that cities are warmer because of human activity houses cars vehicles internal combustion engines ovens stoves heaters fireplaces furnaces. Thousands of these produce more heat than an airport terminal. tower or the odd jet engine.
Of course the heat retaining capacity or latent heat of downtown objects including gardens is greater than that of tarmac. Hence cities are warmer. And they are warmer beacause of more humans doing more human things not because of the Sun or cosmic radiation.
I dont know that humans cause global warming but they sure as hell cause urban warming. Add a million cities and...
The conclusion is inescapable.
You just did some science with me. Real science without lies distortions and prevarication. Go ahead and check your outdoor thermometer and the official one for your locality. Prove or disprove my hypothesis.
Wonderfully written, and square on the head. So good to see that there is at least one great science journalist left in the mainstream media.
It would be a logical fallacy to use (1) An Appeal to authority (e.g. Royal Society, Canadian 500) (2) A false equivalence (e.g. Newtons law= Climate change theory) or (3)
Ad ignorantiam (e.g. Climate change is true because we don't know its false)
as a rational basis for decision making in the body politic.
Climate change is empirical theory based on observation. So far, the AGW climate models have failed to predict the climate of the past 8 years without manipulation of data sets and computer code (a logical fallacy called "Moving the Goal Post").
If you wait long enough the climate may continue to cool or it may continue to warm. It will take decades to see what happens.
The AGW theory of climate change is not falsifiable like the Darwin's theory of evolution or Newton's theory of motion and gravitation. Darwin and Newtons theories are predictive and can be tested in the laboratory and the mathematical models are well known and have been tested over hundreds of years with greater levels of accuracy and refinement from their original classical formulation.
Your kidding yourself if you think scientists can model planetary climate over decades. They can't even model the weather several years into the future - it is mathematically impossible due to perturbation problem. This can't even be resolved using Monte Carlo simulations. The IPCC models are projections and estimates - this means it is an opinion - not a fact.
Society would be stupid to make trillion dollar decisions on such a flimsy basis.
The more logical course is to deal with the more serious and tangible problems like pollution, habitat lost and over-fishing.
If you accept the AGW theory, the Canadian contribution to the solution would have no significant effect on the outcome of global warming. The "historical responsibility" is a social not a rational scientific imperative.
Bob,
Thank you for expressing yourself so strongly and clearly on this subject. The internet is drowning in denielist hokum, and it is refreshing to read your opinion on this subject: it gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, good sense will prevail.
Sorry Bob, you are mistaken. I am a senior earth science academic (a one time firm believer in AGW), that became increasingly skeptical over the past ~5 years, even more so in the past year, mainly because DATA was not bearing out what the (simplistic) models had predicted (the Prairies for example are now cooling, within a huge range of variance, over the past decade - download the data from the weather office and see for yourself). The climate models do not propagate errors in the many hundreds of underlying assumptions. Its not as simple as "just CO2" - climate is far more complex than a single variable driver. Water cycle impacts, for example, have still been completely overlooked. Natural variability, sunspots, etc etc, ignored. And now Climategate - I actually took time out to read the emails and model code manipulation and am more disturbed than ever - this is a very serious problem and a huge scientific credibility mess!
I agree with Rex Murphy - we need a reset button on this topic and a far more open way to deal with the complexities of the science and data interpretation. Lets get it out of the political (and media) arena and out of the hands of a few elite academic "stars" - the earth is not in imminent threat of conflagration.
Furthermore I feel your program could most certainly do with a broader range of scientific opinion and journalistic skepticism (akin to White Coat, Black Art). There are MANY eminent scientists that can contribute to serious alternate interpretation and discussion. Credible learned skeptics are not cro-magnons!
Finally, for scientific preciseness in Q&Q, I would ask that in your program you please stop referring to this topic as "Climate Change". The earth is a dynamic non-steady state system and we would all be shocked if it did NOT change as it has over all of geologic history. Do you seriously imply our goal be that climate should be globally static forevermore as it was in 1990? You really mean human caused CO2 driven global warming - now there is a hypothesis we can test with data (and time), and so far in my view of the scientific facts its not looking very good as time goes on.
While I have enjoyed your program for many years, more and more I find myself turning the radio off when the subject of climate comes on this program.
Bravo. Especially liked the paragraph saying how science on the "other side" would get a fair shake - if only it existed. Seems to be the point most of the conspiracy theorists are missing. It's a sad time.
Climategate shows the real scientists don't beleive the science. Since the earth is not warming all the doomsday senarios around it are a joke. Now global warming is climate change and now its climate pollution. Climategate shows most of the scientists embrassing these origanal reports were political scientists. I was sucked right in to this phoney business like so many others.
The Royal Society has become obsolete in the internet age. Its approach is far too restrictive in comparison to the more than 30,000 scientists who disagree with global warming; most of whom have published in peer-reviewed blogs.
The science endorsed by the Royal Society needs to be confronted by the confidence and imagination to believe something else entirely.
Dear Bob,
You state:
"We are often criticized on our radio program for not including people on the other side of the climate “debate" to provide balance. If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it. But such a body of evidence does not exist."
Actually Bob, while it is clear that the planet is indeed heating up, it is not entirely clear what percentage of this is due to mans influence. There is OVERWHELMING evidence that the planet goes through heating and cooling cycles every millennium or so.
Co2 levels determined from ice cores cycle from low to high on a regular basis. This has been reported over and over.
Fossilized trees have clearly demonstrated natural warming and cooling cycles.
The idea of Chloroflourocarbons as being the cause of the ozone hole over the Antartic has been debunked. It is not even clear how old this hole is.
Bob, I realize that you are not a part of the scientific community and cannot critically read scientific journals yourself, but there is a debate, a real one, concerning the exact cause of global warming.
Unfortunately, this would not please the CBC censors. It is also unfortunate that there is so much money at stake and it is such a politically charged topic, that there will never be many open debates on the subject.
Surprisingly one of the premier historical climate scientist on the planet was on KPBS 2 two weeks ago talking about his climate work based on fossilized trees (work published in Science). He stated that is is VERY difficult to discern what impact man is having on global warming. He calculates that warming is faster than it normally would be, but even in the absence of humans, the earth would still be in a warming cycle. This scientist would not be welcome on your program, would he Bob?
CBC was one of the only major media outlets in North America not giving proper attention to these charlatans in England who falsified global temperature data.
You are filtering your guests and filtering your conclusions.
If climate data was so certain, then why hasn't the raw data ever been made available to the public? The very few "climate researchers" that own the data say it is proprietary, and that if they were to disclose it, the data would simply aid the counter argument to man-caused global warming. The "leaked" CRU emails (likely not hacked and not illegal) have help to solidify the notion that science is serving a global political cause.
We may yet look back and regret that we did not accord Stephane Dion the respect he deserved. Politicians with 4 year horizons will never be able to grasp the nettle that is climate change - and the longer we wait, the worse the pain will be. It is difficult for the lay person to understand the science, it is easy to understand the potential pain of the response (curb your energy usage; buy friendly, but expenive, appliances; pay a lot more for items that contribute more GHG's; above all, pay more). That the pain is exagerated for gain (propoganda is powerful) is also important. And, of course, in the event of final proof we can always blame yesterday's governments for all our ills. I sometimes despair of the human race - we are incredibly small minded and self-centred. Couple that with delusions of grandeur and you have a toxic brew. By the time we come to our senses and take a global view it will be so late that the only option we may (if we are lucky) have is to cooperate in developing methods to escape the hell we have created. Still, we will always have those who believe it is god's will anyway.
I am impressed by your statement:
" We are often criticized on our radio program for not including people on the other side of the climate “debate" to provide balance. If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it."
This is a fundamnetal principle. Too often lately "balanced reporting" is defined as publishing extreme opposing statements without reference as to their basis, merit or supporting evidence. This serves to hinder rather than further meaningful discussion. We do better to presume that while we know that we likey to not have a perfect understanding, we are always seeking to better our knowledge. With climate change, there are two primary issues that are often intertwined: (1) is there evidence of climate change and (2) do we underatand how climate change is occurring. Imperfect understanding of the latter does not negate the former. As in most science documentation of a phenominom precedes fuller understanding of the mechanisms.
Thank you Bob for raising this issue. I also find it frustrating that some people are rejecting the claim that the earth is getting warmer and carbon emmissions are partly to blame for them.
There are a lot of areas of society that we can debate. When it comes to sceince, this area is clearer than other topics.
In a lot of cases the climate change deniers have vested interests in the oil industry so a cap on carbon emissions would not be profitable for them.
I enjoy your show.
Thanks to the "Canadian 500".
It would interest me to hear about how our government will receive and respond to the report. It seems to me that our present government has made it a practice to ignore any information which would establish discord with its own ideology.
Bob,
I understand it's upsetting when you find out people you respect were not only wrong but dishonest and unprofessional. However, please don't ignore the East Anglia CODE leak. The email messages only provide context; the code/algorithims used to produce the IPCC and other well-known temperature survey graphs is the real story.
It was deliberately designed to "hide the decline" and pretending otherwise by dismissing the CRU's blatant misrepresentation of data is blindly disingenuous and does more to harm the climate change movement than anything else.
Admit the deliberate obfuscation, or at least the perception of impropriety, and pledge to review data come to an honest conclusion and move on. Plugging your ears, covering your eyes and waggling your tongue at legitimate criticism makes you look more a fool than those implicated in Climategate.
Believe THE TRUTH
THE EARTH IS TIPPING THE EARTH IS TIPPING THE EARTH IS TIPPING moving about on its meandering magnetic axis.
Dramatic Earth tippings has the Earth changing its exposure to both Sun and Moon.
Moon exposure the reason for water movement (ocean level), Sun exposure the reason for the melting of Kilimanjaro.
These tippings for now have alternating cooling and warming happening. Where it is warmer in one area it will be cooler in another. (more water in one area less in another). Thats for now, eventually and again the Arctic becomes tropical and the Ocean resides in Nevada.
It is of GREAT IMPORTANCE to establish a constant monitoring system for Canada's North Magnetic Pole Movements. --- WOBBLING of the EARTH
Bruce Voigt Science
Andrew Weaver is a Nobel Laureate for Peace not in science, the same as Al Gore and Barrack Obama. Be clear and do not presume that awards apply to other areas and awards granting groups don't make mistakes.
Here, here!
Mr. MacDonald-- You too have been very one-sided. There is not 350 years of solid
scientific evidence of global temperatures.
Your science is guessing & wants to spend 45 Trillon a year (to re-order society to science's liking?} on a theory that says doom will be 100 years away & we should decimate the economy today to (possibly) save us. Sir,
your movement is religious not science.
C02 as toxin..plant food.. Ever heard of the ice age, medieval warming period. Climate is complex & to a large degree local in nature.
David
Thanks, Bob. Keep up the good work. Rationalism is under attack by moneyed interest groups. We ordinary citizens don't feel represented by our government. What an embarrassing shame.
Thank you , Bob, for this clear, concise, and powerful statement on the state of the science. The links to rebuttals of the deniers are very useful. I would be interested to hear what you have to say about the current muddying of the waters by the so-called "e-mail scandal" coming out of Britain.
I looked at the pfd on climate change "myths".
The Society answers are filled with "maybes" and "perhaps".
They also argue that burning fossil fuels both warms AND cools the atmosphere.
THIS is the science we are supposed to run after like the last hound in a foxhunt?
Not me.
I wonder, have you had a chance to read the comments on any single climate change story on CBC?
It seems that the disconnect between the scientific consensus and the popular consensus is growing daily with each headed in opposite directions.
Thanks for writing sensibly on the subject, your task is an important one.
I'd love to see you discuss ocean acidification and the looming water shortages more, as both phenomena can't be seen on the personal level yet, but the science on these topics is very informing - exactly like global warming. But, the difference is that on these topics there are no deniers as far as I know!
Today's Calgary Herald reports that Alberta Wildrose Alliance Leader Danielle Smith is urging Canada not to sign an international climate change treaty: "Global warming unproven, Wildrose leader says".
You are sailing on the Titanic. You receive a warning of icebergs ahead. Do you demand proof before slowing down? Do you wait for iceberg science to be "settled" before changing course?
What kind of proof does the Wildrose Alliance want? Evidence for climate change is all around us. By the time we get the "proof" that the Wildrose Alliance demands, it will be too late.
Climate change aside, there are plenty of other good reasons to reduce pollution.
One thing we do know. The Wildrose Alliance, like the Conservatives, are in the pockets of Big Oil. One more reason not to vote for them.
The fact that the Conservatives are not listening to scientists should be no surprise. Many Conservatives will believe events literally described in the Bible before considering scientific evidence. Also, the Conservatives, more than any other group, represent the interests of the rich and powerful. Greed supersedes common sense. If we get Harper et al as a majority government, something much like the Flat Earth Society will be running this country. Good article, Bob!
A hacker goes into the computers of a small university, and selectively chooses a number of emails in order to show some disputable signs that some scientists may have been doing something (we don't quite know exactly what), and it's a big deal. Deniers and lobbyist working for big interests have been lying, dissembling and distorting anything they get their hands on concerning anthropogenic global warming for years, and nobody in cares.
One see the straw in the eyes of others but one does not see the 2x4 in ours, eh?
Thank God for Harper
At least someone is keeping an open mind to consider the data manipulations that have led to the alarmist scam.
Global warming doesn't exist. It's a 150+ year old conspiracy involving tens of thousands of scientists, from hundred of countries, speaking dozens of languages, and getting their money from myriad national, local, educational, corporate, and private sources. Despite the fact that most of these people do not know each other, many of them do not like one another, and despite that their career goals are frequently in conflict with one another, they have banded together in monolithic agreement, forming an elaborate, untraceable conspiracy stretching across three centuries all just to inconvenience big business and secure themselves unexceptional-paying jobs in research and at universities. What's worse, they've cleverly published their so-called "findings" in peer-reviewed publications readily available for anyone with a library card to fact-check and review.
I won't be fooled by all of the dispassionately accumulated, carefully cross-checked mountains of "data." I put my faith in the energy company magnates and the politicians they sponsor who assure me global warming does not exist.
200 years ago the "scientific consensus" was that life could spontaneously generate from a pile of garbage. Was it an "attack on science" to disagree with this conclusion? If people like Bob McDonald and the AGW orthodoxy dominated the Royal Society back then, science would still be where it was at this point. You and others stifling debate don't know what science is, and you are hardly its champion.
The current government of Canada will never move on the well documented evidence about climate change, because their agenda is to the target constituents, the top percentile of political party donors. Unfortunately for the planet, those corporations and affiliations do not consider global warming a critical issues, and/or view the discussion as contrary to their interests, that is, for corporations, the effect upon their stock price in an eighteen month time horizon.
The current government has undermined the democratic process completely in Canada, by aiming its policy communications to that constituent, the top campaign contributors, then staying in power by using their massive advertising budget superiority to media carpet-bomb the masses into compliance with mis-information.
