For Democrats, the black vote is the key to power
Comments (18)
Monday, May 12, 2008 | 12:47 PM ET
By Henry Champ
If you talk to the Democratic superdelegates, as I have been doing over these last many weeks, Hillary Clinton lost the presidential nomination when she and her husband Bill failed to hold the black vote.
That constituency is the mother's milk of Democratic politics.
Forget what Clinton said last week, to the dismay of the party brass, that she is better suited than Barack Obama to win over white, blue-collar voters in a presidential contest.
That may well be true. But it is the black vote, with help from Hispanics, that features in almost every national or state-wide Democratic victory in the past, almost 50 years.
Now, this vote is not always dependable. It needs to be nourished. It needs prodding and attention and it may be that with such a prominent African-American as Barack Obama in the race it was never Hillary's to win.
But the Clintons took the black vote for granted. They made some condescending remarks at times and once Obama starting hitting margins of 80 and 90 per cent black support, this contest was essentially over.
A desperate appeal
Clinton is now making a desperate appeal to the party's superdelegates — those 801 party officials and elected representatives who are allowed to vote as they see fit at the Democratic nominating convention in August.
She is trying to convince these delegates that her Democratic opponent cannot win against the Republican nominee John McCain in November because Obama will never gain the support of the blue-collar, less-educated white males who have been among her mainstays.
Clinton won over this group in the primaries by pounding away in the rural communities of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana, swigging shots with beer chasers and extolling the virtues of duck-hunting while promising to address their economic concerns.
She did get their votes but, from what I can tell, the party was not impressed.
White votes are not enough to tip the balance, at least as far as the Democrats are concerned. No Democratic presidential candidate has won a majority of the white vote since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Jimmy Carter, a southerner, scored the highest with 48 per cent of white vote. But he had the benefit of the Richard Nixon Watergate scandal as well as widespread dissatisfaction with the humiliating end to the Vietnam War.
Bill Clinton won the presidency twice — with only 41 per cent of white support.
Here are the statistics that make up superdelegate thinking:
· Blacks make up 12 per cent of registered voters and the vast majority of them are Democrats.
· The white American vote is 79 per cent of the total.
· If Obama can maintain his current level of black support during the presidential election, the Democrats need only split the white vote 50-50 to beat McCain. Add in the Hispanic vote, which tends to break for the Democrats, and Obama wins handily.
Respect the popular vote
Democratic insiders say it means little that Clinton took the white, male blue-collar primary vote from Obama. In the fall, when Republicans begin talking about abortion, when the National Rifle Association runs its gun ads and when conservative talking heads heat up the airwaves, much of this constituency will turn to the Republicans anyway. That is almost a given.
In the last presidential election, the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, a blueblood senator from Boston, was not particularly attractive to black voters. Democratic strategists point to the low black turnout in Ohio alone to say that if there had been an even moderate African-American vote, Kerry would have been president.
Obama, unless white voters desert him in extraordinary numbers, should have an advantage going in. As a result, there does not appear to have been any serious talk among the Democratic superdelegates of using their power to award the nomination to Clinton.
The party is anxious to avoid the serious split with black voters that would occur if the popular advantage that is Obama's is not respected at the convention in Denver.
As it now stands, Obama leads Clinton in the popular vote by 821,000. Even if Clinton is given the controversial Florida and Michigan counts — which few believe will happen — Obama will still be ahead by roughly 200,000 votes. The remaining five primaries cannot significantly change this count.
Clinton cannot at this point catch up to Obama in committed delegates, those convention delegates locked in by their states' primary preferences.
Momentum is his
Obama has a small lead in declared superdelegates and momentum is clearly on his side. What's more, in addition to having won more primaries outright, Obama should do well in the November in the big liberal states such as California and New York that supported Clinton early in the process, Democratic leaders believe.
The party leadership loves the fact that new voters, both newly registered Democrats and independents, have been drawn to the Illinois senator. With a strong black turnout, they foresee Obama victories in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee, all states currently considered in play between the two old-line parties.
Party leaders still wince when Obama sometimes drifts into what many see as a condescending speaking style, such as his observation that small-town, blue-collar whites are "clinging" to their guns and God because of economic insecurity.
And they would like to see more fiery responses to his opponents' attacks. (Even Obama's own advisers think he dawdled when the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy first erupted. They know that Republicans will be ruthless on this in the fall and they feel that Obama needs to confront them head on.)
To quote from a Johnny Cash hit, this fight will be waged, "in the mud, the blood and the beer."
But as far as the more substantive issues are concerned, the Democrats believe they are well positioned on the Iraq war as well as the three main economic issues: Taxes, health care and trade.
McCain has said he will extend the Bush tax cuts and reduce corporate taxes to stimulate business. Obama wants to eliminate tax cuts for those making over $200,000 a year and expand tax credits for the middle class and lower-income families.
McCain's health-care plan depends on industry competition to lower costs, while Obama would provide government guarantees of access and affordability.
McCain is a free-trader. Obama wants to re-write recent trade agreements such as NAFTA, an attractive prospect to blue-collar workers who believe free trade has been the main cause of their job losses and failing communities.
