Canadians unemployed 15 weeks on average
Duration of Canadian unemployment shorter than in U.S., shorter than last recession
Last Updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 | 12:52 PM ET
CBC News
Canadians who lost their jobs during the current recession have been unemployed for 15 weeks on average, according to a new report released Wednesday by CIBC World Markets.
In the Consumer Watch Canada report, "Canadian Unemployment — The Long and Short of It," senior economist Benjamin Tal says the average length of unemployment is shorter than it was during the recession of the early 1990s.
Then, at an equivalent point during that recession, Canadians found themselves unemployed for an average of 20 weeks, he says.
"Behind the scene, away from the spotlights, the duration of unemployment in Canada has been relatively stable during the recession — a dramatic contrast to both the experience of past recessions and the recent surge in the duration of unemployment in the U.S.," Tal writes.
Tal says the average length of unemployment in Canada was 14 weeks before the recession began.
Meanwhile, he says the average length of unemployment in the U.S. is 25 weeks, which means Americans are currently finding themselves unemployed for significantly longer periods of time than Canadians.
And although the unemployment rate in Canada remains high — Statistics Canada reported earlier this month that the July rate was 8.6 per cent — Tal says the headline about the unemployment rate masks a more positive story.
"Rising unemployment in a context of a relatively short duration of unemployment is a reflection of a dynamic labour market where becoming unemployed does not mean remaining unemployed," he writes.
"If sustained, the relatively short duration of unemployment in Canada suggests that the current wave of personal bankruptcies will be short-lived."
Tal writes that the average length of unemployment is the longest in Quebec at 18 weeks, followed by Ontario at 17 weeks, while it is shortest in Alberta at 11 weeks.
He says the average of length of unemployment has an impact on a personal and a national level. The financial consequences of being unemployed are less significant if a person knows that he or she will be able to find work in a relatively short period of time.
On a national level, Tal says, "long-term unemployment affects the confidence and morale of job seekers, results in skill atrophy, alters job search patterns and impacts employers' screening mechanisms."
It also contributes to lost income and lower consumer confidence.
The report says there are one million Canadians who have been unemployed for less than three months, a number that represents about two-thirds of total unemployment in Canada and about six per cent of the labour force.
Meanwhile, there are about 250,000 Canadians who have been unemployed for more than six months, a number close to 15 per cent of total unemployment in Canada. According to Tal, the number is 30 per cent lower than the rate recorded at an equivalent stage of the recession of the early 1990s.
Tal notes the recovery of the 1990s was a jobless recovery — one in which the return of economic growth is not accompanied by a similar rise in employment. He says "there is little doubt" that long-term unemployment will grow in Canada over the next year, but "the fact that the starting point is comparatively very low is encouraging."
He says the newly unemployed are more likely to find a job or start their own business after this recession than they were during the 1990s.
"This bodes well for a more normal job market recovery as opposed to the jobless recovery that followed the 1991 recession."
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