Washington File

I guess white, rich America came to their senses Russell!! What an amazingly profound chapter in the history books we witnessed last night!

From the beginning it was pretty clear (to me anyway) that a war weary electorate facing an economic down turn would most certainly reject the Republican would-be successor to George W no matter who it turned out to be.

I remember seeing McCain a few times on late-night talk shows and thinking that here is the obvious Republican choice for 2008. He was charming, likeable, funny when he had his chance, and probably three times as smart as GW! What happened? He became desperate as the democratic machine picked up steam over the summer. He found Palin and then the two of them focussed on attacking Obama while middle-aged voters watched their savings and retirement funds shrink as never before.

Had he found a more suitable female running-mate from a populous key state such as Ohio, and focussed on his own strengths instead of Obama's personal associations, his campaign would have had a reasonable chance. Instead, he will probably be remembered as the most disappointing presidential candidate that the Republican Party will ever know.

The Republican party is in such shambles. I dont think we are going to hear from them in a long tme.

I almost want McCain to win: I worry that an Obama presidency will allow Americans to slip into compacency again.

Obama is just going to delay the pain.

KMC, Down here the people who "own" the voting machines are not the politicains running the parties as you seem to assume. They are owned by the county that runs the election. But my point to Henry was that stories about voter fraud usually have Rebublican villians because his network like nearly all the others (Fox excluded) have made the election of Democrats an agenda item.

To: Jerry in Seattle
I don't know what the statistics are vis a vis Republican versus Democrat "rigged" elections, but both Kennedy and Johnson were
products of "fixed" elections. I suspect, both sides, given the chance, would be quite happy to benefit from vote rigging. Lately, however, with the introduction of electronic voting machines, it would appear that the owners of these machines tend to favour the Republicans. So, the alleged "voter fraud" may have more to do with the people who run the voting machines, rather than the political parties themselves.

Wow. Spending $500 Million to get a job which pays $400,000 per year.

Following the Republican Convention and selection of his running mate, John McCain received a huge bounce in the polls and had a real opportunity to seize this election. Yet, in the midst of a financial crisis, all he had to offer were tired, bitter attacks on Obama's character, while offering no answers of any substance to the nation's economic woes. And, given his close ties to Bush, no credibility to speak on the topic.

Like James Carville told President Clinton in 1992: "It's the economy, stupid." The American people want answers, not name-calling. For choosing to persue the latter, John McCain will suffer the electoral fate he deserves.

What's in a name? I'm astonished that a "conservative" Canadian might feel threatened by a supposedly "liberal" Democrat in the White House. Will such an outcome have any tangible bearing on your life? Why should the outcome of the American election be like some sporting event where the home team is losing? Tags like conservative, liberal, socialist, right wing, left wing should be piled on the bonfire of misconceptions. Were the Chretien Liberals "liberal"? Were the Joe Clarke PC's "conservative"? Opinions vary. I just hope that the American election is conducted fairly and that the software running the electronic voting process hasn't been fixed to skew the results.

The United States still uses voting machines that invite fraud. There is no audit. There is no seal. Most are manufactured by Christian Identity members dedicated to replacing the US democracy with a theocracy.
There is no inspection. The software is proprietary. With those conditions even a first year programmer could win the election by whatever amount she wanted for whomever for whomever she wanted.

Squeaker elections statistically should be extremely rare. The very fact they are so frequent is evidence of wide spread vote fraud.

All it will take for McCain to win is tremendous chutzpah.

If Obama were not so naive, he should have spend 1/3 of his budget getting rid of these crooked machines.

Doug,

Ugh. Condolezza Rice is an example of nothing to which decent people would aspire. Her skin colour is irrelevant. If you insist on a racial reference, she is proof that bad apples come in all varieties.

It is most certainly an insult to Obama to be mentioned on the same page as her.

"Why is it the vast majority of voting irregularities I am hearing about...are in favor of Republicans?"

Gee, there's a tough question. Henry, do you want to take this one? You work for CBC I believe.

So many comments...so few from the right. The liberal/left leaning candidate will be more protectionist which would only compound Ontario's job woes (and BC lumber exports). Why are so many Canadians cheering for the one most likely to hurt us financially? Or is it just CBC viewers?

Funny how people belIeve only what the media tells you about polls. Personally I don't think media can predict s*&t.

And what would give any Canuck the right to feel bad if the US elects McCain? We just elected the very epitome of corporate mentality in Stephen (George W. with a maple leaf) Harper!