By the way, the Hadley CRU 'scientists' scandal was clearly a plant. This was a planned and orchestrated campaign to discredit the entire scientific community on the topic and findings associated with global warming; human activity is leading to global warming is indisputable.
It makes it very difficult for the average citizen to make an informed opinion, with scientist agreeing or diasgreeing with eachother. Politicians are reluctant to act, because they fear economic hardship. Businesses do not want to spend money and time to look for a better way. I'm totally confused.
I would like to see the electric cars take off. here again we have various opinions. So how is a consumer of transportation suppose to make a decision.
PS For people posting comments about how bad fossil fuels are, that we should stop using them. This will never happen. Mr. McDonald will attest to this.
Fossil fuels are like glucose energy which our body uses. Our body can get energy from fats, protein and carbohydrates. But it prefers glucose because it's easier to use. In fact our body is designed to turn other energy sources to glucose. Fossil will be used as long as we have a supply. Ethanol is a form of fossil fuel. It maybe man made but it uses energy that is stored in plant matter.
Great article sir. I am less impressed with some of the nonsense posted below it.Particularly , "Leo, from Saskatchewan", who claims to be a "senior earth science academic".If Leo has professional credentials which inform his opinion, why does he not use his real name and list his degrees ?
Rex Murphy's idea of starting all over again is absurd, start where ? Anyone , claiming to be a scientist, yet citing Rex Murphy, undermines his own credibility
Science as conducted within the academic community was, up until a few weeks ago, percieved by many to be the gold standard for academic integrity and credibility. However, after the leak of these emails the community defended the people and the science involved by attacking the motivation behind the leak, rather than condemning the content of what was leaked as a serious breach of academic honesty and as bad science. In the eyes of many, this has thrown all of academia and the entire scientific community into disrepute. Not because of some bad apples (which can happen in any field of endeavor), but because when found out the community did not reject the bad apples.
Science under siege? Surely you're joking?
The practice of science is a matter of trust, between those who actually do the science and those (particularly those not able to do the science for themselves) that act upon the scientific results.
Asking (better yet, demanding) that people have a blind acceptable of science based on a belief or doctrine that "scientists never lie" is a reversion to the practice of religion (based on blind faith) rather than science (based on demonstrated & repeatable fact).
For "scientists" to diddle the data, destroy or obscure original data, and resort to bullying & intimidation to suppress unwanted opinions is the lowest-form betrayal of true science & no better than the practices of the medieval church when persecuting copernicus. It's just now the high priests wear expensive suits or lab coats instead of funny vatican costumes.
As well as being a betrayal of science, it is a wasting & erosion of credibility & trust that true scientists have been slowly, painfully building with the public over hundreds of years of painstaking work.
If "man-made global warming" truly exists, then why not have the open, honest, proper scientific debate as many times as it takes for the real truth (whatever it is) to come out...?
You're obviously in the David Suzuki 'if-you-don't-agree-with-me-you're-a-war-criminal' mindset, ignoring or denigrating any fact or opinion that runs contrary to your left-of-centre decisions on what's best for Canada. Have average global temperatures not been COOLING in recent years? Would stealing TRILLIONS of dollars from Canadian consumers and businesses into the infinite future (i.e., a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade boondoggle) meaningfully fight CO2 increases when Red China is inaugurating a new COAL-FIRED electrical-generation plant EACH WEEK? How about the fact that roughly thirty percent of world CO2 emissions come from cattle FARTING (I kid you not...'bovine flatulence')...so should we ban livestock farming as well? The REAL agenda here is that many left-wingnuts and luddite enviro-radicals want to DESTROY CAPITALISM and impose bigger, more intrusive government on the population (not just in Canada) than has EVER been seen before in a democracy. Their agenda extends FAR beyond 'climate change', and is disgusting and scarey as hell.
Some time back, Isaac Asimov cautioned about the inherent danger in having a techno-centric civilization in which the majority of people are scientifically illiterate. We're seeing the danger in this playing out today whereby the average person can be easily fooled by otherwise transparent corporate interests being presented as science and healthy debate (i.e. dissenting opinion).
Hi Bob,
I'm very surprised by your apparent indifference to the CRU emails. As someone who obviously respects and admires the objectivity of the scientific method, I would have thought you might have spent more time addressing the breaches in standard scientific practices. The emails reveal a politicized approach to the whole issue of climate change. Manipulating or deleting data, marginalizing opponents, and the corruption of the sacrosanct peer-review process -- is this science?
While I "believe" (NB!) that AGW exists, I was shocked by what these emails contained. My trust in climate scientists has been broken. The last thing we need is to plunge ahead with expensive public policy initiatives. Instead, let's find a way to re-do the science in a fully transparent way. Honestly, Bob, do you really expect anything Obama proposes to pass the Senate now, in light of the email revelations? There's no way! Science needs to build trust again so we can move forward together.
There is no way I would support any carbon reduction system at this point. I suspect I'm not alone.
The arrogance of scientists is on show for all to see. It's a sad spectacle.
One poster, obviously part of the "Climate Change Crusades" quoted Bertrand Russell:
"the problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
I couldn't have said it better myself...
I just read the pdf from the Royal Society. That is supposed to convince me?
The whole thing is a big money grab by someone, and it's going to come out of our pockets.
Time to change the channel and get on with our lives
I guess the Roman Catholic church made the same comment about Gallileo when he wrote the "blasphemy" that the earth revolves around the sun.
Good science is always "under siege". It is this "siege", the questioning, that makes it good. Thank goodness, we do question every bit of science "fact" that comes along.
Bob, citing the Proceedings of the Royal Society as definitve proof of Global Warming is not such a great idea as this society has backed many theories in the past that have turned out to be wrong. One case in point, it held that God created all creatures and that said creatures did not evolve. We all know now that this is not true, but it was considered a scientific fact until Darwin's Theory of Evolution was finally accepted.
Now I believe that Global Warming is happening and that humans are the chief reason behind the upswing in temperatures over the last century, but citing the Royal Society does not make the case.
Before blamimg Prime Minister Harper for everything, like you usually do, I would take a step back and ask why the Liberals, who signed Kyoto, did not take one step to decrease carbon emissions in the years that they were in power. It is not as simple as saying, "it's the Conservative's fault" Bob. You have to understand that even your beloved Liberal Party has done nothing other than talk about change, even when they had the power.
Fortunately there are infomation sources, other than he CBC, which provide the full spectrum. The earth is far to complex to rely on this puny, altered data to predict
what causes climate change.
Every year scientists tell us that something they used to tell us was fact was wrong and that now they have these new wonderful facts we should believe instead. And we're supposed to revere these guys? They call it progress. Well we obviously can't have progress in science unless scientists don't know everything. Anyhow, so much for their omniscience. Perhaps if they were more prudent in their rhetoric, spin, hyperbole, political correctness and funds mongering we would have a better opinion of their credibility. How many scientists were wrong before Newton? All of them. How many scientists were wrong before Einstein? All of them.
Keith says:
"They also argue that burning fossil fuels both warms AND cools the atmosphere."
Yes, and you should be reassured that they present the nuanced case as a sign of good faith that they are sincere.
Both are true and this is not absurd. Smoke or soot gets into the atmosphere and blocks a small percentage of sunlight, which cools the planet slightly. However the problem is that particulates from burning coal and so on only stay up for a much shorter period of time than do carbon emissions. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for decades. Rain washes out particulates.
So in the long run, burning coal heats the planet because the CO2 emitted will do much more warming over its life in the atmosphere than the soot will do cooling in its few months up there.
The point is all the coal we're burning is actually shielding us slightly from the warming. When we stop, it will get much warmer.
Sometimes things aren't intuitive. If you're burning up at the beach, it feels cooling to go in the water, but the refractive effects of the water can mean you get sunburnt even worse. So the water both cools and burns you.
The people presenting the simple cases are the ones to be most suspicious of.
Bob, great job, the scientific community are behind you. Federal scientists cannot speak out on this because they are muzzled. Scary but true.
As for those rabid conspiracy theorists frothing at the mouth with "evidence" of a smoking gun, you have been had, once again by the vocal but vacuous denial machine. The fallacious arguments and obfuscation put forth here by the cynics are predictable.
I normally do not recommend videos on YouTube or going to blogs to solicit information, but the following two are exceptions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nnVQ2fROOg
http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610
And that is just the beginning of refuting the ludicrous and fallacious claims made by the denial machine-- more will be following soon, but it takes time to put the facts together and compose a measured response rather than blindly shouting "hide the decline" on Fox. Denialists, cynics, please, don't try and claim to be enlightened when you cannot get the most basic facts straight. There is a giant void of facts and science on the contrarian side.
And while you are at it go to:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2009&month=10&submitted=Get+Report
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp.html
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
The last graphic is particularly telling, the oceanic heat content has increased by about 15x10^22 Joules since 1955-- a time of declining incoming solar radiative and increased negative forcing because of anthro aerosols (atmospheric dimming). Think about how much energy that is. Do some research on the energy released by nuclear bombs.
i don't see any science in this article. Just more political rhetoric.
When Michael Mann's hockey stick graph was proven to be a fraud that attempted to eliminate the medieval warming period,was that skepticism scientific enough Bob?
Apparently the IPPc thought so, as they removed the graphic from their report.
How about the scores of scientist who claim they only signed a document that stated they had participated in the IPPC conference on climate change,only to find their name on the report as supporting its findings.
Emails and tampered computer model codes aside, there was plenty of evidence to question AGW 2 yrs ago. The East Anglia emails and data only add to the mountain of doubt.
By the way, it seems you are suggesting that not being able to disprove AGW means it must be true. Thats not how science works.
In order to justify huge increases in fuel and electricity and do major damage to the economy,the onus is upon the AGW community to prove their case. They have not. The computer models has thus far failed to produce one prediction that is even close to observed data.The models are the basis of the AGW theory. No one can review the process because the data was refused for years under FOIA requests and has now mysteriously disappeared.
Thats not credible peer review is it?
I'm all for conservation,species protection, and pollution reduction. But while we're sorting out those problems ,we still need to feed our kids.
Bob
How can you completely disregard the evidence that scientists, who are among the leaders of the AGW fiction, have manipulated their data to support their position. These people are morally corrupt. If they had to swear in a court of law about the accuracy of the data they compiled (data for past climate records, not future projections) they would be guilty of perjury. For you to disregard the evidence of fraud and pass it off as if it didn't happen is irresponsible. You also state that "peer reviewed" studies are the only ones worth taking into consideration and yet we have evidence that such studies can be used to perpetrate a fraud.
Dr Alexander Jablanczy,
With respect your hypothesis, while valid, does not refute global warming. You see, the issue to which you refer, the urban heat island effect, has been addressed in the NASA GISS global surface data set. As have data homogenization issues with station data. Still not satisfied? OK, then please explain to us why the satellites measuring temperatures of the troposphere are showing warming, why weather balloon data are also showing warming, why oceanic heat content has increased dramatically, and why global ice melt is accelerating? No urban heat island effect there. You might be interested to read this:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/riddle-me-this/
Could it be that the primary reason for the earth has been in an energy imbalance since at least the fifties is because of GHG emissions? Don't believe me, read this:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JD012105.shtml
You will probably also find this site interesting;
www.skepticalscience.com
It is astonishing to see so many people dump their faith in all scientists over this.
To me, this suggests that our society is ripe for a foundational shift (and likely a regressive one) where the wisdom of the past will be the first casualty.
Send in the ayatollahs! There ought to be ayatollahs. Don't bother... they're here.
Excellent article, as always!
Good luck to all of us at Copenhagen. :-)
Global warming would be easier to believ in if it wasn't championed by eitehr people making ooodles of money off it or people who are so left of centre that they actually think a world government would be a good thing.
Look, lets say that I am a believer. OK. All I ask is that the measures taken to combat global warming involve NO fees, levies, taxes of higher cost for me AND NO CANADIAN MONEY IS TRANSFERRED TO ANY OTHER NATION.
Simple eh.
Of course this will never happen because it's really not about climate temperature but rather about a massive transfer of wealth and power from western nations to less successful ones.
Robt.
Forgive me if my comments are not an accurate reflection of your knowledge or skills. But as a scientist at a leading research university here in Ontario, I get the sense that you don't fully understand the nature of (a) the critical importance of statistical techniques designed to minimize the impact of outlying data, (b) That in science (and data analysis imparticular) "tricks" is jargon for statistical techniques.Just remember, data around the world (in different locations, collected by different people show the same thing. NASA included.)
What's so difficult about all this is that a rather scientifically illiterate society (most of whom don't understand the basic priciples of climate change, never mind the scientific method) is evaluating the integrity of some of the best scientists we have. Freedon of speech is essential, but we all have to take responsibility for what we say (especially in a quasi-public forum) and that includes admitting when the discussion is really out of one's own league. I
Bob, Christians who have read the Book of Revelation have known that global warming is coming for over 1,000 years.
Revelation 16:8, "And the fourth angel poured out his vial upon the sun; and power was given unto him to scorch men with fire".
It is the wickedness of mankind that has brought down fire from the heavens. So let's get busy and reduce those carbon emissions!
By the way, Russia is very upset that it could lose its carbon credits in 2012 if the Copenhagen treaty is ratified by world leaders.
I think the controversy over climate warming is just what you would expect from a speculated science. There is no denying of climate change and some warming. What we don't really know is the degree of the future effects and what we can hope to achieve with curbing anthropogenic green house gas even if we eliminate them completely. The problem is that the agenda has been railroaded by Charletons on both side. The doomsayers and environmental groups would have us believe the world will end if we don't act now. The scientists have doctored information to get the hockey stick graph that was used for so long and then we have the attempts to sequester information (East Anglia). One tends to suspect that the Environmental radicals and the university funding programs encourage such behavior.
There remains strong geological information indicating that the world CO2 and temperatures were much higher in the past. I think we should invest more money in cloud and water vapour studies, the much stronger and more abundant green house gas. Maybe pollution affects this aspect of climate warming that no one seems to be addressing. We also do not know if the oceans are warming because of climate change or if the warming of the oceans is leading to the release of Green House gases (CO2) and then this mechanism is causing the atmospheric warming. The tree ring science has proved to be somewhat shaky and I think the same may happen with glacial core analysis. There are many leading scientists that refute AGH warming (Litzner at MIT, Plimer at Adelaide, Roy Spencer at NASA, and a host of silent climatologists).
I have been trying to read both sides of the green house gas issue and still remain confused. I just wish the scientists who claim that man's CO2 input is the main reason for this warming could explain it better and put to rest the controversy the current political/media/ science hype presents. I believe it is time for both sides to have a rational discussion but throw out all the non-science inputs. The controversy created by the current atmosphere cannot be denied on this important issue. Let us not be panicked into making bad decisions.
Robt.