Mix all this up with a heavy dose of "Do you want a third Bush term?" alongside the widespread opposition to the Iraq war, which McCain supports, and the electoral prospects bring joy to the Democratic heart.
The mix already appeals to young, independent and college-educated Obama supporters, both black and white; and it ought to win the support of Clinton's core of seniors and women, many party analysts feel. Though whether it leads blue-collar voters to re-calibrate their thinking in the fall remains to be seen.
But as the primary season finally draws to a close, it is the impressive black vote that has made Obama the expected Democratic nominee.
Without it, Clinton's chances were always limited. And if the Democrats are to be successful in November, it is black voters who will carry them over the top.
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About the Author
Henry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.
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Comments (18)
cyndeewi
Wisconsin
Excellent article. I had no idea about the black until your article. I am voting for Obama. I have been to Black churchs here in Wisconsin and have heard them on TV. I know that Obama does not share the views of Rev. Wright. He is my guy for the GE.
Posted May 26, 2008 04:02 PM
Michael
This is in response to Suzy's comment: "I'm very concerned about Obama's integrity though"
I didnt agree with John from Toronto just like you, but the above comment by you shows that you are clearly biased in your opinion! If anyone's integrity should be doubted, it certainly will be the person who has outrightly told lies, tried on several occasions to decieved Americans - taking them all to be uneducated and stupid, someone who, though not advocating change, has herself changed one hundred times to suit specific situations (I could go on - and am only an outsider observing with no personal reason to support any of the candidates).
Suzy, take out time and think indeptl; if anything, what Barack Obama has shown during the lenght of this campaign, is an ability to lead a productive team, the will to deal with situations head-on, the accountabilty and money-managemnt to use public money judiciously (and yes, here too, i could go on... though am only an outside observer!!)
Think twice, think right, think you children's future!! - Just a sincere advice from an outside observer.
Posted May 23, 2008 10:38 AM
Theresa
I'm a white female over 40 and I'm voting Obama.
So's my husband.
It seems to be based whether you identify yourself as a liberal or a conservative democrat.
The funniest thing is that it has almost nothing to do with whether you ARE a liberal or a conservative democrat, merely whether you are comfortable thinking of yourself as a liberal.
Posted May 23, 2008 03:47 AM
Suzy
I must respond to "John" of Toronto, and his comments accusing women of having "venemous hostility" toward men in this Democratic nomination process. This is just not true. I am a white woman over 40, and voted for Hillary in our primary. I did tons of research on each candidate's website, listened to debates, and made my decision based on that. I believe Hillary has a better health plan, which was a deal-breaker with me. On other areas, they are very similar. I think Hillary is more knowlegable and would make a better President.
My decisions were not based on race or gender. Since it looks like Obama will be the nominee, I will have to vote for him; I can't in good conscience vote for a McCain agenda. I'm very concerned about Obama's integrity though, and it makes me uncomfortable, due to his many questionable associations and his Chicago-backed path to power. However, I am left with no choice but to vote for him. I just hope he does a good job.
Posted May 14, 2008 04:29 AM
sean
Some here dont have a clue , Mr Champ is right on. There is over 40 million blacks in America that can legally VOTE spreading across the different states. Remember come election time.. its not about who carry the popular vote but how many electoral states that you carry.
Remember White voters will battle each other and cancel each other out for their respected parties. Thats where you need the other demographics to be the decide. Last count they are over 45 million hispanics, the only problem many of them dont have legal documents to vote; unlike their Black counterparts who many were born there.. so they dont have a problem going out to VOTE.
To add I think many see Barack as the better candidate and went for him. I think he is in a no win situation... any success by him and race will be call into question. Many and they know who they are.. will never give his ability the credit.
Many have said if Barack was white and carrying Barack's message.. this race would have been over sooner; and he would mop anything in his path to the presidency.
its very sad 2008 and it looks like we are taking steps back. However on the bright side... the young people are telling a different story which holds well for the future.
Posted May 14, 2008 12:20 AM
Sean
Kamloops
It seems Hillary is beating a dead horse now. I wonder why she continues? Maybe she wants to be the Vice-Presidential candidate... for the Repubican ticket.
Posted May 13, 2008 09:03 PM
Dona
Hudson,QC.ca
Dwight of Ottawa, Michaelle Jean is a multi-lingual, very intelligent Canadian who has a very impressive CV. She was also a very competent journalist along with other talents.
You need have have no worry about our very fine Governor-General.
Posted May 13, 2008 08:28 PM
Kulbir Singh Shergill
Calgary
Democratic party had been divided in two wings left (Obama)and right(Clinton).It is a fear that some right wingers can join the Republicans to defeat Obama in the November general election. But Mr.McCain is very weak in personalty and pollicy. Hillry tried her best to beat Mr. Obama on the issue of race, religion and gender. But Obama handles all issues in a professional manner. Further, whole country can be devided in two wings leftist and rightist. Obama needs to stay in the centre to solve the problems of U.S that is facing right now.