America has come a very long way since the bad old days of segregation.African-Americans are not refused service at stores or ride in the back of the bus anymore.

Colin Powell, Condolezza Rice are 2 prime examples of how far blacks have come. We dont give our white American neighbors much credit. Most dont care if Obama is black or white at all, right now all they care about is if they will still have a job to go to tomorrow or if they will face foreclosure on their homes.

I think most are worried mainly about the sad state of the US economy than the skin color of a person who is running for President. So please give our southern neighbors some credit for in the end we all must remember that this is their country and we must accept the decision that they will make on November 4

If Obama wins it will be a great day for the United States.

If McCain wins,many including myself will be very disappointed however America is a very strong and powerful democracy and she will survive as she has done for over 230 years.

Why is it the vast majority of voting 'irregularities' I am hearing about in the advance polling are in favor of the Republicans?

I do know this. If the Republicans try to steal a third election, there will be civil war in the US. They can count on it.

Russell, I don't think that you are giving our American neighbors a lot of credit by saying they'd rather see Obama dead than be President. It seems to me that the only thing McCain has to offer the USA is the fact that he is white (if you even consider that an offering) and it is those good ol' boys that you refer to, that do; and thus, are likely his strongest supporters. I am not so naive as to think that skin color is no longer an issue for anyone, but I do have to believe that the greater part of America has come to see people for who they are beneath any given exterior. Obama is so clearly what the Americans need right now, and I am confident that they know it. If however, on November 4th, the USA elects McCain for President, I will be sorely disappointed in our neighbors.

It is so engaging to see our neighbors to our north so engaged in our political process. Althought I do understand that the entire world is watching. Too bad some of the americans don't see things the way that you guys do. You seem considerably smarter than most americans. I live in Missouri, one of the so called "swing states". There were 2 rallies on Saturday for Obama that packed in more that 200,000 people. I know this to be true because I'm a volunteer for the Obama campaign. On the following Monday, McCain had a rally in Missouri the following Monday and had less than 1,000 people show. So I don't know how much of a swing state Missouri really is but if we used the rallies as a gauge, then I would say that Missouri will be going for Obama, thank God.

People keep saying "it's over." The election is still two weeks away, and two weeks is a long time in politics.

Isn't it amazing that Americans still tolerate the use of voting machines after the last two "elections"???

The day Canada loses paper ballots is the day I stop voting and start packing.

This is the first article I've read that explains clearly where the candidates sit in relation to the electoral system. Very interesting. I'm so glad the rage-ready Republican is going to lose.

I'd really hate to be a Republican right now. Between the economy and election, I'd steer clear of all media outlets. It seems as though we're headed towards massive wins in Congress as well. My fear is a repeat of 1994, the last time Democrats controlled the White House and Congress. At least they were able to set the groundwork for the budget surpluses in '98, '99 & '00 (which Mr "We can cut taxes and balance the budget" blew to high heaven) and passed some good legislation like the Family Medical Leave Act before Americans took enough stupid pills to give Pres Clinton an insanely stupid Congress (Gingrich & Co) to contend with. Let's hope that this isn't the same case again of one step forward, two steps back.

To Stan: Republicans are always crying voter fraud, yet haven't been able to prove one case in decades. The fact is that they're trying to make it harder for people to vote knowing it will give them a greater advantage.

After 8 years of extremist foreign policy and ruinous economic policies under George W., US voters know they have only two choices, either Obama or collapse like the USSR - after its failed war in Afghanistan and economic ruin.

President Obama will then have to learn to distinguish between the government systems in China and the Russian Federation.

During debate one he said those two countries do not have democracies. He is correct about China. It is a dictatorship. But Russia has had democratic elections for the past two decades.

Also, perhaps Obama should realize that the U.S. is not a true democracy compared with both China and Russia.

China and Russia do not fingerprint and take mug shots of all people entering their territory. Yet both China and Russia have reported terrorist attacks inside their territories, such as the Moscow theatre and school attacks.

The U.S.fingerprints and takes mug shots of everyone entering the U.S. except for the citizens of 27 countries, out the the more than 200 countries in the world.

By this measure of freedom versus police state activity, the U.S. is not a democracy but both China and Russia are democracies.

