Growing cellphone-only crowd not yet a problem for pollsters
Last Updated: Friday, October 27, 2006 | 8:41 AM ET
The Associated Press
Related
Internal Links
The cellphone-only crowd is not yet large enough and their views not different enough to affect the accuracy of traditional political polling, a new study suggests.
Not yet, anyway.
The U.S. report, based on polling by the Pew Research Center and The Associated Press, reaffirmed that those with only a cellphone tend to be younger, less affluent, more likely to be male and more likely to be minorities.
But when the responses to a series of political questions from those with only cellphones were blended in with the rest of those reached on traditional landlines, results were not affected.
Very small differences in the results virtually disappear when the cellphone sample is blended together, and weighted to match the demographics of the U.S. population.
These results are consistent with an AP-Pew poll done earlier this year and other surveys.
About one in 10 adults in the United States have only a cellphone, based on projections of growth from research, including that done by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Research done during the CDC's National Health Interview Survey suggests the number of cellphone-only households has been growing by about one percentage point every six months over the last few years.
In Canada, there were 16.6 million cellphone subscribers by the end of 2005, Statistics Canada reported. The federal agency said it has observed a growing trend that's seen many Canadians replacing their traditional home telephones with cellphones.
The growth of the cellphone-only group has raised concerns among survey researchers that it would render obsolete the most commonly used polling method of contacting a random sample of the public on traditional landline phones.
Growth of the cellphone-only group may eventually reduce their differences from the overall population, said Scott Keeter, a survey researcher at Pew.
The biggest differences found between landline phone users and cellphone only users involved their levels of political engagement.
Just 49 per cent of the cell-only users in the U.S. were registered voters, while 78 per cent of those in the landline sample were registered voters. That's another reason the cellphone only group has a minimal effect on political polling.
The study was based on a poll of 2,004 adults, including 1,804 with traditional landlines and 200 with only cellphones. The registered voter sample included 1,503 registered voters with landlines and 97 registered voters with only cellphones.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 21 to Oct. 4 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points for both samples, adults and registered voters.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- B.C. police shooting video sparks calls for new probe
- Amateur video of the shooting of a mentally ill Vancouver man five years ago has prompted calls for B.C.'s police complaint commissioner and Crown prosecutors to take another look at the case. more »
- 'Engine shutdown' forced Air Canada jet to land
- A Japan-bound Air Canada Boeing 777 made an emergency landing at Toronto's Pearson airport on Monday, after one of its engines failed. more »
- CP Rail union, Tories battle over collective bargaining
- The federal Conservatives are defending their plan to force striking Canadian Pacific Railway employees back to work as a way to keep the economy on track, while the union representing 4,800 workers says their collective bargaining rights are under attack. more »
- Syrian children were executed, UN says
- The UN human rights office says the global body's investigators have concluded that children were among almost 90 people summarily executed in the Syrian area of Houla on Friday. more »
- Evolution skeptics will soon be silenced by science: Richard Leakey
- 'Engine shutdown' forced Air Canada jet to land
- Richard Branson suggests naked kitesurfing to premier
- RCMP commissioner pledges to rid force of 'bad apples'
- Man, woman shot dead in Burnaby restaurant
- Thunder Bay flooding causes state of emergency
- Newly discovered malware most lethal cyberweapon to date
- 7 mutilated cats found in Vancouver suburb
- Coast guard cuts prompt formal B.C. complaint