Get some context on those e-mails. I'm done with explaining how ridiculously these e-mails are being taken out of context and blown way out of proportion. Luckily someone made a great video. Here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgPUpIBWGp8
And don't come back until you RESEARCH THE ISSUES YOURSELF. This information is all at your fingertips.
Bob, thank you for your sensibility. It is really appalling how people have turned on science all of a sudden. There is a HUGE disconnect between public opinion and the opinion in the scientific community over AGW. Polls in the UK showing a majority of people don't believe humans have been a primary cause of global warming are frightening.
Thank you CBC for not distorting the truth to show a false "balanced" argument. When one side has all of the evidence and support from the scientific community and the other side have nothing to offer that stands up to scientific scrutiny, there should not be the appearance of a "balanced" debate.
Unfortunately, science journals are boring and people are persuaded more by the people making the most noise.
Bob, you forgot to mention the open letter released recently by CMOS (Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society) and four other Canadian scientific societies in support of the science and reducing GHG emissions. You can source the letter at:
http://www.cmos.ca/ClimateChangeLetter_26Nov09.pdf
Please consider adding this link to your blog. Thanks.
It'll be three years before the CRU fraud is verified or rebutted.
Let's go have a beer, and wait before we cut cheques to China, shall we?
The problems I see are many. One is the obvious attempts by many, Bob McDonald included, to close the debate.
Bob derided many points skeptics make, as if not one of them deserves some sort of rebuttal.
After all, we all know that climate has always changed.
The question is whether man has an impact, and if he does, how much?
Since no scientists has been able to accurately predict long term climate trends within a better margin than a few hundred years, it seems logically impossible that anything can be conclusively attributed to human behaviour.
Thousands of dissident scientists had criticized the methods of the CRU, accusing them of pursuing a conclusion rather than following the data.
There is evidence in these emails that those accusations had some merit.
What really bothers me about the emails is that they reveal how completely politicized AGW science has become.
It is obvious that the peer review process was equally politicized.
The IPCC's 2500 scientist peer review panel had very few legitimate scientists.
Of 2500, 1900 of them were political scientists and sociologists, hardly experts worthy of a role on a climate science peer review panel.
It is obvious from Bob's blog, and many of the opinions lurking on both sides of the debate, that what should have been an issue of sound science has become an ideological struggle, with billions of dollars on the table, lots of shady players (ie: Al Gore), and the stakes are nothing less than our national sovereignty.
I do not believe that the stakes are life on Earth, as the more shrill alarmists postulate. In fact, such doom and gloom claims seem utterly absurd to anyone who has followed the history of human adaptation of this rock known as Earth.
I'm not sure why science is under siege. Just because many people don't believe scientists about one theory doesn't qualify as a siege.
Very interesting. Apparently there are a lot of true scientists reading and commenting on this blog...and if I (and I do) question them I am branded a 'denier' or a skeptic (as if skepticism in science is a bad thing).
Is global warming happening? I don't know. Is the science 'settled' - I certainly hope not. Someone snidely suggested that skeptics should test the theory of gravity by jumping from a high place - I suggest that the authour do his/her homework before posting such drivel. There are many theories of gravity that are still being debated. Einstein's Theory of General Relativity - still theoretically.
I do not believe the issue (at this point) should be is AGW happening but rather do we have enough solid evidence to say that it is?
Before I get flamed to death I would ask that those who would flame read through the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
If there are not enough 'big names' in the list above to at least indicate that we need to do more research (preferably with a cross-functional group of scientists), than what good open and honest debate?
One last point - AGW skeptic does not equal against the environment. All of my hobbies and most of my life have been dedicated to environmental protection and good stewardship.
Enjoy your day
Daniel Rosa said: "A hacker goes into the computers of a small university, and selectively chooses a number of emails in order to show some disputable signs that some scientists may have been doing something (we don't quite know exactly what), and it's a big deal."
The CRU of UEA is not a 'small university', it's one of the most influential re. the IPCC, the emails weren't distorted and we do know exactly what they were doing.
If you'd have been following the debate rather than following the shepherd, you'd know that the major players in climate science have been suspect of having an agenda, witholding data, manipulating data, puppeteering the press and attempting to silence debate for many years.
Well, with the release and verification of the data, the critics have been proven right.
Read Bishop Hill's summary, which was written well over a year ago, then read the emails, pick your jaw up from the floor, then come back to the Quirks and Quarks comment board.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html
Jay W, "It was deliberately designed to "hide the decline" and pretending otherwise by dismissing the CRU's blatant misrepresentation of data is blindly disingenuous and does more to harm the climate change movement than anything else.'
For the umpteenth time, the "hiding the decline" had nothing to do with changing temperatures in the instrumented temperature record.
That comment was made in reference to the tree ring proxy temperature data 'declining' after 1960 while the instruments (thermometers) were showing warming. This "divergence problem" is well documented in the scientific literature, and research is ongoing. So the text in question was about how to merge (smoothly) the temperature and tree ring proxy data to provide a continuous temperature record for a brochure-- this is the 'trick' to which they refer, math speak (widely used in math by the way) for a clever procedure . The same mathematical "trick" (for merging data) was published in a Nature paper.
The planet is warming that has been demonstrated by numerous independent data sets by various respected international agencies, using thermometers, satellites and weather balloon data. The marked warming has also been detected in the oceans. And of course the warming is being reflected in the accelerating loss of ice from glacier, ice caps and ice sheets around the globe.
The only "trickery" going on here is by the contrarians and those in denial.
Good article - instructive not only about AGW and deniers, but about science in general.
You have maintained your usual high standard.
'If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it. But such a body of evidence does not exist.' isn't this the very information that the CRU tried to cover up and destroy? What about the research in New Zealand, a simple internet search will show you their fudged data and the actual data, the actual data shows their recorded temperatures are on the decline.
As with most sheople who have bought into AGW hook line and sinker no matter what information comes to light to counter your theory you will simply gloss over this and say it isn't credible.
I am a firm non-believer in human caused climate change but I have taken my own steps to try and reduce my own pollution (for economic reasons) and I am willing to take the pepsi challenge with any of you believers to see if you have made anywhere the changes in your personal habits as I have. Do you talk the talk or walk the walk?
Dear M. McDonald,
When it come to climate change, the entire body of science that you speak so highly about has been completely and shamelessly corrupted and manipulated. Furthermore, as if it needed any more, the peer review process has completely been hijacked by the "green" crowd through fear and collusion. Every one in the climate change scam used the same body of data and all have been manipulated. Please do every one a favour, including yourself, do as you wish but leave the rest of us alone with this fraud and please stop perpetuating this scam. Take a page from your colleague Rex Murphy and please open your eyes.
Which brings me to one question: With this whole scam being blown wide open and yet you still stick by it, do you have a vested interest in Al Gores Cap and Trade scam/venture?
The problem here is that like evolution, the reality of the science is a threat to the power and control that people like "robt" enjoy in the status quo. This is why they rehash the same dis-proven claims and conspiracy theories again and again and again. We will almost certainly still be dealing with these people in 150 years as we are still dealing with "intelligent design" folks 150 years after Darwin. One can only hope that as the hard decisions are made, our politicians have the back bone to look past the pressure exerted on them by the oil industry and their internet attack squads and do what is right for the people of Canada and the world.
The only assault on science was the scandalous and surreptitious actions by the Hadley CRU 'scientists' in:
1) admitting there is NO warming and it is a 'travesty' they can't explain it";
2) destroying files and e-mails in response to FOI requests by other scientists;
3) manipulating data to 'hide the decline' in temperatures; and
4) the perversion of the peer-review process by blocking from publication papers of scientists who disagree!
Where is your outrage over THAT?
What Bob said!-double
Additionally: At the end of the day, there really is no problem for our planet re Climate change. The planet will be just fine. People on the other hand are going to die by the millions.
That's not a bad thing for the planet.
Whether people can or will do anything about that remains to be seen.
There are a few missed details in this opinion piece. One is that there really is a substantial effort to prevent true peer review. Simple examples include the journals Science and Nature, supposed paragons opf scientific virtue, will not, by editorial decree, publish any papers that call into question AGW. The Scientific American rebuttal you refer to has been substantially shown to be biased pseudo-science and Sci.Amerc. is itself a non-peer reviewed journal.
The basic argument of open discussion does not exist. AGW supporters attack any contrary work, not to disprove by logic, but to disapprove by rhetoric. That is the fundamental difference. Remember that most AGW supporters and researchers depend on funds generated from their fear mongering. This is seen as okay. But, in the reverse case, where research is funded by another group, well "they obvously are paid to deny the truth". That is the fundamental travesty about much of the debate. (although, there is no debate so no-one is talking about it. Right.)
If you're interested in another perspective, here's a presentation by CERN's Jason Kirkby to another group of scientists:
http://www.the-daily-politics.com/2009/12/cosmic-rays-and-climate-j-kirkby-cern.html
(Scroll down to see the video.)
The presentation describes research into the link between clouds and galactic cosmic rays. Very impressive. And, yes, the referenced studies are peer-reviewed.
I remember watching Wonderstruck as a kid. The only episode that sticks in my mind is when Bob tried to freeze hot/warm water faster than cold water in ice cube trays. His experiment failed to perform as predicted with no explanation as to why. Since then, I usually disregarded most of what he had to say on scientific matters.
I just googled Bob MacDonald today and found out that he is not a scientist. His education is theater, english, and philosophy. That explains a lot.
Nice guy though, and really, that's what matters.
Hey Leo, from SK:
You claim to be a senior research scientist in the field of climatology that's skeptical about anthropogenic climate change. You say you've analyzed the data personally, and something doesn't jive. This is wondrous news! Maybe, just maybe, we're not quite as doomed by our rampant consumerist lifestyle as we once thought. I feel relieved to know that we have some time.
Would you be so kind as to provide a reference for your publications? Surely, when a senior scientist such as yourself can reveal fundamental flaws in a widely-held hypothesis their research gets published. Published in a credible journal, or two. Or more.
No? Didn't think so. Thanks for your unsubstantiated claims.
I will say bravo to the Royal Society, as their enforcement of one of their own publications data sharing policy turned loose data that Steve M had been looking for, but Mr Briffa from CRU refused to hand out for over 3 years.
That is the data underlying the Yamal dendro proxy that is used in Briffa 2000, it also contributed to the reconstructions in Mann and Jones 2003, Jones and Mann 2004, Moberg et al 2005, D'Arrigo et al 2006, Osborn and Briffa 2006 and Hegerl et al 2007, among others.
The proxy consists of less than enough tress to perform any meaningful statistical analysis on, but does produce the correct hockey stick shape.
If that does not matter to the science, then pull all those papers using Yamal from here, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html,
then take them out of here, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter6.pdf
and then take the "hide the decline trick" off the end of the proxy
and see what what's left over.
Oh, but you can't, because they "lost" the data from CRU.
Wake up Bob.
1. I am happy now that everyone is refering to this issue as climate change and not global warming.
2. Honestly thousands of years ago if scientists were alive when the world was cooling what would they be saying? Global Cooling, emmit as much carbon as you can to warm up the world.
Geeze, the real problem is not cliamte change it is man made pollution. We humans are very adaptable we can live in the hottest and coldest cliamtes this world has to offer but we cannot live if the air we breath gives is all smog, we cannot live if the water we depend on is contaminated with man made pollutants and we cannot live if the food we rely on is breathing, eating and drinking these contaminates.
I say go green not to save our climate but to save the enviroment that we depend on to keep us a live.
First thing first, science has not been around for 350 years.
Science has been around us for the last 15 billion years since the big bang.
Get your fact right
Once again, we see the victimizer playing the victim. It is people like MacDonald who are a threat to science, not those of us calling for greater transparency.
Science turned into a religion is not science. The entire AGW movement is a sham, indicted by their own intolerant and close-minded hate and fear mongering. If the "truth" was indeed settled, then they would welcome open debate of the science, not stifle it as they are doing. Science is not about truth - religion and beliefs are about truth. Science is about tangible facts that can be repeatedly measured to support a theory that offers an acceptable explanation for observed phenomenon with consistence. Even then, it does not become truth or “settled” – it only becomes the best explanation FOR NOW.
The AGW theory is no where near that level - it omits many variables from the equation, manipulates the data inconsistently, and still despite all this jerry mandering can not deliver a reliable model that fits the available facts. If Galileo or Einstein were alive today – they would be among the first scientists to stand up and protest the academic fraud and junk science being peddled by the AGW cult.
The ignorant public, particularly political leaders such as PM Brown, Pres Obama, and the head of the EPA who IGNORE the scientific debate and declare the science as settled are worse than ignorant - they are criminally negligent and should be removed from office at the next election and held financially accountable for their poor policy leadership.
Personally I enjoyed reading this article, there may be some corruption going on in terms of information provided from some scientists, but the overall science community is concerned that we are not taking things seriously.
It would be great if we could use hydrogen or something to reverse engineer large ice masses from reducing in size too much, from both poles it seems at times large chunks are breaking off and without any science background that concerns me.
First of all in reality, it would not be all that hard to enforce a cleaner world environment, using wireless technology and new technology to remotely charge devices can help us to get rid of using so many cords, we could ban outright using plastic bags and finding an alternative product and encouraging corporations to utilize and at times mandate cleaner materials we purchase our products with.
I think we are already doing a pretty good effort, but it's not all that hard to do a whole lot more, even if it's "just in case" the evidence is real, I'd rather be safe than sorry, I don't think anyone is totally 100% sure about the impact we are having on our environment, lets just take a better attitude overall and find a solution that works for everyone.
I cant fathom how I could be so misunderstood. I thought that urban heat implies planetary warming automatically. I wanted to bring a new method and understanding to the issue. For me the melting glaciers and polar ice is not arguable among sane people.
However lying cheating falsifying is unacceptable especially in anyone who claims integrity. Especially in those who are on the right side of an argument, are they so diffident that they feel they have to cook data? Amicus Plato sed magis amicus veritas. I might be a friend of Plato but I am more of truth.
There is nothing more despicable and discredited than a so called scientist who lies.
Another cute example. We all know about the red shift and the expansion of the universe.
Yet you have to read a hundred astronomical journals or popularising sites to find one
that will state the truth yes the general rule of expansion of the universe is true but about ten or five percent of galaxies are actually blue shifted ie they are closing in on us. Specifically the Andromeda and the Triangulum galaxies. They will swallow us Milky Way folks up in about two to four billion years.
Are scientists inveterate congenital liars and dissemblers?
Whem an insignificant detail counters the general drift they simply lie.
Hence they feed the trolls.
Ben Mosher and TomF, this is one of the reasons the science and scientists are under siege:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/08/hacked-climate-emails-death-threats
Not even big tobacco did not stoop this low. Stop trying to hide behind calls for greater transparency. This is not about transparency for those in denial-- it is about creating doubt, character assassination and money for them, and they are using you as pawns to add "weight" to their often unsubstantiated claims.