In Estonia people know the difference between dictatorship and democracy. The U.S. leadership should learn the same thing and return to the path of democracy that the U.S. abandoned under George W.

the sad truth is that winner in this mudslinging festival will not be able to deliver on their promises. the economic reality will mean that either candidate will have to deal with the economy and not their great sounding plans. Obama looks and sound better and is a real change for america but he can't deliver when big money gets their bailout and the rest of the country pays the bill for these scumbags. a real change would be if the greed in america made way for some reclaimation of ''we the people''. the rich don't want change they want a fool to do their bidding. i hope Obama isn't a fool of a different colour but is the kind of once in a lifetime president that comes along so rarely. god bless and protect him. some redneck bigot is out there ready to kill a black man for being president. americans always kill their best. i fear it will happen with this brave man.

McCain was probably dreaming when he decided to pick Palin as his running mate,the only good thing she could bring to the ticket is that she could sit on her porch and watch if the Russians are coming,doubt if she's smart enough to do that.

I continue to be amazed at the seeming lead Obama maintains, and at the pedictions that put him in the Oval Office come November. Don't get me wrong. After seeing our country slide farther into the fundamentalist extreme right mythology in our own election, I'd be very, very pleased to see a Democrat shift the USA's direction fundamentally.

However, despite the millions of very good people living just south of us, I still cannot believe that white, rich America will ever allow a black man to become their president. They'd rather see him dead.

Seeing white America deal with Obama in the White House would be something akin to watching America deposing South American leftist regimes because they could not tolerate anyone else in the manger with them.

I have met too many Republican "good ol' boys" who still refer to black Americans as "nigras", and see nothing wrong with using the term. I want Obama to win, but I fear the consequences. White America still cannot live with its black neighbours.

I'm glad to see someone doing an analysis based on electoral college votes rather than polls. In the Canadian and American elections I see even authoritative sites like the CBC and the BBC refering to polls when all that matters in Canada is ridings won and in the U.S., states won. The number of votes isn't relevant; it's how they are distributed.

Jerry,

Exit polling showed that Perot voters actually split evenly between Bush and Clinton as their second choices.

Also, in the few states where Perot got enough votes so that Perot + Bush > Clinton, Clinton would still have carried the electoral college even if all Perot voters went to Bush.

1992 was a genuine Clinton landslide. He whupped George H Bush badly. Perot was a distraction, siphoning enough votes to keep Clinton under 50% but make no mistake, Clinton would have won that election easily without Perot in the race.

I know this is old history, but this is a zombie myth of the right that won't die. It is how they deligitimize Clinton's massive victory, repeated in 1996.

"...a victory like that of Bill Clinton" Poor analysis JP. In 1992 Clinton won with only 43% of the vote. You forgot that in 92 Ross Perot peeled off Republican votes.

I can understand the stupidity of John McCain, but he has gone beyond rationalization. He has to get over his war heroism for one thing. He did not play a role in ending the Vietnam war, nor is he is a position to end the Iraqi occupation. And now he plays dumb baseball tactics, accusing the only hope that the US have of reconciling with the rest of the world. Accusing Obama of playing both sides of the ball-what relevance does this have on the Presidential election. And what's even more foolish is that the American people believe this affects a person's character!!!

Wow, I went to school in the US and back then they were stupid, now it's getting to the point of being ridiculous.

Obama gives the youth of America hope, McCain gives them hopelessness and mortality should either one succeed to the Presidency.

Have fun my brethern from the south of 49.

Barring massive voter machine or voter registration fraud, which certainly could happen, we should be looking at a victory roughly like the two won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

I hear now that McCain is dropping normally Republican Colorado and going after moderately Democratic Pennsylvania, where a Republican hasn't won since W's father narrowly carried the state against Michael Dukakis. Has he taken leave of his senses? Does he seriously believe he can overcome a 12-point lead in a state whose economy has been battered worse than most?

Bush was an idiot, to be sure, but at least he kept his campaign on message strategically and tactically. It was clear where his targets were. McCain is all over the map, both in terms of his strategy and his election tactics. One day he is going after Colorado, the next, after Missouri, and now Pennsylvania.

I guess all of this shouldn't be too surprising if you compare the two candidates. Obama is the best and the brightest--editor of the Harvard Law Review. If McCain had even applied to Harvard Law the admissions department would have died laughing. He graduated in the bottom 1% of his Naval Academy class.

Nor is that all. Obama chose the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee as his running-mate, not Fulbright, to be sure, but a man who sits where Fulbright once sat. McCain chose a woman who considers a weekend visit to Seattle a foreign tour. Obama's view is that we should engage other countries. McCain's is that we should bomb the bejesus out of them. Obama's view is that the campaign should address the issues of greatest importance to the American people. McCain's is that it should avoid discussing those issues, using any distraction necessary to do so, from racial smears to outright lies.

