If Obama wins, thank Howard Dean
Comments (15)
Monday, November 3, 2008 | 02:14 PM ET
By Henry Champ
A couple of years ago, I was covering a story near Shreveport, Louisiana.
Driving back to the motel in the evening, I caught a radio broadcast from one of those super-stations out of Tennessee. Two right-wing hosts were interviewing Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont and a Democratic presidential candidate in 2004.
Dean had just been named chairman of the Democratic party and was in Tennessee opening offices and hiring staff for what he called his "fifty-state strategy."
For Dean, that meant fighting for votes in every county, every state in every election, a break from the traditional Democratic effort of husbanding money and resources for races the party felt it could win or were very close. To Dean that was defensive and short-sighted.
He was in Tennessee looking for young potential candidates. Men and women who could run for state and local office and in the future run nationally for House and Senate seats.
His radio hosts were having none of this plan and ridiculed his efforts, just as many establishment Democrats had.
Paul Begala, a former Clinton aide, scoffed at the strategy, saying it amounted to "just hiring a bunch of staff people to wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their noses."
Undeterred, Dean doggedly travelled the country, reorganizing state committees from the bottom up, hunting for bright new faces and providing expertise and funds for voter registration and candidate recruitment.
The first test of Dean's strategy came in 2006.
The internet strategy
In that contest, Democrats won an historic off-year victory, gaining control of both the House and Senate nationally. There were also victories in races for governor and in state legislatures.
The party also made some pick-ups in places where Democrats previously did poorly. Even in losing races, the Democratic share of the vote rose substantially.
Critics still said money was being wasted. They argued that the victories of 2006 owed more to the disastrous policies of the Bush administration, particularly the war in Iraq, than to Dean's efforts.
But two important Democrats did pay attention: Barack Obama and a political operative from Chicago, David Axelrod.
In his failed effort for the Democratic nomination, Dean had proved to be a master of the internet. He had gathered a huge list of non-traditionial supporters from around the country. These supporters sent small amounts to Dean's campaign, but there proved to be many thousands of them and so his war chest grew.
Obama and Axelrod, working under the radar, copied the Dean strategy. By the time the Democratic primary was underway, they had a supporter list of 470,000 names and an average donation of $100.
Just as important, these supporters came from all over the country, from the so-called red states that seemed almost certain to be Republican in the general election but were in play for the primaries.
Obama's primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, ran the traditional Democratic campaign, relying on big donors while concentrating on the big states and the support of Democratic leaders.
She made two big mistakes: misunderstanding the strength of caucus states, where Obama's supporters were lurking, allowing him to sweep every one of them; and choosing to emphasize experience over Obama's call for change.
The internet supporters of Obama, much younger than Clinton's support base and more numerous, responded to Obama's call of "Yes, we can!"
Bags of money
Clinton's team woke up to the challenge but by the time it did it was too late and Obama coasted to victory in the last weeks.
He also had a bag full of money, tonnes of it.
Throughout the summer, he set fundraising record after record, as his internet strategy pulled in the cash in small donations.
In September, he topped out at $150 million in a single month. His donors were not strapped, they were not over the federally-mandated limits. Obama was able to funnel money to other Democrats, strengthening the party tickets.
Dean's model of fighting everywhere worked against the Republican John McCain as well. If you look at the state polls for Monday, the day before voting day, McCain has not succeeded in leading in a single state that was won by the 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.
On the other hand, Obama has the lead in eight states that President George W. Bush won in the last election. They are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa, which offer a total of 101 electoral college votes, almost a fifth of the total.
He is also within the margin of error in Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, Montana and (McCain's home state) Arizona.
Tip of the hat
I won't argue with anyone who offers other complementary reasons for Obama's success. He is an intelligent, attractive candidate. The failures of the Bush administration have been obviously harmful to the Republican cause.
Nor am I saying in advance that Obama will win this election. McCain is narrowing the gap and polls have been wrong before.
But if, as it seems likely, Obama becomes the next president of the United States, Howard Dean should get a lion's share of the credit. At least from me.
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About the Author
Henry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.
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Comments (15)
Ken Swan
Winnipeg
Dean is a Clinton hater. Maybe for good personal reasons. However, Obama can also thank Dean for failing to investigate the allegations of vote fraud in Iowa reported by Kucinich and Clinton during the caucuses, as well as in Texas reported by Clinton.
Oh, and how about disallowing primaries in Michigan and Florida, then restoring them to Obama's advantage? How does he get delegates he hadn't won.
This game was fixed.