The GISS data have been available for years. ClimateAudit (they have sent over some loyal disciples here it seems) had the tree ring data since 2004, but even up until a few months ago CA were claiming that Briffa was withholding the data-- not that it matters, the data belonged to the Russians.
Over 95% of the CRU data is available, they are not at liberty to release the remaining data. The CRU had been harassed and badgered by countless FOI requests. Many of those claims originated in Canada and represent abuse of the FOI system-- it is being used to harass people to give data that they full well know the CRU cannot provide because of legally binding agreements with international weather agencies.
These are complex issues that cannot be dumbed down into a sound bite on Fox news. "ClimateGate' is not going to be remembered for what you had hoped it would guys.
What the Royal Society's website does NOT clarify nor speculate is MANMADE EMF - carbon dioxide does not heat up spontaneously. It requires an energy source, and there is NO scientific studies that I am aware of at this time which indicate anyone has bothered to check. How many satellites have gone into space in the last 40 years? What about plasma generation in the ionosphere? How about Heisenburg's Uncertainty Principle?
Equally, I have yet to see any studies which detail how exactly ionospheric nuclear tests impacted long term climate trends. I have read studies indicating that the ionosphere expands and collapses which correlates to an increase or decrease in severity of weather.
I don't need to understand V=I*R to understand that "voltage is the electrical difference between two points"; frankly the lack of scientific discussion in the public sphere is astounding, (a shut up and accept it, dummy!) and the fact that people in positions of "authority" can say with a straight face that this is the "correct response" truely leads me to believe that the age of enlightenment has indeed come to an end.
What I find most interesting is that the people doing most of the yammering about the Great Global Warming Conspiracy aren't scientists. Regardless of what is going on with the suppression or manipulation of evidence in the UK, the vast majority of those who are actually paid to know this sort of stuff, agree that human-caused global warming is here and it's going to cause problems. Compared to them, all the talking heads and industry shills in the world are just background noise. It is long past time for us to stop talking and start doing. Please.
The original IPCC report was, 'changed to more accurately reflect the summary'.
Does that sound like science?
Way to go Bob!
In my opinion science has officially been under attack in Canada since Rona Ambrose appointed Darrel Reid,president of Focus on the Family Canada to the position of chief of staff for the Federal Environment Ministry.
Next, the position of National Science Advisor was eliminated on March 31st 2008.
I fear what else the Conservatives will do!
About "Climategate": Obviously, if a handful of people among the tens of thousands working in a scientific field can even be suspected of being dishonest, all data ever accumulated within that field over the decades must be thrown out the window.
On a similar note, I was saddened after finding out that an astronomer near here fudged some numbers in his thesis. It really makes me sad knowing I cannot reasonably believe in stars anymore.
The bottom line: people say they don't think anthropogenic climate change is real because they don't want it to be real, because they don't want to be responsible for addressing it. They'd rather live their lives out cheerfully doing whatever the hell they like and hope science figures it all out later.
To those who addressed their comments to me:
1) I have a B.Sc. (Hons) from U ot T and took intro and advanced statistics courses; and
2) While you can quibble over my 3rd point about manipulation of data what is your response to the other 3? No knowledge iof statistics is required.
Specifically, Kenneth Trenberth (an IPCC bigwig) did admit warming had stopped and it was a TRAVESTY (his word) they couldn't explain it. That alone is devastating to the whole AGW fearmongering industry.
Also, the e-mails reveal data and e-mails have been destroyed. You don't need a university degree to understand that.
Lastly, they were successful in their efforts to prevent scientists who disagree with them from publishing in certain journals (and, in fact, were able to get the editor of one journal fired).
Bob M has no business decrying the alleged 'assault on science" when he is shamefully silent on this scandalous behaviour of the 'scientists' he is supporting.
It's hilarious to see the true believers quoting the corrupted data and processes at the CRU as proof that they aren't corrupt.
The UK Met office knows they have to start over, why can't you understand that as well?
And I'm still waiting for someone to explain how shutting down the clean industry here and moving production to dirty factories in China will reduce pollution.
"How Important Is CRU Data?
... very:
The data from the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University — headquarters for Climategate — is now discredited. This discredits any findings by other research bodies that relied on the Climategate data.
How much falls from Climategate, whose participants read like a Who’s Who at the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? Not much, says CRU’s disgraced director, Phil Jones, pointing out that CRU’s data for global temperatures is but one of several datasets, all in general agreement. Besides, many argue, CRU was no linchpin to the science. The IPCC relied on numerous other sources. Throw CRU out, they say, and the IPCC’s conclusions remain unshakable.
In truth, if you throw CRU out, you’ve eviscerated the findings of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the most recent and most definite opus from the UN. This is the report, received with universal acclaim in 2007, which scarily stated: “The warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
The argument over global warming requires evidence that the globe is warming in dangerous ways. This evidence the IPCC presents forcefully in its third chapter on surface and atmospheric warming, which rests overwhelmingly on the official global temperature record of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization, called the HADCRUT3 temperature dataset.
And who produced the HADCRUT3 dataset for the World Meteorological Organization? The Hadley Centre of the UK government’s meteorological office (the HAD of HADCRUT3) and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (the CRU)."
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/05/dirty-climate-data.aspx
The CBC can try to hide it, but it's over.
The Climate Piltdown Man has been exposed.
The CRU 'scientists' corrupted the peer review process, so how would it be logical to use that as a benchmark?
The fact that you would try speaks volumes.
When the strength of Science relies on "blindly saying the same thing over and over", Blackballing those who disagree with you, conspiring with others to destroy data, labeling people who disagree with findings as "Deniers and Skeptics", picking and choosing data that supports your theories (and ignoring that which contradicts your findings), and relying on politicians and "special interest groups" to convince the general public to accept your findings, then it indicates that the "Science in Question" is not sound enough to stand on it's own. Couple that with fear monger-ing and extreme pressure to have it implemented...and you have the makings of a SHAM!!
Any Scientist who does not openly welcome scrutiny of the work presented (from any and all sources) is either "not confident of the findings" or knows is it flawed!
If you apply this to what has been going on at the UNEP, IPCC, Copenhagen, CRU, and the Pro-Global Warming/Climate Change supporters - what does it tell you?
This petition of 500 - you can find it on the WWF site...Say no more.."Nudge Nudge"
Just read the Royal Society's propaganda. Some things really stuck out in my mind.
Satellite and balloon measurements did not show any warming of the lower atmosphere, however an error was discovered, corrected and now shows warming.
Satellite did not show any warming of the troposphere, however an error was discovered, corrected and now shows warming.
Satellite does not show any warming of the troposphere near the equator, however probably due to errors that will eventually be discovered and corrected.
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, does all of this sound familiar.
To those who addressed their comments to me:
1) I have a B.Sc. (Hons) from U ot T and took intro and advanced statistics courses; and
2) While you can quibble over my 3rd point about manipulation of data what is your response to the other 3? No knowledge iof statistics is required.
Specifically, Kenneth Trenberth (an IPCC bigwig) did admit warming had stopped and it was a TRAVESTY (his word) they couldn't explain it. That alone is devastating to the whole AGW fearmongering industry.
Also, the e-mails reveal data and e-mails have been destroyed. You don't need a university degree to understand that.
Lastly, they were successful in their efforts to prevent scientists who disagree with them from publishing in certain journals (and, in fact, were able to get the editor of one journal fired).
Bob M has no business decrying the alleged 'assault on science" when he is shamefully silent on this scandalous behaviour of the 'scientists' he is supporting.
Bob,
You comment that there are no reputable scientists who dispute AGW orthodoxy.
That is simply not true.
It isn't hard to find reputable scientists who believe AGW is nonsense. One such scientist is Atmospheric Scientist and Hurricane forecasting specialist Dr. William Gray. Gray is the renowned hurricane forecaster and Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU).
Expert enpough for you Bob?
Here is what he has said today:
Rising levels of CO_2 are not near the threat these alarmists have portrayed them to be. There has yet to be a honest and broad scientific debate on the basic science of CO_2 's influence on global temperature. The global climate models predicting large amounts of global warming for a doubling of CO_2 are badly flawed. They should never have been used to establish government climate policy.
and again:
The recent 'ClimateGate' revelations coming out of the UK University of East Anglia are but the tip of a giant iceberg of a well organized international climate warming conspiracy that has been gathering momentum for the last 25 years.
You can read it and weep at:
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/4369/Hurricane-Expert-Rips-Climate-Fears-There-has-been-an-unrelenting-quarter-century-of-onesided-indoctrination
Bob, I look forward to your interview of Dr Gray sometime soon.
I studied physics back in the late seventies and early eighties and I would never have thought this area of science would become so controversial. Back then the greenhouse effect was just considered another aspect of gyophysics, though they were already predicting the effects would become non-negligeable within a few decades. Now that is happening and suddenly it's become "debatable". It's like telling a smoker that if he continues his bad habit he will eventually devellop a serious lung disease, and when that starts to happen in reality, he denies that there is any link between the two. He can deny all he wants, he's dying. And so will our ecosystem as we know it if we don't "quit" our addiction to fossil fuels!
Surely, you jest or are being utterly hyperbolic when you say that 350 years of science is under siege.
Science is NOT under siege.
What IS under siege is junk science, science based on a political agenda designed to make a lot of money for proponents of one viewpoint, while scientists who dare to question the inaccurate, politically motivated data are pushed out of the loop, belittled, and have their observations disregarded.
I am very disappointed in your defence of AGW and the scientists who champion it; it would seem, unfortunately, that you and the CBC have some kind of vested interested in the political agenda underlying the supporters of AGW, otherwise, given the evidence revealed in the past few weeks, which makes it clear that something's terribly wrong with the data, why would you continue in its defence?
Thank you so much, Bob. I'm not even a scientist, just a normal intelligent citizen who is so fed up with the spin and the crap and the misinformation coming from the powers-that-be, and their media cronies. Thank you for reminding us of history, objectivity, reason. Many have fought and died to defend these time-tested principles. We must hold firm and speak out.
If they would have been honest then they would not be in this mess. They brought it on themselves.
We don't have to look too far back into history to see an example of a scientific hoax that was generally accepted and well published in respected scientific journals. "The Piltdown Man" was a famous paleontological hoax that started in 1912 when Charles Dawson, an English archaeologist discovered a fossilized skull and jawbone in a gravel pit, which he pronounced was from an early human ancestor. Sir Arthur Smith Woodward of the British Museum verified that the skull had human features and the jaw was ape-like. The specimen was then presented to the Geological Society and the findings were published in peer-reviewed scientific publications - the Piltdown hoax was born. It wasn’t until 1953 that chemical tests proved that the fossils were frauds. During the 40 year lifespan of this fraud, many articles were published in peer-reviewed scientific publications by respected scientists taken in by the hoax. Of course, there were skeptics at the time but the fraudsters simply manipulated the evidence to support their claims. Besides, many respected scientists had staked their careers on the authenticity of Piltdown Man, how could they all be wrong?
Bob, Prior to reading the first paragraph of this article I had never taken you to be disingenuous. Now, I belive you to be a liar.
The 'open letter' you direct our attention to was not drafted by '500 leading Canadian Scientists' at all, as you say. It was drafted by the WWF as a Canadianized version of a form letter they sent to many places around the world. You lied about Prime Minister Harper when you stated the scientists were, "saying that their voices are not being heard as he heads to the climate talks in Copenhagen". There was nothing of the sort in that UN generated letter. Also, did you check the make up of the 500 voices described by you? There are some scioentists in that group, to be sure, but many are not, Bob. Many are just citizens or students who are members of enviro-organizations, whose leaders only subscribed to be a part of that open letter.
Shame on you for promoting this deception.
When will the voice of far, far, more than 500 opposition voices, of extremely credible 'real' scientists be given equal airplay by CBC bullsh**ters like you? Bob, what the hell are you trying to do, man?
I have been a fan of yours for as long as you have been a part of CBC. I am rapidly getting so disillusioned with the obscene nature of the lying, I've decide to get active, politically. This is not going to happen without a fight.
There is too much debate over the debate. People are debating over what is causing global warming, and debating over what is to be done about it, who should contribute and where we should start.
At home is where we should start by stopping the useless debating on what is causing it. At home is where we should start causing less polution simply because it is medically proven to be lethal to humans.
At home is where Canadians should start doing something.
We would save more time and create less havoc by just putting our noses to the grindstone. Pursue the procrastinators, surely, but clean up our own back yard first. Harper is causing Canada to loose its world reputation for 'doing the right thing'.
Vote him out!
Cliff Yerex, how will shutting down the clean industry here and moving production to much dirtier factories in China reduce pollution?
I think it is time to collectively WAKE UP.
We are long past the point for debate
We only have time for dramatic and bold action on this global crisis.
99% of the peer reviewed science and 1000's of climatologists from all around the world not to mention over 30 Nobel Scientists concluded that we have a huge climatic problem, we caused it and only we can solve it! Its Time To Wake Up!
I feel sorry for the deniers as they are simply falling victim to the same PR firms hired by the Tobacco industry to create doubt about tobacco causing cancer for 40 years and who have not been hired by the oil industry to create doubt about global warming. Its Time To Wake Up!
With over 200 species a day going extinct on our only planet we have over 20,000 species a year acting as tragic canaries in our mine shaft, screaming out that if we continue on our current course, that we will be facing a mass extinction that will make all others pale by comparison. Its Time To Wake Up!
We all need to be present to the fact that our very LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM is at stake and that inaction can only result in enormous tragedy for our entire eco system and for mankind. There is no moral high ground for putting the fate and destiny of mankind on the line with inaction. It is Time To Wake Up!
Copenhagen is perhaps or last chance to take to bold global action required to turn this tables on this global crisis. Every generation has had its challenges. For some it has been famine or war or disease and by coming together to work on the solutions we have always been able to overcome the challenges. This is the first generation that has had the very survival of mankind as our challenge. This is our challenge and now is the time. Nothing less will do. It is time to Wake Up!
When I hear this debate continuing so many decades after the alarms went off in Rio decades ago, it seems like we are arguing about where to place the deck chairs while we are sitting on the deck of the Titanic and can see a giant iceberg off our bow. The are no fools like those that play astidge when thier life is at stake. It is time for courage, determination, and bold direct action to address this global crisis.
It is TIME TO WAKE UP and TIME TO TAKE ACTION!
I think it is time to collectively WAKE UP.
We are long past the point for debate
We only have time for dramatic and bold action on this global crisis.
99% of the peer reviewed science and 1000's of climatologists from all around the world not to mention over 30 Nobel Scientists concluded that we have a huge climatic problem, we caused it and only we can solve it! Its Time To Wake Up!
I feel sorry for the deniers as they are simply falling victim to the same PR firms hired by the Tobacco industry to create doubt about tobacco causing cancer for 40 years and who have not been hired by the oil industry to create doubt about global warming. Its Time To Wake Up!