The wonder is that McCain enters the homestretch of the campaign within 20 points.

JP

With 18 days to go, many things could intercede to bring about a victory for Senator McCain. With "Joe the Plumber" and interjecting "Socialism" into the discourse, many of the hardcore base who dislike McCain will come out to help Sarah Palin fight for their cause. It is probable that the election may be decided by a hair(Ohio) as it was in 2004 or arbitrarily by the courts(as in 2000) courtesy of an incumbent Republican president. Guess who that would favour.

CNN polls show that 40% of Americans have some degree of racist leanings. Maybe McCain is going to go down in flames and be remembered as one of the most disgusting presidential candidates in US history when he brings up the Rev. Wright issue, that will certainly destablize the smooth Obama message. Until this election is won, I'm holding my breath.

I've just heard Joe the Plumber announced he is going to vote Obama.
This is a crazy election. One for the history books.

JL has it partially correct. When polled many people respond with the answer that makes them seem NOT racist. Some are racist but some are afraid of responding truthfully because people will assume their motives are racist. It is plain old political correctness. Believe it or not some voters have problems with the candidate outside race.

"while his running mate, Joe Biden, trolls the now-friendly waters of Colorado."

Henry, unless you think that Joe Biden is a little monster who sits under bridges waiting to attack billy goats (and I'm sure there are a few Republicans who do), I think you meant "trawl", which is what a fishing boat does with a big net. Regardless, considering that Colorado is in the Rockies, there were probably better figures of speech you could have used..

colin....troll means to fish with a moving line..such as dragging a line behind a moving craft....

nice try....h.

Stan,

Don't fall for that nonsense. ACORN is required to submit all registrations it receives, and it actually flags suspicious ones.

Also, there is no evidence that just because "Mickey Mouse" registered to vote, someone will show up with big ears trying to vote as Mickey. That's a felony and who would be willing to risk prison or a criminal record to cast 1 extra vote for Obama?

The ACORN conspiracy theory is ludicrous. It would require thousands and thousands of people willing to commit felonies voting multiple times and no one leaking it to anyone. Simply not credible.

ACORN is the victim here of some lazy employees who wanted to get paid but didn't want to do the work of actually finding real voters to register. The system is catching these phony registrations and no harm will come of this.

Unless, that is, people like Stan here buy into this stolen election myth. Obama is winning this thing in a walk as Henry outlines. Stan, pollsters aren't calling Mickey Mouse. McCain really is losing, and badly.

The fundamental difference between the Obama and McCain is “brains”

I have to be objective and say that McCain has heart of courage but that’s it. He only knows about war. He is one dimensional and has said on many occasion that he knows nothing about the economy and as time goes by it seem he know little about education and health care. One would also think that he would have gathered up sooner a group of advisors to help him in the areas that he was weakest. Instead he went negative and both may be guilty but his was really negative.

The problem with the negative campaigning was McCain was so “hurt” in 2000 when the Bush campaign accused his wife of being a drug addict when she stole drugs from one of her charities and this was how he lost the nomination. Now he knew how it felt when the attacks went really personal and yet still he sent Palin out there with speaking points to say Obama was palling around with terrorist just because both sat on a committee which was a Reagan (a republican) initiative. There were many other prominent Republicans as well as Democrats that sat on that committee so are they all terrorist?

McCain campaign lacked substance for too long. Yes he is a decorated war hero and he has spent a number of years in Washington but does that make them qualify. Why is it because someone has fewer years in experience but at the same time far more education they are less experienced. Does education have weight? Is that the reason why parents spend so much of there hard earn income on their children so that they can get further quicker. This is a slap in the face of education when you undermine ones accomplishment.

Palin was a bad pick. Yes she stirred up the base but that’s it. The irony is that she was admirer of Obama before she got the VP pick and then she turned into the attack dog. She states she is a Christian and how could she let her self be used has the vessel to promote such hate.

No mention that Obama's ACORN registered Micky Mouse as a voter a few weeks ago.
How many of these newly registered democratic voters actually exist?

The one major factor missing from your analysis is accuracy of the polling process. The factor that favors McCain is whether racists will admit to being so over the phone. The factor that favors Obama is that young people, a strong demographic for him, are typically under-represented in national polling.

While overall it is still hard to see how McCain has better than a 1 in 10 chance of winning, polling inaccuracies in key states could prove to be a crucial element of a surprise election night.