Last week, the national average price of gas crossed the $1 level for the first time this year. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)

With oil prices slated to remain stable, consumers can be assured that the cost of gas this summer won't approach last year's record highs, says Canada's national energy regulator.

The National Energy Board released its outlook for the summer Thursday, predicting U.S. crude oil prices of between $50 and $60 US a barrel.

"The current economic situation, combined with the high inventories of both oil and natural gas, will continue to put downward pressure on energy prices heading into summer," the NEB said in a release.

'Canadians will find that the price of gas will not go as high as it did last summer.'—Gaétan Caron, NEB

The NEB cautioned that uncertainties remain, and that the price of oil could be pushed up by production cuts mandated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or unexpected spikes in demand.

But after meeting in Vienna on Thursday, the 12 members of the oil cartel said they intend to maintain production levels at their current rate.

"Canadians will find that the price of gas will not go as high as it did last summer," said NEB chair Gaétan Caron.

Prices cross dollar threshold

In Canada, average gas prices hit $1.36 last July as crude oil hit a record high of $147 US per barrel, according to Calgary-based consulting firm MJ Ervin. Then the global economic downturn took hold and Canadian prices cratered to an average of 74.9 cents a litre in December.

Prices have since begun to inch up, reaching an average of 88.8 cents a litre in April. And according to MJ Ervin's figures, the average price of gas crossed the $1 level for the first time last week.

But the NEB forecast underlines what most market watchers have suggested — there won't be the same spike in prices in 2009 that occurred a year ago. Demand for oil remains sluggish. The Paris-based International Energy Agency is forecasting a three per cent drop in global oil consumption in 2009.

OPEC predicts global oil demand will drop two per cent this year, despite talk of economic recovery in China and hints of the return of some growth to North America sometime in the next few months.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was up 13 cents Thursday at $63.58 US a barrel after earlier getting as high as $63.93.

The NEB also predicts there will be an adequate supply of electricity for consumers over the summer, citing expanded transmission capacity in Ontario and Quebec, and between New Brunswick and the United States.

The regulator suggests natural gas prices will average between $3.20 US and $4.20 per thousand cubic feet.

The charts below illustrate how gas and oil prices have fluctuated since January 2008. For each month, we took the average national price of a litre of gasoline and compared it to the cost of a barrel of oil.

The first chart breaks down monthly changes in the cost of each component of a litre of gasoline.

The second chart tracks the percentage change in the average national price of a litre of gasoline and a barrel of oil.