With over 200 species a day going extinct on our only planet we have over 20,000 species a year acting as tragic canaries in our mine shaft, screaming out that if we continue on our current course, that we will be facing a mass extinction that will make all others pale by comparison. Its Time To Wake Up!
We all need to be present to the fact that our very LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM is at stake and that inaction can only result in enormous tragedy for our entire eco system and for mankind. There is no moral high ground for putting the fate and destiny of mankind on the line with inaction. It is Time To Wake Up!
Copenhagen is perhaps or last chance to take to bold global action required to turn this tables on this global crisis. Every generation has had its challenges. For some it has been famine or war or disease and by coming together to work on the solutions we have always been able to overcome the challenges. This is the first generation that has had the very survival of mankind as our challenge. This is our challenge and now is the time. Nothing less will do. It is time to Wake Up!
When I hear this debate continuing so many decades after the alarms went off in Rio decades ago, it seems like we are arguing about where to place the deck chairs while we are sitting on the deck of the Titanic and can see a giant iceberg off our bow. The are no fools like those that play astidge when thier life is at stake. It is time for courage, determination, and bold direct action to address this global crisis.
It is TIME TO WAKE UP and TIME TO TAKE ACTION!
141 scientists don't agree with you Bob:
www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org
That's a lot more that the 6 or so who wrote Ch. 9 of IPCC AR4.
I used to like your radio program, but I don't think I'm going to listen anymore until you start to do some unbiased reporting.
This article is unabashed rhetoric and garbage.
Ursus, you simply do not understand how the IPCC works, a problem with most in denial it seems. The people who wrote Ch.9 of AR did not write all the science; it does not represent only their work. Rather, they synthesized and integrated the scientific findings form hundreds of scientific papers. Go and count all the references cited in AR4-- it represents the integrated knowledge of thousands of papers and scientists. There are almost 3000 people publishing in the field of climate science, and only a handful of them are skeptics of repute and only a few of those have published widely.
Anyhow, this is not a popularity contest. The science is sound, it continues to advance, and the more we learn the more we are coming to understand that the situation is more serious than first thought.
As for rhetoric and garbage, that is the realm of the denialists, and ad hom attacks too for that matter (e.g., your attack on Bob).
Someone here was cited ClimateDepot. Oh dear, Google Mike Morano. Next they'll be siting Monckton or Tim Ball as reputable "scientists". Oh, and another denier cites the National Post...enough said. And before someone leaps to the defense of TIm Ball, not even the Calgary Herald wants anything to do with him.
Robt. you also have no idea what Trenberth was talking about. Read the paper that he is referring to, it is referenced in the paragraph before the cherry-picked quote that you cited.
The denialists' remarks are most remarkable for their unintentional humour. They certainly make me laugh. No matter how much information is supplied to those denialists they continue to rant and rave, repeating the same old mantra as if that will preserve them from the consequences of AGW.
Perhaps they believe they have been promised a luxury berth on Noah's Ark 2.00 as long as they persevere in their unenlightenment. But the more they embrace the misinterpretation of Climategate, the sillier they sound.
If there is any skulduggery going on at Copenhagen, it is obvious from today's report from the conference that those financial "powers-that-be" are trying to keep the developing nations in poverty while maintaining the advantages that have already accrued to the industrialized and monetized minorities. Unfortunately, that is not at all humourous.
About “climategate”:
Climate Denial Crock of the Week – Smacking the Hack Attack
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P70SlEqX7oY
There are other episodes of Climate Denial of the Week. Well worth watching.
I particularly like this one: The Great Petition Fraud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P8mlF8KT6I&feature=related
It exposes the fundamental dishonesty of the climate denial industry.
You say, "They are not expressing
opinions; they are describing what they see." A mere layman may need models and theories in order to describe a phenomenon, but true scientists do not have opinions, they live in a perfect world of objective observation; anything they "see" is guaranteed to be fact. Right? Come on.
Feynman was right when he said, "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." Neither intelligence nor expertise nor credentials can protect a scientist from being full of doo-doo, especially when commenting upon a religious issue while a mob is burning other skeptics at the stake.
I am rooting for deep cuts in fossil fuel use, but not because David Suzuki says I must.
Garnet MacPherson writes:
"99% of the peer reviewed science..."
Sorry, the peer review process was perverted and corrupted by the SRU climate 'scientists' and therefore isn't a valid argument anymore.
Circular logic is not valid.
All the lies and hiding of the truth by the CBC won't change that.
If the science for AGW is so strong why did they have to hide and delete data and use ridiculously faulty computer models to prove it?
That's many things, but it's not science.
"Open Letter to Secretary-General of United Nations
His Excellency Ban Ki Moon
Secretary-General, United Nations
New York, NY
United States of America
8 December 2009
Dear Secretary-General,
Climate change science is in a period of ‘negative discovery’ - the more we learn about this exceptionally complex and rapidly evolving field the more we realize how little we know. Truly, the science is NOT settled.
Therefore, there is no sound reason to impose expensive and restrictive public policy decisions on the peoples of the Earth without first providing convincing evidence that human activities are causing dangerous climate change beyond that resulting from natural causes. Before any precipitate action is taken, we must have solid observational data demonstrating that recent changes in climate differ substantially from changes observed in the past and are well in excess of normal variations caused by solar cycles, ocean currents, changes in the Earth's orbital parameters and other natural phenomena.
We the undersigned, being qualified in climate-related scientific disciplines, challenge the UNFCCC and supporters of the United Nations Climate Change Conference to produce convincing OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE for their claims of dangerous human-caused global warming and other changes in climate. Projections of possible future scenarios from unproven computer models of climate are not acceptable substitutes for real world data obtained through unbiased and rigorous scientific investigation.
Specifically, we challenge supporters of the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused climate change to demonstrate that:
1. Variations in global climate in the last hundred years are significantly outside the natural range experienced in previous centuries;
2. Humanity’s emissions of carbon dioxide and other ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHG) are having a dangerous impact on global climate;
3. Computer-based models can meaningfully replicate the impact of all of the natural factors that may significantly influence climate;
4. Sea levels are rising dangerously at a rate that has accelerated with increasing human GHG emissions, thereby threatening small islands and coastal communities;
5. The incidence of malaria is increasing due to recent climate changes;
6. Human society and natural ecosystems cannot adapt to foreseeable climate change as they have done in the past;
7. Worldwide glacier retreat, and sea ice melting in Polar Regions , is unusual and related to increases in human GHG emissions;
8. Polar bears and other Arctic and Antarctic wildlife are unable to adapt to anticipated local climate change effects, independent of the causes of those changes;
9. Hurricanes, other tropical cyclones and associated extreme weather events are increasing in severity and frequency;
10. Data recorded by ground-based stations are a reliable indicator of surface temperature trends.
It is not the responsibility of ‘climate realist’ scientists to prove that dangerous human-caused climate change is not happening. Rather, it is those who propose that it is, and promote the allocation of massive investments to solve the supposed ‘problem’, who have the obligation to convincingly demonstrate that recent climate change is not of mostly natural origin and, if we do nothing, catastrophic change will ensue. To date, this they have utterly failed to do so.
Signed by:
1. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Dr. Sci., mathematician and astrophysicist, Head of the Russian-Ukrainian Astrometria project on the board of the Russian segment of the ISS, Head of Space Research Laboratory at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia
2. Göran Ahlgren, docent organisk kemi, general secretary of the Stockholm Initiative, Professor of Organic Chemistry, Stockholm, Sweden
3. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, PhD, Professor of Physics, Emeritus and Founding Director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, U.S.A.
4. J.R. Alexander, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000, Pretoria, South Africa.
5. Jock Allison, PhD, ONZM, formerly Ministry of Agriculture Regional Research Director, Dunedin, New Zealand
6. Bjarne Andresen, PhD, dr. scient, physicist, published and presents on the impossibility of a "global temperature", Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
7. Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant and former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg, Member, Science Advisory Board, ICSC, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
8. Douglas W. Barr, BS (Meteorology, University of Chicago), BS and MS (Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota), Barr Engineering Co. (environmental issues and water resources), Minnesota, U.S.A.
9. Romuald Bartnik, PhD (Organic Chemistry), Professor Emeritus, Former chairman of the Department of Organic and Applied Chemistry, climate work in cooperation with Department of Hydrology and Geological Museum, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
10. Colin Barton, B.Sc., PhD, Earth Science, Principal research scientist (retd), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
11. Joe Bastardi, BSc, (Meteorology, Pennsylvania State), meteorologist, State College, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
12. Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol. (University of Freiburg), Biologist, Freiburg, Germany
13. David Bellamy, OBE, English botanist, author, broadcaster, environmental campaigner, Hon. Professor of Botany (Geography), University of Nottingham, Hon. Prof. Faculty of Engineering and Physical Systems, Central Queensland University, Hon. Prof. of Adult and Continuing Education, University of Durham, United Nations Environment Program Global 500 Award Winner, Dutch Order of The Golden Ark, Bishop Auckland County, Durham, U.K.
14. M. I. Bhat, Professor & Head, Department of Geology & Geophysics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
15. Ian R. Bock, BSc, PhD, DSc, Biological sciences (retired), Ringkobing, Denmark
16. Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader Emeritus, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, Editor - Energy&Environment, Multi-Science (www.multi-science.co.uk), Hull, United Kingdom
17. Atholl Sutherland Brown, PhD (Geology, Princeton University), Regional Geology, Tectonics and Mineral Deposits, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
18. Stephen C. Brown, PhD (Environmental Science, State University of New York), District Agriculture Agent, Assistant Professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Ground Penetrating Radar Glacier research, Palmer, Alaska, U.S.A.
19. James Buckee, D.Phil. (Oxon), focus on stellar atmospheres, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
20. Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., Arctic Animal Behavioural Ecologist, wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta, Canada
21. Robert M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
22. Dr. Arthur V. Chadwick, PhD, Geologist, dendrochronology (analyzing tree rings to determine past climate) lecturing, Southwestern Adventist University, Keene, Texas, U.S.A.
23. George V. Chilingar, PhD, Member, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow President, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, U.S.A. Section, Emeritus Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.
24. Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor (isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology), Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
25. Charles A. Clough, BS (Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), MS (Atmospheric Science, Texas Tech University), former (to 2006) Chief of the US Army Atmospheric Effects Team at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland; now residing in Bel Air, Maryland, U.S.A.
26. Paul Copper, BSc, MSc, PhD, DIC, FRSC, Professor Emeritus, Department of Earth Sciences, Laurentian University Sudbury, Ontario, Canada
27. Piers Corbyn, MSc (Physics (Imperial College London)), ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS, astrophysicist (Queen Mary College, London), consultant, founder WeatherAction long range forecasters, London, United Kingdom
28. Allan Cortese, meteorological researcher and spotter for the National Weather Service, retired computer professional, Billerica, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
29. Richard S. Courtney, PhD, energy and environmental consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, Falmouth, Cornwall, United Kingdom
30. Susan Crockford, PhD (Zoology/Evolutionary Biology/Archaeozoology), Adjunct Professor (Anthropology/Faculty of Graduate Studies), University of Victoria, Victoria, British Colombia, Canada
31. Claude Culross, PhD (Organic Chemistry), retired, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, U.S.A.
32. Joseph D’Aleo, BS, MS (Meteorology, University of Wisconsin), Doctoral Studies (NYU), Executive Director - ICECAP (International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project), Fellow of the AMS, College Professor Climatology/Meteorology, First Director of Meteorology The Weather Channel, Hudson, New Hampshire, U.S.A.
33. Chris R. de Freitas, PhD, Climate Scientist, School of Environment, The University of Auckland, New Zealand
34. Willem de Lange, MSc (Hons), DPhil (Computer and Earth Sciences), Senior Lecturer in Earth and Ocean Sciences, Waikato University, Hamilton, New Zealand
35. James DeMeo, PhD (University of Kansas 1986, Earth/Climate Science), now in Private Research, Ashland, Oregon, U.S.A.
36. David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A.
37. James E Dent; B.Sc., FCIWEM, C.Met, FRMetS, C.Env., Independent Consultant, Member of WMO OPACHE Group on Flood Warning, Hadleigh, Suffolk, England
38. Robert W. Durrenberger, PhD, former Arizona State Climatologist and President of the American Association of State Climatologists, Professor Emeritus of Geography, Arizona State University; Sun City, Arizona, U.S.A.
39. Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington, University, Bellingham, Washington, U.S.A.
40. Per Engene, MSc, Biologist, Bø i Telemark, Norway, Co-author The Climate. Science and Politics (2009)
41. Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, U.S.A.
42. David Evans, PhD (EE), MSc (Stat), MSc (EE), MA (Math), BE (EE), BSc, mathematician, carbon accountant and modeler, computer and electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak', Scientific Advisory Panel member - Australian Climate Science Coalition, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
43. Sören Floderus, PhD (Physical Geography (Uppsala University)), coastal-environment specialization, Copenhagen, Denmark
44. Louis Fowler, BS (Mathematics), MA (Physics), 33 years in environmental measurements (Ambient Air Quality Measurements), Austin, Texas, U.S.A.
45. Stewart Franks, PhD, Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia
46. Gordon Fulks, PhD (Physics, University of Chicago), cosmic radiation, solar wind, electromagnetic and geophysical phenomena, Corbett, Oregon, U.S.A.
47. R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa (Retired), U.S.A.
48. David G. Gee, Professor of Geology (Emeritus), Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavagen 16, Uppsala, Sweden
49. Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas, past director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey, U.S.A.
50. Gerhard Gerlich, Dr.rer.nat. (Mathematical Physics: Magnetohydrodynamics) habil. (Real Measure Manifolds), Professor, Institut für Mathematische Physik, Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany, Co-author of “Falsification Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics”, Int.J.Mod.Phys.,2009
51. Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, ScAgr, Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, Tropical pasture research and land use management, Director científico de INTTAS, Loma Plata, Paraguay
52. Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adj Professor, Royal Institute of Technology (Mech, Eng.), Secretary General KTH International Climate Seminar 2006 and Climate analyst and member of NIPCC, Lidingö, Sweden
53. Wayne Goodfellow, PhD (Earth Science), Ocean Evolution, Paleoenvironments, Adjunct Professor, Senior Research Scientist, University of Ottawa, Geological Survey of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
54. Thomas B. Gray, MS, Meteorology, Retired, USAF, Yachats, Oregon, U.S.A.
55. Vincent Gray, PhD, New Zealand Climate Coalition, expert reviewer for the IPCC, author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of Climate Change 2001, Wellington, New Zealand
56. William M. Gray, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A.
57. Kenneth P. Green, M.Sc. (Biology, University of San Diego) and a Doctorate in Environmental Science and Engineering from the University of California at Los Angeles, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, U.S.A.
58. Charles B. Hammons, PhD (Applied Mathematics), systems/software engineering, modeling & simulation, design, Consultant, Coyle, Oklahoma, U.S.A.
