Consumer confidence up after a rocky year
Last Updated: Monday, December 21, 2009 | 4:00 PM ET
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Positive expectations about employment and household income helped boost the consumer confidence index by more than 26 points over the course of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
The December index rose to 82.8 points, up 3.7 points from November, and 26.2 points from January 2009. The figures indicated consumers are finally starting to feel more confident that the economy is going in the right direction, said Pedro Antunes, the board's director of national and provincial forecasting.
The consumer confidence index is measured on a 100-point scale and takes 2002 as its base year, i.e. the year the index is assigned a value of 100.
"I can say the latest numbers were good news because there had been some declines in consumer confidence," said Antunes. "Consumer confidence in the last few months has been going sideways, so it's good to see it end the year on an upswing."
It's certainly been a rocky year. The index bottomed out in December 2008, hitting a low of 52 points, as Canadians absorbed bad news of stock market crashes and bank bailouts around the world.
"It was a deep recession low," said Antunes of December 2008. "It had been two months of really bad news. The stock market had fallen, and there was a lot of talk about depression."
For the next two months, the index continued to hover in the 50s range, but began a steady rise in April, as the fear of global depression began to recede. At this point, the stock market had started to bounce back, and the global financial system appeared to gaining stability, along with the North American real estate market.
Then came October and November, when consumer confidence faltered once again.
"There was uncertainty about this recovery and implications of these big [government] deficits. Was it truly a recovery?" said Antunes.
The index is the result of a poll of 2,000 Canadians and is a ratio of positive and negative responses about the economy based on four questions:
- Are you better off financially than you were six months ago?
- Do you think your financial situation will improve in the next six months?
- Do you think there will be more jobs in your community in the next six months?
- Do you think it's a good time to buy a major item, like a car or a house?
"We do know that interest rates drive consumption," said Antunes. "We know that wealth and debt levels have an impact on consumption. Still, we're not back to normal in terms of consumer spending."
In terms of monthly changes, the biggest regional gain in consumer confidence was in Atlantic Canada, where the index rose 10.8 points, compared to November.
Ontario, which has taken a hit in the manufacturing department, also saw a significant increase of 7.5 points.
Confidence in the Prairie region increased for a fifth consecutive month.
The index fell marginally in only two provinces: British Columbia and Quebec.
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