The dollar closed above 93 cents US on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada signalled that inflation pressures may lead to higher interest rates sooner rather than later.

As expected, the central bank kept its key overnight rate steady at 4.25 per cent, where it has been since May 2006.

But economists were more interested in the tone of the statement that accompanied the decision. This time, that statement was unequivocally hawkish. 

The Bank of Canada said that inflation and economic growth are running ahead of projections released in April.

The bank said the economy likely grew at an annual rate of 3.5 per cent in the first three months of the year — a full percentage point above its April estimate.

The core inflation rate — which excludes volatile items such as gasoline, and fresh fruit and vegetables — surged to a four-year high of 2.5 per cent last month.

"On balance, the bank judges that there is an increased risk that future inflation will persist above the two per cent inflation target and that some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target," the bank said.

The result of that statement was a quick spike in the Canadian dollar on foreign exchange markets. The loonie closed up 0.58 of a cent at 93.15 cents US — its highest close since September 1977. During intraday trading, the dollar went as high as 93.36 cents US, according to Bank of Canada figures.

The central bank did note in its April report that the dollar has risen "appreciably above the range assumed, but made no mention of whether that was something it should be concerned about.

Market expects July rate hike

Many analysts said rate hikes could begin as early as July.

"This statement blows open the door to what we believe will be two 25-basis-point [quarter of a percentage point] increases in the overnight rate starting at the bank's next fixed announcement date on July 10," said TD Bank economist David Tulk in a note.

BMO Capital Markets noted that the Bank of Canada's reference to the possibility of a "near term" hike has, in the past, meant rate increases soon followed.

"The [central] bank does not make idle threats," said BMO senior economist Doug Porter. "Accordingly, we now expect the bank to carry through on its tough talk with a pair of 25 basis point rate hikes, probably in July and September."

RBC economists also expect a rate hike in July and another later in the year.

The Canadian Labour Congress considers the high dollar the biggest reason why 250,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared since 2002.

Its executive council released a statement Tuesday that criticized the central bank for "sending the wrong signal to the financial markets" by signalling that interest rates will likely head higher.

"The Bank of Canada should have said that the Canadian dollar is trading at too high a level and that interest rates will be cut if it does not fall," the CLC said.