59. William Happer, PhD, Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics (research focus is interaction of light and matter, a key mechanism for global warming and cooling), Princeton University; Former Director, Office of Energy Research (now Office of Science), US Department of Energy (supervised climate change research), Member - National Academy of Sciences of the USA, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, American Philosophical Society; Princeton, NJ, USA.
60. Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor (Physics), University of Connecticut, The Energy Advocate, Connecticut, U.S.A.
61. Ross Hays, Atmospheric Scientist, NASA Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility, Palestine, Texas, U.S.A.
62. James A. Heimbach, Jr., BA Physics (Franklin and Marshall College), Master's and PhD in Meteorology (Oklahoma University), Prof. Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences (University of North Carolina at Asheville), Springvale, Maine, U.S.A.
63. Ole Humlum, PhD, Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Institute of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
64. Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Tempe, Arizona, U.S.A.
65. Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Tempe, Arizona, U.S.A.
66. Terri Jackson, MSc MPhil., Director, Independent Climate Research Group, Northern Ireland and London (Founder of the Energy Group at the Institute of Physics, London), U.K.
67. Albert F. Jacobs, Geol.Drs., P. Geol., Calgary, Alberta, Canada
68. Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, DSc, professor of natural sciences, Senior Science Adviser of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, researcher on ice core CO2 records, Warsaw, Poland.
69. Terrell Johnson, B.S. (Zoology), M.S. (Wildlife & Range Resources, Air & Water Quality), Principal Environmental Engineer, Certified Wildlife Biologist, Green River, Wyoming, U.S.A.
70. Bill Kappel, BS (Physical Science-Geology), BS (Meteorology), Storm Analysis, Climatology, Operation Forecasting, Vice President/Senior Meteorologist, Applied Weather Associates, LLC, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, U.S.A.
71. Wibjörn Karlén, MSc (quaternary sciences), PhD (physical geography), Professor emeritus, Stockholm University, Department of Social and Economic Geography, Geografiska Annaler Ser. A, Uppsala, Sweden
72. Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Extraordinary Research Associate; Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Tartu Observatory, Toravere, Estonia
73. David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, Whakatane, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
74. Madhav L. Khandekar, PhD, consultant meteorologist, (former) Research Scientist, Environment Canada, Editor "Climate Research” (03-05), Editorial Board Member "Natural Hazards, IPCC Expert Reviewer 2007, Unionville, Ontario, Canada
75. Leonid F. Khilyuk, PhD, Science Secretary, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Professor of Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.
76. William Kininmonth MSc, MAdmin, former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological organization’s Commission for Climatology, Kew, Victoria, Australia
77. Gary Kubat, BS (Atmospheric Science), MS (Atmospheric Science), professional meteorologist last 18 years, O'Fallon, Illinois, U.S.A.
78. Roar Larsen, Dr.ing.(PhD), Chief Scientist, SINTEF (Trondheim, Norway), Adjunct Professor, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
79. Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, President - Friends of Science, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
80. Jay Lehr, BEng (Princeton), PhD (environmental science and ground water hydrology), Science Director, The Heartland Institute, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
81. Edward Liebsch, BS (Earth Science & Chemistry), MS (Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University), Senior Air Quality Scientist, HDR Inc., Maple Grove, MN, U.S.A.
82. Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
83. Peter Link, BS, MS, PhD (Geology, Climatology), Geol/Paleoclimatology, retired, Active in Geol-paleoclimatology, Tulsa University and Industry, Evergreen, Colorado, U.S.A.
84. Anthony R. Lupo, Ph.D., Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, U.S.A.
85. Horst Malberg, PhD, former director of Institute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Germany
86. Björn Malmgren, PhD, Professor Emeritus in Marine Geology, Paleoclimate Science, Goteborg University, retired, Norrtälje, Sweden
87. Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
88. Ferenc Mark Miskolczi, PhD, atmospheric physicist, formerly of NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, U.S.A.
89. Asmunn Moene, PhD, MSc (Meteorology), former head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
90. Cdr. M. R. Morgan, PhD, FRMetS, climate consultant, former Director in marine meteorology policy and planning in DND Canada, NATO and World Meteorological Organization and later a research scientist in global climatology at Exeter University, UK, now residing in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
91. Nils-Axel Mörner, PhD (Sea Level Changes and Climate), Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
92. Robert Neff, M.S. (Meteorology, St Louis University), Weather Officer, USAF; Contractor support to NASA Meteorology Satellites, Retired, Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.A.
93. John Nicol, PhD, Physics, (Retired) James Cook University, Chairman - Australian Climate Science Coalition, Brisbane, Australia
94. Ingemar Nordin, PhD, professor in philosophy of science (including a focus on "Climate research, philosophical and sociological aspects of a politicised research area"), Linköpings University, Sweden.
95. David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
96. James J. O'Brien, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University, Florida, U.S.A.
97. Peter Oliver, BSc (Geology), BSc (Hons, Geochemistry & Geophysics), MSc (Geochemistry), PhD (Geology), specialized in NZ quaternary glaciations, Geochemistry and Paleomagnetism, previously research scientist for the NZ Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, Upper Hutt, New Zealand
98. Cliff Ollier, D.Sc., Professor Emeritus (School of Earth and Environment), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, W.A., Australia
99. Garth W. Paltridge, BSc Hons (Qld), MSc, PhD (Melb), DSc (Qld), Emeritus Professor, Honorary Research Fellow and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Visiting Fellow, RSBS, ANU, Canberra, ACT, Australia
100. R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University, Chair - International Climate Science Coalition, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
101. Alfred H. Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minnesota, U.S.A.
102. Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Mining Geology, The University of Adelaide; Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Australia
103. Daniel Joseph Pounder, BS (Meteorology, University of Oklahoma), MS (Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign); Weather Forecasting, Meteorologist, WILL AM/FM/TV, the public broadcasting station of the University of Illinois, Urbana, U.S.A.
104. Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology (Sedimentology), University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
105. Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Professor (retired) Utrecht University, isotope and planetary geology, Past-President Royal Netherlands Society of Geology and Mining, former President of the Royal Geological and Mining Society of the Netherlands, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
106. Tom Quirk, MSc (Melbourne), D Phil, MA (Oxford), SMP (Harvard), Member of the Scientific Advisory Panel of the Australian Climate Science Coalition, Member Board Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
107. George A. Reilly, PhD (Geology), Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
108. Robert G. Roper, PhD, DSc (University of Adelaide, South Australia), Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A.
109. Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, retired member board Netherlands Organization Applied Research TNO, Leiden, The Netherlands
110. Curt Rose, BA, MA (University of Western Ontario), MA, PhD (Clark University), Professor Emeritus, Department of Environmental Studies and Geography, Bishop's University, Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada
111. Rob Scagel, MSc (forest microclimate specialist), Principal Consultant - Pacific Phytometric Consultants, Surrey, British Columbia, Canada
112. Clive Schaupmeyer, B.Sc., M.Sc., Professional Agrologist (awarded an Alberta "Distinguished Agrologist"), 40 years of weather and climate studies with respect to crops, Coaldale, Alberta, Canada
113. Bruce Schwoegler, BS (Meteorology and Naval Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison), Chief Technology Officer, MySky Communications Inc, meteorologist, science writer and principal/co-founder of MySky, Lakeville, Massachusetts, U.S.A.
114. John Shade, BS (Physics), MS (Atmospheric Physics), MS (Applied Statistics), Industrial Statistics Consultant, GDP, Dunfermline, Scotland, United Kingdom
115. Gary Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, California, U.S.A.
116. Thomas P. Sheahen, PhD (Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), specialist in renewable energy, research and publication (Applied Optics) in modeling and measurement of absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric CO2, Oakland, Maryland, U.S.A.
117. Paavo Siitam, M.Sc., agronomist and chemist, Cobourg, Ontario, Canada
118. L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate Professor of Geography, specialising in Resource Management, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
119. Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama, U.S.A.
120. Walter Starck, PhD (Biological Oceanography), marine biologist (specialization in coral reefs and fisheries), author, photographer, Townsville, Australia
121. Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), member of American Chemical Society and life member of American Physical Society, Chair of "Global Warming - Scientific Controversies in Climate Variability", International seminar meeting at KTH, 2006, Stockholm, Sweden
122. Arlin Super, PhD (Meteorology), former Professor of Meteorology at Montana State University, retired Research Meteorologist, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Saint Cloud, Minnesota, U.S.A.
123. George H. Taylor, B.A. (Mathematics, U.C. Santa Barbara), M.S. (Meteorology, University of Utah), Certified Consulting Meteorologist, Applied Climate Services, LLC, Former State Climatologist (Oregon), President, American Association of State Climatologists (1998-2000), Corvallis, Oregon, U.S.A.
124. Mitchell Taylor, PhD, Biologist (Polar Bear Specialist), Wildlife Research Section, Department of Environment, Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada
125. Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Arnhem, The Netherlands
126. Frank Tipler, PhD, Professor of Mathematical Physics, astrophysics, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A.
127. Edward M. Tomlinson, MS (Meteorology), Ph.D. (Meteorology, University of Utah), President, Applied Weather Associates, LLC (leader in extreme rainfall storm analyses), 21 years US Air Force in meteorology (Air Weather Service), Monument, Colorado, U.S.A.
128. Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Dr.rer.nat. (Theoretical physics: Quantum Theory), Freelance Lecturer and Researcher in Physics and Applied Informatics, Hamburg, Germany. Co-author of “Falsification of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics, Int.J.Mod.Phys. 2009
129. Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD (Utrecht University), geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, Christchurch, New Zealand
130. A.J. (Tom) van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors
131. Gösta Walin, PhD in Theoretical physics, Professor emeritus in oceanography, Earth Science Center, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden
132. Neil Waterhouse, PhD (Physics, Thermal, Precise Temperature Measurement), retired, National Research Council, Bell Northern Research, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
133. Anthony Watts, 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. In 1987, he founded ItWorks, which supplies custom weather stations, Internet servers, weather graphics content, and broadcast video equipment. In 2007, Watts founded SurfaceStations.org, a Web site devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S., U.S.A.
134. Charles L. Wax, PhD (physical geography: climatology, LSU), State Climatologist – Mississippi, past President of the American Association of State Climatologists, Professor, Department of Geosciences, Mississippi State University, U.S.A.
135. James Weeg, BS (Geology), MS (Environmental Science), Professional Geologist/hydrologist, Advent Environmental Inc, Mt. Pleasant, South Carolina, U.S.A.
136. Forese-Carlo Wezel, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Stratigraphy (global and Mediterranean geology, mass biotic extinctions and paleoclimatology), University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy
137. Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former adjunct professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
138. David E. Wojick, PhD, PE, energy and environmental consultant, Technical Advisory Board member - Climate Science Coalition of America, Star Tannery, Virginia, U.S.A.
139. Raphael Wust, PhD, Adj Sen. Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
140. Stan Zlochen, BS (Atmospheric Science), MS (Atmospheric Science), USAF (retired), Omaha, Nebraska, U.S.A.
141. Dr. Bob Zybach, PhD (Oregon State University (OSU), Environmental Sciences Program), MAIS (OSU, Forest Ecology, Cultural Anthropology, Historical Archaeology), BS (OSU College of Forestry), President, NW Maps Co., Program Manager, Oregon Websites and Watersheds Project, Inc., Cottage Grove, Oregon, U.S.A."
The difficulty for people worldwide is how to deal with this most serious issue. I think we know that governments are big on announcements and do little on climate change. Our experience in Canada is an example of our politicians saying the right thing but doing nothing.
I can understand why people want to shoot the messenger because they fear the results.
But Bob you are correct in lamenting our science community as people would rather discuss Tiger Woods indiscretions than the science of climate change.
It remains to be seen whether we can accept the truth or duck and cover challenged by the issue.
I believe we have failed the next generation.
MapleLeaf, here is where you have the blinders on. Scientists that study and publish in the field of climate science receive funding to study the problem. Do you not see the conflict here. How long do you think they would be able to continue if they published to the contrary?
Many scientists (some are hard to call scientists) spend a career on government funding studying in area's where they are never held accountable for anything. The study of temperature proxies by tree rings is a perfect example. They spend a lot of time and produce really nice papers, but are never subject to proper testing (peer review by the way means nothing)to see how accurate their theories are. I would like to see them take part in double blind tests to determine their degree of accuracy. They would never submit to such tests because their work would be exposed as pure garbage. Real scientists and engineers take up fields where their work can be verified, and peoples lives are at stake if they're wrong. I ask you to go to Wikepedia and read all the theories of what caused the ice age. Lots of study and theories, but the bottom line is, no one knows for sure.
Bob says:
"We are often criticized on our radio program for not including people on the other side of the climate “debate" to provide balance. If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it. But such a body of evidence does not exist."
Here is a list of 450 peer-reviewed scientific publications to get you started:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/450_peer_reviewed_papers.pdf
"If there were good, peer-reviewed scientific publications that provided solid evidence to counter the climate science, we would run it. But such a body of evidence does not exist."
Here's a list of 450 papers:
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
here is what you do .. make private funding of scientific studies illegal. any money wished to be devoted to science goes through an independent body and it is divided equally to all and no preference is given to any one side of the story ... as soon as someone gets more money for saying yes instead of no then the yes's will outnumber the no's .. i mean come on .. if a guy walks up to 10 people and says .. i got 10 dollars for everyone who says yes to me and i will give 2 dollars to everyone who says no .. everyone will say yes .. there is another guy beside him that says i got the whole 10 dollars for someone to say no .. well someone who isnt so sure what he is saying yes too .. will say no or yes as long as he gets the 10 dollars
In answering the critics that say that the "other side" of the debate is always absent, the reply is always 'well, if there were peer-reviewed studies in good journals, we would include that'. But part of the problem with the politics of climate change science is that peer-review is a great tool for suppressing unpopular and non-conforming ideas, regardless of the validity of those ideas.
It is unclear if global warming is happening and far from certain that humans are causing it. More importantly if global warming is the result of human activity is their warming a bad thing will it hurt future generations and what impacts will that have.
According to the Copenhagen Consensus a Danish think tank, adaption is the most cost effective way to deal with climate change. What does adaption mean? Basically areas which are hurt by global warming will see economies shrink and other areas will see economic growth. This will cause people to move which will cause changes in land values. Also there is concern the developing world would be hurt more than the developed countries; if this is the case it suggests that these countries should grow their economies to put cars, refrigerators and air conditioners in the hands of more people.
What are the potential impacts of global warming? Some effects are flooding of costal cities, but likely in the area of 24 inches over 100 years, other effects could be desertification of some agricultural areas and improved production in others (something which should be reflected in land values and immigration patterns) it will mean more deaths from heat exhaustion but fewer from hypothermia, likely a net drop in deaths.