Black voters are not the factor in winning the nominations of Mr. Obama. It is the leftist movement in the United Satates that tied togather all races, religions and genders.
Posted May 13, 2008 06:59 PM
Mr Right
Alberta
What a racist thing for this commentator to say. Black vote???
Why do these racist people always assume non-whites always think the same?
I hope the CBC will review this commentary and discipline him.
Posted May 13, 2008 06:18 PM
Robt.
Toronto
Henry,
If the Democrats had a winner take all system for the primaries (like the Republicans) Hillary would be the hands down winner. She has won almost all the big states. Also if the Rev Wright controversy had come out earlier Obama would not be in the lead.
She stands a much better chance of beating McCain.
The Democrats have the black votes locked up with or without Obama. The Hispanics are a different story. Recent Hispanic immigrants are at the lower end of the socio-economic ladder but the subsequent generations have made huge strides. They are not sympathetic to blacks and I think they will support the Republicans.
It will be whites who determine the outcome of the election. McCain will win.
Posted May 13, 2008 11:04 AM
Brian
Vancouver
Clinton lost any chance taking the nomination last week when the votes did not break her way in Indiana. There is no way that any party offical would be able to vote against the candidate that won the popular vote in the United States. Clinton made this election about race not Obama,and when she did not deliver the White Voters in the proprotion needed then her message of Hilary Clinton is the better person to the take the White House in November fell apart.
Hillary Clinton would make a very good President of United State the only problem she did not deliver the votes in a Winner Take All System.
Posted May 13, 2008 10:51 AM
John
Toronto
The conclusion of Mr. Champ is incorrect, and almost certainly disingenuous. What the savage fight of Hillary Clinton has demonstrated is the complete split in democratic politics between men and women. The demographic of women over 40, who have supported Clinton far past the level of rationality, is vastly greater than 100 percent of the African- American demographic. The stunning and venomous hostility of women against men that the campaign of Hillary Clinton has made so explicit is much too sensitive for any media to comment on, hugely more dangerous than any comment on black versus white, and you can be sure Henry Champ knows that in his bones.
Posted May 13, 2008 09:46 AM
Louise A. James
Toronto
Thank you, Henry Champ, for stating the facts. Both Hillary and Bill Clinton won their respective offices (presidency, New York senate seat) because of the African American vote. Hillary's comments last week were just the last throws of desperation. But, it also was the last nail in the coffin for a lot of Black Americans who, despite her campaign's previous attempts at thinly veiled race-baiting, continued to think positively about Clinton. I read hundreds of comments on the CNN message board after she spoke, and the overwhelming majority of people, both White and Black, expressed disappointment.
Ahmed, Black Americans vote in blocks, because of common experiences, particularly with racism. As such, they have many common goals. There's nothing wrong with that. Indeed, given the history of the Black experience in America, voting for a common cause makes a lot of sense. It's also one of the reasons why there are a lot of elected Black politicians in America, and and only a handful in Canada.
The first Black President of the United States will be Barack Obama. Appropriately, and ironically, he is as White as he is Black, is therefore exactly what America needs to finally get over this whole "race" thing.
Posted May 13, 2008 08:14 AM
headstrong
The black vote will be negated by the Republican machine, which will ensure that tens of thousands of legitimate black voters will be disenfranchised in key states, just as in the last 2 elections.
Fraud through manipulation of the Diebold voting machines will take care of the rest, just like before.
Posted May 12, 2008 08:23 PM
Dwight
Ottawa
Ahmed: Don't count on it.
In fact, I'm starting to wonder about Michaelle Jean's future once she's done her tour at Rideau Hall...
Posted May 12, 2008 05:20 PM
Chris
Chicago
Henry, when you say Clinton's comments occasioned the "dismay of the party brass", what are you referring to? I read about her making the statements but I don't remember seeing anything about a reaction from Howard Dean or other party leaders. What are you hearing about that? Although they are doing a good job of appearing pretty neutral, one has to imagine they wish Clinton would go away at this point.
Posted May 12, 2008 03:50 PM
Alex
Edmonton
The Democratic party needs to reconsider the nature of its so-called 'Super Delegates'. If these party insiders contradict the popular vote and decide that Hillary Clinton should be the candidate, I cannot see any other outcome than a mass exodus of the Democratic vote either to the Republican side, or to apathy.
With the way the contest is shaping up, the Super Delegates are mentioned nearly every night on the news. Even if these delegates serve a valuable function, the current primary structure has terrible optics for the party. In a country where democracy is almost a religion rather an a system of governance, to appear undemocratic in the run-up to a presidential election seems foolish at best and suicidal at worst.
Posted May 12, 2008 03:05 PM
Ahmed
Ottawa
Yet, Henry that is what is wrong with all minorities voting in block there in the USA and here in Canada with the Liberals. It is a human nature that you will be taken for granted and that your voice and needs will be dismissed as your money (vote) is already assumed cashed.
That is one reason I believe that the first black president of the USA will be Republican and that is the same reason why, as an African Canadian, I encourage my young children to be open to the options of the conservative party, here in Canada.
Posted May 12, 2008 02:44 PM