Posted November 5, 2008 09:11 PM
John Zikopoulos
Bellevillentario
1955-2008
“Rosa sat, so Martin could walk
Martin walked, so Obama could run
Obama is running, so our children can fly…”
Posted November 5, 2008 08:21 PM
Nick Ward
montreal
Mr. Champ,
You have been a dogged critic of President-elect Obama, which is fair enough. Your editorials over the past 10 months have pounced on any news that backed your, dare I say, "old school" approach to politics and journalism. The world hasn't stopped spinning on its axis, politics is still politics and no doubt, Mr. Dean deserves a tip of the hat for his work in re-building the Democratic Party after the horrific showing in '04. If you have been holding this perspective as a counter-weight to the media swoonfest over Obama, kudos. If not, maybe some re-calculations are in order.
Posted November 5, 2008 04:30 PM
Grammar George
AB
(off topic)
Russ, few words in our language are as misused as complimentary vs complementary. The author's use of complementary in the article was correct, and it makes much more sense than complimentary.
Posted November 5, 2008 04:15 PM
David Schultz
Montreal
There are lessons here for Canadian parties and leaders, too - some of which the successful parties already know.
The Tories have long had the broadest small-donor base of any party, and a "10 province/308 riding strategy" is what propelled Harper to victory in 2006.
Remember his summer bbq tour in 2005, which he was ridiculed for by the press at the time? He was going to every corner of Quebec, -Beauce, Gaspesie, Saguenay, Quebec City region- and other supposedly unwinnable ridings across the country, and it paid off.
The Liberal Party of Canada desperately needs a leader to do the same outside Toronto and Montreal if they are to become a truly national party again; they have been an non-entity in the West for a generation, and small donations are now the only kind allowed by law.
Although the NDP didn't make the gains hoped for this election, they picked up a seat in Edmonton and hung onto the one in Montreal, and made gains in number of votes in, I think, pretty much every province (and notably now seem to have lock on Hamilton).
Harper and Layton get it. Do any of the Liberal leadreship contenders? I doubt it; it seems to be the same old GTA/MTL club that's interested in running right now.
Posted November 5, 2008 12:02 PM
Russell Collier in Quick, BC
Minor typo for your editors - complimentary is actually complementary - there's an 'e' not an 'i' in the word. You don't need to publish this comment.
russ.
full disclosure is the motto here...we publish and I blame the editors....h
Posted November 4, 2008 04:51 PM
Amin
A slow nickle beats a fast dime.
Posted November 4, 2008 03:27 PM
Brian of Van
Deans 50 State Strategy, Obama and his team understood and Hillary and her did not understand. That could bring aabout the type of win tonight that could put the Democrats in a postion to hold the President's Office . with more then 55 Sentors and larger and more meaningful lead in Congress. What Obama and Democrats lead remains to be seen but a need the end of Irau War and address health care concerns for all Americans will likely be high on the list. Brian
Posted November 4, 2008 02:42 PM
Brenda
Calgary
Happy for Obama (history-making can be painful) - don't care about McCain - dislike Hillary - feel sorry for W (I remember 9/11 when everyone screamed for him to do something - Katrina debacle was not his fault) - lol U.S.A. - the world is coming....
Brenda
Posted November 4, 2008 02:23 PM
Adam Williamson
"I won't argue with anyone who offers other complimentary reasons for Obama's success."
That should be "complementary".
Posted November 4, 2008 01:52 PM
Ken
Seoul
Thanks, Henry! Excellent insight!
Posted November 4, 2008 11:18 AM
Joe Egerszegi
Toronto
I have a friend who was so successful in his campaign to be MP for his riding, that those running against him usually lost their deposit.
A deposit is required for anyone wishing to run in an election, and in order to keep frivolous candidates from registering, they are required to attain a certain minimum number of votes. 'Losing your deposit' is another way of saying 'you were completely unsuccessful.'
What was his secret? He made a point to visit EVERY SINGLE HOUSEHOLD
Posted November 4, 2008 09:56 AM
Nathan Boivin
Ottawa
All or nothing! Every vote counts, whether it contributes directly to a successful election of a candidate or or to their momentum, we must never take a vote for granted.
Posted November 3, 2008 10:19 PM
Steven Vallarsa
In the eight years I've lived here, I have never seen so many Democratic election signs out in this traditionally conservative western side of the state of Michigan. Even the local Republican congressman has signs out, something I haven't seen in the last four election cycles (congressmen have to run every two years). While I think his seat is safe (he's anti-abortion, don't you know), and that McCain will win the popular vote on this side of the state (but lose the state as a whole since the more populous eastern side is heavily Democratic), I believe Obama will pull in more local votes than Gore or Kerry were able to in the past.
Posted November 3, 2008 08:39 PM
Dwight Williams
Ottawa
The logic of the "50 State Strategy" and its history makes sense to me.
Posted November 3, 2008 03:14 PM