What if people are hurt by global warming? One estimate says that if we don't deal with climate change the standard of living 3 generations from now will be hurt 20%. Lets put that in perspective. In 1900 the average income was somewhere between $1200 in todays money now it is $8800 if the current trend continues it will be over $100 000.00 per year. So if global warming costs 20% thats still $80 000.00 per year or about $107 000 in the industrialized world and $66 000 in the developing world. Even if our great grand children are hurt by climate change they will still be far richer than we are today and in a better position to solve climate change if it proves to be a serious problem.
Don, unless you have a research chair, you as an academic do not have your salary paid from the granting agency. There is no conflict of interest. Those funds are used for many things, including field work, purchasing equipment and most importantly to support grad students.
Anyhow, you are making straw men arguments.
Stan,
Your list is hardly credible. You also neglect that numerous of the scientists listed have (or have had) ties to the fossil fuel industry, and or far-right wing think tanks.
There are over 2700 scientists who actively publish in the field of climate science and related disciplines. How many of the people listed are active in the field of climate research Stan? Search for the signatories here (a list of people active in the field of climate science):
http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/
Also they state "We the undersigned, being qualified in climate-related scientific disciplines" That statement is misleading and in some cases not even true. Read the list and go to the link.
They also do not understand how the scientific method works. Or they do, but choose to ignore the central canons of scientific method. The onus is on the denialists to prove the AGW to be wrong. They present no evidence to support their claims in their letter. Tom Harris (from an astroturf group) is one of the signatories, he tried the same thing in Bali, and now he is doing it again. Members of "Friends" of science, a complete misnomer, are also signatories on this letter.
This letter and list of "climate" scientists is a farce, and hopefully the public see right through it.
Stan "Sorry, the peer review process was perverted and corrupted by the SRU climate 'scientists' and therefore isn't a valid argument anymore."
You are making incorrect and sweeping generalizations. Actually Stan the CRU scientists did not pervert the peer review process. Chris de Freitas (a renowned "skeptic") the chief editor at ONE journal, Climate Research, subverted the peer review process by rubber stamping junk science papers written by skeptics. He was allowing them to publish junk science without them first going through the proper peer review. It was for this reason that the ethical scientists (some of whom work at CRU) were upset, and when the editors of Climate Research were notified of the misconduct by the denialists, they resigned in protest.
CRU was standing up for credible and ethical science, it was the skeptics who were undermining the credibility of the scientific method.
Please, do try and get your facts right, and do not believe everything you read on denialist blogs. Try these sites for some clarity:
http://www.pewclimate.org/science/university-east-anglia-cru-hacked-emails-analysis
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/global_warming_contrarians/debunking-misinformation-stolen-emails-climategate.html
MapleLeaf, you can't prove your premise by quoting quoting your conclusion.
The CRU admitted to perverting the peer review process so that would invalidate any reference to their peer reviewed papers or conclusions.
Your logic is circular and therfore is nonsense.
It's pretty basic.
Don't you get it yet?
You've been lied to by the AGW church.
Quoting those lies is an illogical way to try to prove your point.
And yes, the CRU was a major player in the AGW movement.
Maple leaf, why would you quote the Pew folks when they are part of the farce?
As bad as the emils are the computor code is far worse.
And the computor code clearly shows the CRU wasn't doing science.
So why would you try to make a scientific argument based on fraud and the disasterous computer code and the perversion of the peer review process?
Here's what the CBC left out of the '1700 climate researchers' story.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6951029.ece
"Top scientists rally to the defence of the Met Office
More than 1,700 scientists have agreed to sign a statement defending the “professional integrity” of global warming research. They were responding to a round-robin request from the Met Office, which has spent four days collecting signatures.
The initiative is a sign of how worried it is that e-mails stolen from the University of East Anglia are fuelling scepticism about man-made global warming at a critical moment in talks on carbon emissions.
One scientist said that he felt under pressure to sign the circular or risk losing work. The Met Office admitted that many of the signatories did not work on climate change.
One scientist told The Times he felt under pressure to sign. “The Met Office is a major employer of scientists and has long had a policy of only appointing and working with those who subscribe to their views on man-made global warming,” he said. "
Now why would the CBC miss that part of the story?
Bob,
I belive in my fellow man and so it is time to demonstrate and use our collective strength.
To bring change to the way we live, throught conservation,the use of current technlogies, to reduce our depenency on fossil fuels,look to nature and rediscover from whence we came.
First we must demonstrate our collective will, yes by the thousands, and in every capital, our future depends on our will to make change happen.
Well MapleLeaf, I read your recommended sites for clarity. What I saw was more spin than even OJ's dream team could come up with.
So the trees responded accurately to temperature up until 1960, then suddenly morphed genetically not to follow temperature after 1960. Wow! Now you know what I mean about the temperature proxies from tree rings being pure unadulterated garbage.
I would like to see tree samples collected from around the world and have these so called experts give us the local temperature in which they grew. Just as psychics they would never submit to a double blind test because they would be exposed as fakes.
Don't believe everything that's hung under the banner of science. Naturopathic medicine is a science, but I would never go to anyone that practiced it.
Oh dear, it seems the only way the 'scientists' here at the CBC can win the argument is to censor comments.
You know it you think about that for a bit in light of the recent current events regarding emails and suppression of data there might be a lesson in there somewhere.......
Hilarious!
"we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This "double ethical bind" we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."
Who said this?
Galileo?
Einstein?
Crick?
Or a climate 'scientist' at the CRU?
Maple leaf writes:
"They also do not understand how the scientific method works. Or they do, but choose to ignore the central canons of scientific method. The onus is on the denialists to prove the AGW to be wrong."
You must be kidding me!
The scientific method does not work that way.
If my theory says the moon is made of green cheese the onus is on me to prove that it is, it's not on you to prove that it isn't.
You can look that one up.
Stan and Don,
Don, you clearly have no understanding about how they construct dendro chronologies, or the issues involved in doing so. With respect, you are clearly showing your ignorance. You probably also believe that "hiding the decline" meant that they increased the observed surface air temperatures (SAT)to "hide" the decrease in global SATs. That is what most media outlets are saying is it not? But that would be completely incorrect.
Also, riddle me this, three other independently derived global SAT data sets all show the same warming trend (The NASA GISS data and code are freely avaialable online). Not to mention the satellite data and weather balloon data. Are they also involved in this gargantuan conspiracy?
There are issues with dendro chronologies? Yes, and those issues and the "divergence problem" since 1960 are being discussed at depth in the scientific literature. So, let us toss the dendro SAT proxies.
Now, we have borehole proxies showing the marked warming, we have ice cores showing the same marked warming, we have lake and ocean sediments showing the same marked warming. All of these independently derived global temperature reconstructions show the same "Hocky Stick" shape.
You might also want to read Mann et al. (2009), the data and code are all freely available for you to try and refute their findings that the MWP was regional in natiure, and that the current wearmth is indeed greater than that observed during the MWP. And please do not direct readers to some bogus MWP page on an infamous internet blog.
Stan:
"So why would you try to make a scientific argument based on fraud and the disasterous computer code and the perversion of the peer review process?"
Yes Stan, the whole scientific community and world governments are part of this scam that only you are your ilk are enlightened enough to see through (sarc). Seriously, you are making yet more unsubstantiated allegations concerning the code.
Exactly what "fraud" has been committed? And be very careful what you grab from an internet blog when you answer. Where did the scientist/s at CRU admit to "perverting the peer-review process". Again, be careful of grabbing something form a blog. Demonstrate your point giving all the relevant details of the discussion and not just cherry-picking.
And you refuse to read exactly what actually happened/transpired at the journal Climate Research. The "skeptics" (i.e., Chris de Freitas) were the ones perverting the peer-review process. But hey, if you are OK with journal editors doing what de Freitas did, then you don not have a leg to stand on when it comes to lecturing others on ethics and scientific method.
And please do not try and offend me by drawing parallels between science and religion. That just shows the depth of your desperation.
As for spin, you are the ones spinning the content of the stolen CRU emails. It is not spin to explain the facts and place them in the appropriate context. Spin is taking facts, like your cohorts have, and distorting and misrepresenting the data and science and comments made by scientists. It is becasue of this manipulation of the facts by the skeptics that "ClimateGate" is not going to be remembered for the reaosons who had hoped.
PS: Several reputable journals in atmospheric, oceanographic and climate sciences use a double-blind process for peer review.
PPS: I am all too familiar with these debates, the skeptics bring forth unsubstantiated allegations and rhetoric, and no matter how many times you provide them the facts, the truth, they remain deaf/blind to them. Have a great weekend guys.
Stan,
Your tone is becoming increasingly offensive.
First, you start with a hypothesis, not a theory as you state; a theory is much wider in scope and importance than is a hypothesis. Second, science either supports or refutes a hypothesis. Nothing in science is ever proven.
There is overwhelming evidence (theoretical and empirical) amassed over a period of about 115 years (since the seminal work of Arrhenius in 1896) which support the theory of AGW.
As for data refuting it, there are only tenuous grasps put forth by denialists which quickly fall apart under close scrutiny. For example, Lindzen and Choi's paper published earlier this year-- even fellow skeptics (e.g., Spencer) refuted it. Yet , denialists continue to trump it as evidence that AGW is a hoax.
Bob - we agree on some basics, but I think you're being very premature in buying Algore's nonsense that the "science is settled". A few days spent reading various articles indicates the following (I won't bother posting all the links - you have Google Scholar the same as I have): the earth is warming - by about 1 degree since the end of the Little Ice Age. About half of this rise has occurred in the last 30 years, but it has remained either flat or in slight decline since the 1998 El Nino. CO2 is a minor "greenhouse" gas, and human caused CO2 is a minor portion of the whole, about 3%. C02 undoubtedly plays a small role in this 1 degree rise. The 20 or so IPCC models assume a highly positive feedback mechanism, driven by this slight CO2-caused rise, to explain the rest of the rise. Their models are not able to account for the actual temperature data over the last few decades, however, and appear to be overstating the magnitude of the feedback mechanism. They ignore clouds and the role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in cloud cover. They also ignore the fact that most of the available infrared radiation, in the wavelengths capable of being absorbed by CO2, are already being absorbed. Increasing CO2 levels will not increase infrared radiation capture. It appears to be distinctly possible that the science of global climate has been hi-jacked by politics and money.
Bob:
Piltdown man.
40 years for the deniers to be proven right. And it wasn't in Scientific American or Nature that the fraud was revealed. It was The Times. Indeed, 3 years before being discredited, Nature was STILL publishing articles that accepted Piltdown Man as fact.
JE
Maple leaf, you have proven you have no idea as to how science works. You have to prove your theory, I don't have to disprove it.
You write: "There is overwhelming evidence (theoretical and empirical) amassed over a period of about 115 years (since the seminal work of Arrhenius in 1896) which support the theory of AGW."
Sadly much of that 'overwhelming evidence' has proved to have been faked and massaged by the AGW church to produce the results they want: "we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."
Look at the travesty that the surface stations have become and how the corrections invariably increase the reading, they never decrease them.
Since the corrections are supposed to be allowing for the urban heat island effect it would be logical to see the corrections decrease the readings, not increase them.
And I couldn't care less if you think I'm offensive, I find this perversion of science offensive.
It's junk science, any fool can see that. If it wasn't they wouldn't have to lie and cheat and break the law to get the results they want.
And your explanation of the corruption of the peer review process is beyond laughable, but then it wouldn't be the first time an AGW disciple got away with telling the BIG lie.
Why are AGW 'scientists' still trying to blackball dissenters?
"The vibe that I am getting from here, there and everywhere is that your reportage is very worrisome to most climate scientists. Of course, your blog is your blog. But, I sense that you are about to experience the 'Big Cutoff' from those of us who believe we can no longer trust you, me included."
Yup, sounds like science to me, (sarcasm off)
Face it sonny, it's over, the lie is exposed.
Maple leaf writes: "Second, science either supports or refutes a hypothesis. Nothing in science is ever proven."
Really?
Better tell that to Suzuki, he wants to jail anyone who doesn't believe the AGW theory.
Maple leaf, how will the Copenhagen treaty cure anything?
Since Chinese industry is more polluting per unit of production than industry in the developed world and China won't be bound by the proposed Copenhagen treaty, how will the treaty reduce pollution?
The proposed treaty will dramatically increase costs to countries bound by it, same as Kyoto increased costs to industry in Europe.
So China's dirtier industry will have an even greater competitive advantage than they have now which will mean more production will move there plus we'll ship our raw materials there and the finished products back here.
So more pollution, not less.
This treaty makes as much sense as the insane scheme to use food for fuel.
As a committed environmentalist you will be very vocally opposed to the proposed Copenhagen treaty since it will increase pollution instead of reducing it, right?
Right?
Pretty simple when you think about it.
Game, set, and match.
Yes science is under seige. By the corrupt 'scientists' at East Anglia and by YOU! It is bad enought the these fascists have perverted everything good in science for their political cause, but you too Bob are now also to blame. I am a lover of science. It grieves me to see you gloss over this corruption. If you really loved science you would want to do everything you could to purge it of these reprobates. Instead you are part of the problem, helping this psuedo scientist/political activists corrupt science.
MapleLeaf,
You have your view I have mine. I may not be as ignorant as you think, but let's wait and see how everything unfolds. I think you are going to find that we are only on chapter one when it comes to understanding climate.
Even Briffa thought the MWP was warmer than present. When I have doubts you label me a denier.
I can see your position wasn't achieved by critical thinking, so no amount of critical thinking will change it.
Last post from me.
"When it comes to climate change, science seems to have taken a back seat."
Science took a "back seat" on climate change the day that "climate scientists" decided pollute the scientific endeavour.
They did so by mixing science with politics and advocacy for their cause - which included co-opting a coalition of willing journalists such as yourself.
As for "peer review" being the be-all and end-all of qualification to be deemed worthy of discussion ... It is quite obvious that, in the field of "climate science", peer review does not include any verification - either by the reviewers, or by the journal editors - of the underlying data in support of the researchers' claims.
Thus, whatever the "consensus" on "climate change" (formerly known as global warming) might be, it most certainly cannot be considered "science".
http://hro001.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/delusions-of-climate-modellers-and-the-madness-of-crowds/
Just one more thought to Ponder. Had the tree proxy data showed more warming than instrument data from 1960 onwards, would it have been discarded? Maybe I'm just ignorant as Mapleleaf respectfully states, but my hunch is it would have been gleefully used. There would never have been an email to the effect that they were going to hide the increase.
How anyone can say the science is not biased boggles my mind.
"When it comes to climate change, science seems to have taken a back seat."
Science took a "back seat" on climate change the day that "climate scientists" decided pollute the scientific endeavour.
They did so by mixing science with politics and advocacy for their cause - which included co-opting a coalition of willing journalists such as yourself.
As for "peer review" being the be-all and end-all of qualification to be deemed worthy of discussion ... It is quite obvious that, in the field of "climate science", peer review does not include any verification - either by the reviewers, or by the journal editors - of the underlying data in support of the researchers' claims.
Thus, whatever the "consensus" on "climate change" (formerly known as global warming) might be, it most certainly cannot be considered "science".
http://hro001.wordpress.com/2009/12/12/delusions-of-climate-modellers-and-the-madness-of-crowds/
It was the "scientists" of the Climate change camp who have damaged and compromised today's climate research industry. By falsifying, manipulating, and destroying data, they have set back climate research for years. Now, the entire CRU database must be re-gathered, re-collated, and re-analysised.
All of this, because the evidence for AGW wasn't sufficient to support the HYPOTHESIS of AGW. And you'all have made hero's out of these non-scientific scientists. Shameful.
Stan and Don,
Stan "As a committed environmentalist". This a false choice Stan. Besides, who said that I was an environmentalist? And what has this to do with Bob's article?
Don "Even Briffa thought the MWP was warmer than present. "
This a a straw man, and to my knowledge not correct. Where did he say that? Besides Mann et al. (2009) have hopefully settled this MWP fiasco once and for all-- the MWP was regional, and global SATs during that time were not as high as they are now. Denialists blogs might try and say otherwise, but they have not published several papers on the issue nor have they invested a good 20 years or so of their lives looking into this problem.
Bob and other reasonable, level-headed people are not listening to Fox news and making rash judgements based on sound bites and a few lines of text cherry-picked by quote mining. There will be an impartial enquiry into the emails and the hack. I will reserve my judgement until then and respect the official ruling. I would suggest that you and Stan, and everyone else, do the same.
Don "Had the tree proxy data showed more warming than instrument data from 1960 onwards, would it have been discarded?"
Read more about this at deepclimate.org. Actually, they were trying to reconcile several proxy SAT constructions. Things are never as simple as they may seem Don. You have not looked into this in detail and going by your post here, you have made an a priori decision as to what the "truth" is, and thus demonstrate bias. Ironically, one of the targeted scientists accused of fraud says:
"We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance."
This is not a skeptic, this is a scientists trying to do the right thing.
And for the record Don, I never called you a "denier", although you sure do sound like someone who is in denial about AGW. And before you get indignant, it is your ilk referring to those concerned about AGW as "jihadists" (Steve McIntyre and Edmonton Journal's Lamphier), or "Hitler youth" (Monckton). Calling someone a "denier/denialists" is calling a spade a spade, and has nothing to do with WWII, although you might conveniently choose to interpret it that way or invoke that excuse, but that is your choice. You are not a skeptic, the true skeptics are the scientists, they are required to be skeptical. Nor are not a 'realist'.
Stan "Better tell that to Suzuki, he wants to jail anyone who doesn't believe the AGW theory."
Actually, you are telling lies, and trying to move the goal posts again. Suzuki said "What I would challenge you to do is to put a lot of effort into trying to see whether there's a legal way of throwing our so-called leaders into jail because what they're doing is a criminal act". Wow, I really do not think that you Stan are in a position to accuse others of misrepresenting the facts.
Dr. Suzuki or Al Gore do not determine the science behind climate change. They are just figure heads and "poster boys" for the denialists to discredit and try and undermine the credibility of the science-- they make for easy targets. What Suzuki or Gore may or not think or understand, does not change the science, and you guys just don't get it. The same holds true for denialists such as Senator Inhofe, or Marc Morano or Monckton. Except Suzuki does not steal other people's email and then purposefully misrepresent, distort and lie about their content and true meaning in the public eye. Nor does he make death threats against scientists who oppose AGW. Nor does he take money from (or has/had strong ties with) the FF or energy industry as Lindzen, Spencer, Christy, Singer, Ball and pretty much every other alleged "reputable" AGW skeptics out there. Don't believe me, do some research and see for yourself.
Oh and Don, critical thinking has gotten me far in life, that and my BS filter :)
MapleLeaf, at the bottom are some of Briffa's emails. Spin it how you want, but Briffa wasn't entirely convinced of unprecedented warming in a thousand years.
See, here's the difference between you and me. I still hold the possibility that some of the warming may be manmade, I only question the purity and reliability of the science. You on the other hand do not question anything in regards to AGW.
Having spent a career working on complex systems in the field of computer networking and programming, I used to instill in my employees to always hold the possibility that they might be wrong. I found that the most dangerous people within an organization are the ones that always think they're 100% correct. Life experience teaches us that everything is not always as it appears. This is how science works as well. People that question consensus should never be labeled "deniers". Don't forget that up until 1950 the consensus was that CO2 could have no effect on climate.
Two of Briffa's emails
"I know there is pressure to present a nice tidy story as regards 'apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data' but in reality the situation is not quite so simple… [There are] some unexpected changes in response that do not match the recent warming. I do not think it wise that this issue be ignored in the chapter. (Briffa, Sep 22, 1999, 0938031546.txt)"
"For the record, I do believe that the proxy data do show unusually warm conditions in recent decades. I am not sure that this unusual warming is so clear in the summer responsive data. I believe that the recent warmth was probably matched about 1000 years ago. I do not believe that global mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that require explanation and that could represent part of the current or future background variability of our climate. (Briffa, Sep 22, 1999, 0938031546.txt)"
My God Maple Leaf, are you suggesting that I shouldn't exaggerate Suzuki's remarks to bolster my argument?
What a ground breaking and thoroughly radical concept!
Now go tell that to the 'scientists' at the CRU.
BTW, I'm still waiting for your explanation of how shutting down the clean industry here and moving production to the much dirtier factories in China will reduce pollution.
Should be an easy one to answer, shouldn't it?
After all that's how the treaty was arrived at wasn't it?
They wanted to solve the problem of emissions so their solution should in some way be aimed in the general direction of reduced emissions, no?
But oddly enough the 'solution' they arrived at is great at redistributing wealth and an utter failure at reducing pollution.
Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmm.....
Why are you supporting a treaty that will increase pollution?
Bob:
Is Al Gore a scientist? CBC showed his Inconvenient Truth on TV. Was it peer-reviewed? Yes, Christopher Monckton peer-reviewed it and found 35 errors but the CBC just ignores it and keeps preaching the untruth of global warming. The climate has not changed much in temperature for the last 10 years. The Medieval Warming period 1000 years ago was warmer than now, with no harm done, and without GHG. The CBC is very much biased in its reporting and the ombudsman does not even answer his mail. Call me disgusted.
Global cooling deniers sure dominate the airwaves. Lord Monckton is no fool yet he will never be heard on CBC. This I find reprehensible as a taxpayer.
Monckton has now slandered/libeled ten or so of the top publicly-funded global warming promoters, calling them crooks,etc. on the basis of his citicism of their deliberately flawed models, specifically designed to mislead.
If he provokes no legal response from any of these individuals very soon, I think the question of whether or not we all have been had by a cabal of publicly-funded groupies will be finally answered without the help of the CBC. How very sad.
The CBC is a participant in the largest scientific scam in history.
Why are we giving them a billion dollars a year to lie to us?
Why doesn't the CBC run Not Evil Just Wrong or The Great Global Warming Swindle as many times as they run Gore's lie riddled An Inconvenient Truth?
Gore's film has been proved in a UK court to be full of lies yet the CBC faithfully trots it out every chance they can.
I'm not a scientist, but I think the climate change issue can be viewed in fairly simple terms.
Planet Earth is a closed system. The only external inputs and outputs are light, gravity and heat. It is always striving to achieve balance or equalibrium.
Planet Earth had this huge volume of carbon stuck in the ground in the form of oil, coal, natural gas etc. These forms of carbon had been stuck there in the ground for a really long time, millions of years maybe.
These forms of carbon used to be plants and animals. That is to say, they used to be "in play" within the surface environment of our planet (air, land, water).
Lord knows how long it took, how many cataclysmic events occurred to kill all that plant and animal life and then to have heat, time and pressure convert it into oil, coal, natural gas etc. I imagine the planet looked very different from what it does today. Fossil records are turning up all sorts of creatures that existed in parts of the world where they certainly would not exist today.
Anyway, all this carbon was taken "out of play", stuck in the ground and there it sat until about a hundred years ago. Up to that point the planet was in balance, more or less. Sure, ice ages came and went, climate changes occurred. But they occurred at their own pace as dictated by the closed circuit nature of the system called Earth.
So then humans come along and pump all this carbon out of the ground and let it loose in the atmosphere in the form of CO2, methane etc. All in about a hundred years, which in geologic time doesn't even come close to a blink of an eye.
So now we have a closed system that has just had a massive, rapid injection of stuff into play that's been out of play for millions of years. I can't tell you what is going to change, but I can tell you that something's going to change and I'm willing guess that it won't be pretty, benign or inconsequential.
I don't really see how any one can ignore, refute or downplay the climate change issue when you look at it in these simple terms (and I don't think the terms are fundamentally inaccurate.)
Bob,
I saw you on CBC news lastnight marvelling over the liquid CO2 being pumped out at a South Pacific ocean ridge eruption. As undersea volcanism accounts for over 80% of the total volcanic activity, I am surprised that you didn't make the connection with,say, dead zones, acidic dissolution of reefs and other effects that the "climate changers"are constantly bedwetting about.
This is common sense. No peer review required.
Bob, no-one is arguing whether the climate has warmed over the past 150 years. The debate is over the mechanisms which drive climate change and whether it is unprecedented or not. Given that the earth 6.5 billion years old, it is highly likely that similar rates of warming have occurred before....just Google "abrupt climate change". So please stop using the word "unprecedented", it is incorrect and something which cannot be proven.
We also know that the earth has definitely been warmer, possibly as little as a 1,000 years ago, and certainly during the Holocene optimum (6,000-8,000 years ago). However, the mechanism which drove these warming episodes (and subsequent coolings) is unknown, and by your atmospheric bubble evidence it was not CO2. So the question is, if we do not understand the mechanisms which drove past climate changes, then why would we be so confident that we fully understand it now? How do we know these factors aren't at work right now? The answer is undeniably that we don't really know (despite what some climate scientists will tell you). The prevailing theory of CO2 being the main driver is weak and the evidence circumstantial at best.
Science is not about consensus or having the most scientists supporting a particular theory. It's about who's right, and only one person needs to be right...remember Galileo or Wegener?
The over-confidence of scientists who support the CO2 hypothesis is unfounded and arrogant to the point of being distasteful and obnoxious. There is a serious need for some humility here. The Royal Society should welcome scientific debate and skepticism, and so should you.
Bob, no-one is arguing whether the climate has warmed over the past 150 years. The debate is over the mechanisms which drive climate change and whether it is unprecedented or not. Given that the earth 6.5 billion years old, it is highly likely that similar rates of warming have occurred before....just Google "abrupt climate change". So please stop using the word "unprecedented", it is incorrect and something which cannot be proven.
We also know that the earth has definitely been warmer, possibly as little as a 1,000 years ago, and certainly during the Holocene optimum (6,000-8,000 years ago). However, the mechanism which drove these warming episodes (and subsequent coolings) is unknown, and by your atmospheric bubble evidence it was not CO2. So the question is, if we do not understand the mechanisms which drove past climate changes, then why would we be so confident that we fully understand it now? How do we know these factors aren't at work right now? The answer is undeniably that we don't really know (despite what some climate scientists will tell you). The prevailing theory of CO2 being the main driver is weak and the evidence circumstantial at best.
Science is not about consensus or having the most scientists supporting a particular theory. It's about who's right, and only one person needs to be right...remember Galileo or Wegener?
The over-confidence of scientists who support the CO2 hypothesis is unfounded and arrogant to the point of being distasteful and obnoxious. There is a serious need for some humility here. The Royal Society should welcome scientific debate and skepticism, and so should you.
If the scientists are raising a flag then it is no longer science but politics.
"Bravo Bob! This should be required reading. But as we all know, what's happening this time is that too many plan to make too much money from old-fashioned energy sources."
I disagree wind is in fact a much older energy source than fossil fuels dating back thousands of years and seeing a steady decline since the industrial revolution. Why is their money in fossil fuels and in discovering new sources of these fuels? It is because coal, oil, and natural gas provide energy more efficiently than other means. When John Rockerfeller started selling oil most people didn't stay up after dark, only the rich could afford whale oil but soon oil was power lamps and in time cars and machinery. It made possible the internal combustion engine improving efficiency by ending the need for steam. It has been feared that oil would run out since the 19th century but this has not happened It was feared oil would run out in the 1920's 1940' 1980's but this has not happened, why? Two things price signals and technology. As oil supplies decline the price goes up this encourages the development of new sources of supply investment in infrastructure prospecting and new technology. As long as the price is high people do more to conserve fuel and to fuel efficient ways to do things. As new oil fields come on line and people use better devices the cost of energy goes down and quality of life goes up. That happens not just with oil but with every resource, and it is why our quality of life has improve so drastically the last 150 years.
Sorry Bob but this global warming cause is NOT CO2 and the history of this planet is there as proof. The IPCC has not told the whole truth and only published the adulterated facts to support their view.Bob I have a book for you to read with all the scientific references and with your abilities and connection I'm sure can follow up as I did.
Heaven and Earth global warming and the missing science
BY Ian Plimer(University of Adelaide)
Ron, I have news for you. Bob or any of the AGW crowd will never read the book, nor any scientific paper that goes against their belief.
Most skeptics such as myself read all the information we can find, even the IPCC propaganda. I have no problem calling it propaganda, because that's what it is. The CRU emails prove that they conspired to produce the hockey stick. The one that Mr. Gore had to climb a step ladder to get to the blade.
Anyone that can work with spreadsheets I would encourage you to go to
www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca
You can download bulk weather data and graph your own temperature charts. I have done most of Canada. What you will find is that day time highs have not increased significantly if at all. Large cities quite often have an increase in the low temp reading. Probably due to the heat Island effect. There is a definite sag in the temperatures in the 60's and 70's, then a slight recovery in the 80's and 90's. The present temperatures have leveled off and now seem to be in decline.
I have procesed data worldwide using stacked mathematical diffusion techniques and related statistical methods and forcasted a brutal cooling this winter, but, more importantly, next winter will be worse. This will result in crop failures and severe increases in grain prices etc. There is a well-defined, sharp, dangerous cooling trend in place.
Guru
nb. I will never release, under any circumstances, information on my data sets and proessing techniques as I wish to remain a qualified candidate to be interviewed on Bob's show, or other CBC venue.
Great report Bob!!
However what seems to be alluded to, but not clearly looked at is “WHY is there a need to create this skepticism”. The almighty buck?
Can our global economy handle the sharp reductions and life changes that need to occur in order to mitigate climate change? Who pays for the under-developed countries environmentally sound infrastructure? I’m sure those countries must be thinking, “You got yours, what about us?”
Forgive me, but I just wanted to show a different point to view. I do follow climate science and have reduced my own carbon footprint substantially by moving much closer to work and reducing my living space and energy consumption. Carry on the good work, my friend! Eileen