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Danger: Falling incumbents

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By Henry Champ

If you are a member of the U.S. Congress, you would be calling the Maryland primary on Tuesday, The Day the Earth Shook.

Not because Barack Obama overcame a double-digit Hillary Clinton lead to win — and win handily with a better than 60 per cent margin of victory. Or because Arizona Senator John McCain virtually sealed the Republican nomination with his gains there.

No, the seismic bump was further down the trenches and it is sending shock waves through the elected folk in Washington: Two long-serving members of the House of Representatives were defeated by ideological activists within their own party.

Of course, this had to happen on the same day that Obama and McCain, at the top of their party's respective tickets, were campaigning for greater party unity.

You must understand that defeat of an incumbent in his or her party's primary is virtually unheard of anymore. For two to go down in the same year happens with about the same regularity as Halley's Comet.

In fact, it has been half Halley's 76-year loop — nearly 30 years — since something like this political nosedive last occurred.

Special interest politics

Maryland is an important barometer in this regard because it and Illinois are among the handful of states to run their presidential primaries at the same time as they select their congressional choices, and the only two so far.

But count on it. More incumbents will fall later this summer.

Generally, incumbents enjoy an enormous advantage in primary races. It usually costs more money than newcomers can afford to get the name-recognition and the volunteers needed to support a competitive bid.

But this year, aided by the fundraising opportunity that the internet provides, party activists representing the more extreme factions are showing up with fat wallets for TV ads and day-to-day campaigning.

They also have another advantage: It was the Iraq War that buried both of Tuesday's losers.

Democrat Albert Wynn, an eight-term congressman, had voted to support President George W. Bush's troop surge in Iraq. Calling him too moderate, progressive fundraisers from groups such as Emily's List, MoveOn.com and national trade unions poured $1.7 million into his opponent's campaign and Wynn was toast.

Moderates on the line

On the Republican side, Wayne Gilchrist is a member of his party's moderate wing and voted last year to set a time line for troop withdrawal from Iraq.

Gilchrist had won nine elections in his Eastern Shore district of small retirement towns, fishing villages and vacation getaways. But that vote brought the conservative Club for Growth and a $600,000 TV campaign to Gilchrist's riding and now he is on the streets.

Since Iraq was a key issue in these two campaigns, the results indicate voters still care about the war and are willing to throw old favourites out because of their approaches to the conflict.

But it may also mean that national activist organizations are wielding their big war chests to affect election races on a much larger scale than in the past.

The formula is simple: Find a member whose vote is contrary to what the organization believes and flood the district with an expensive TV and radio campaign. In Maryland on Tuesday it worked.

Now Gilchrist and Wynn may have had other warts, who knows? After all, these activist groups poured millions into the state and other incumbents survived.

But their defeat does raise a number of questions, among them: Does it matter that an activist group can collect $75 from a little old lady in Idaho and use it to influence a race in Maryland?

Is there anything wrong in picking one issue in an incumbent's record and bringing in outside financing to punish him for it?

Some people, of course, argue that incumbents have greater access to campaign financing and that the entrance of well-heeled interest groups just evens the playing field.

But it does raise questions about whether the extremes on both sides of the congressional aisle are getting control of the hen house.

I can tell you one thing, on Capitol Hill following the Maryland primary, the elected officials and their staff members that I spoke with spent more time talking about Wynn and Gilchrist, than they did about Obama and McCain.

They're scared.

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Comments (11)

Alice in Coldstream

BC

It seems like the "problem" with the Superdelegate democratic rule, is being caused by the previous rule of denoting an arbitrary amount of delegates to win the nomination. Both rules need to be scrapped if one is to restore democracy in the Democratic Party.

Posted February 20, 2008 09:44 PM

Paul Klimstra

While I too question the use of "moderate" and "extreme" in this article, I must also raise a point with cosmo, who wrote, "Have you got a problem with the American people finally getting off the sofa and taking an interest in the affairs of their nation?"

I fail to see how lobbyists and special interest groups can be seen as representing "the American people" when they are generally one issue entities that have nothing but self-interest at heart.

I would say that the only true way the American people can be counted is through their votes. Anything before or after that is nothing but spin, and close inspection usually turns up some pretty slimy things, Republican or Democrat, liberal or conservative.

Posted February 19, 2008 09:05 AM

Mike Timonin

I think this highlights a fallacy which prevailed in the last general election - a (D) after your name does not necessarily mean that you won't vote as if you had an (R) after your name. There was a big push to vote Republicans out and Democrats in, but not a lot of discussion of how the Democrats being voted in really differed from the Republicans being voted out. Perhaps it indicates that the US is ready for a viable 3rd party?

Posted February 16, 2008 03:53 PM

bemused

California

Anti-war sentiment IS the mainstream position in the U.S. George Bush's approval rating is south of 30%. It's about time members of Congress behaved accordingly. Thus I would quarrel with your use of "moderate" and "extreme".

Posted February 16, 2008 06:03 AM

Cugel

Denver

What is this "moderate" versus "extreme" B.S.?

Is it "extreme" to vote the way the overwhelming majority of your constituents want on matters or peace and war? Well over 60% of the American people want an immediate timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and Congress isn't paying attention!

This article reflects infuriating inside-the-beltway mentality that somehow those annoying "little people" are muscling in and insisting on their way instead of politicians listening only to those of us well-bred insiders who really know what's important.

And not making waves when Bush lies us into war and insists on immunity for law-breaking telecoms, that's what all good "moderates" want.

We can all sip our Chablis and agree how awful it is that those barbarians at Moveon.org are interfering again. Won't somebody put them in their place?

Just who do they think they are? Somebody hold my pate while I write an angry blog about how those terrible "extremes" are taking over!

Posted February 15, 2008 11:14 PM

cosmo

usa

"But it does raise questions about whether the extremes on both sides of the congressional aisle are getting control of the hen house."

Henry,

What 'extremes' are you referring to? Have you got a problem with the American people finally getting off the sofa and taking an interest in the affairs of their nation? Al Wynn was out of step with the principles of the Democratic Party. He was a shill for the Bush administration, and an embarassment to his constituency. The Founding Fathers provided us with a remedy for a situation like this-- vote his ass out of Congress.

We should be celebrating our enhanced ability to participate in our democracy via the Internet; it's the best thing to happen since the drafting of the Constitution. If the establishment politicians and entrenched economic interests are running scared, then Hallelujah !

Cosmo, Geraldo and Michael Galloway,

I'm not going to be drawn into an argument over the word "extremes', or whether "extremes" means bad or "moderates" means good.

The point of the column is to highlight the concern, or lack of knowledge, or indeed the fear that most elected officials, particularily those at the federal level have with the changing scene. Two trees fell in the forest and the noise was heard.

The questions I posed are the ones I hear everyday in Washington. The art of Electioneering is changing virtually every hour and very, very few people, including me, know where this is headed.

Even without knowing the net effect of these changes, I'm not troubled.... But a helluva lot of other people are.

Personally a couple of "hallelujahs" are okay by me.

h

Posted February 15, 2008 07:38 PM

Geraldo

Winnipeg

What is so "extreme" about expecting your representative to vote the way 70+% of the people want him to vote?

I am missing something here.

Posted February 15, 2008 05:06 PM

michael galloway

henry champ should really be more careful about throwing around the words "moderate" (with its connotation of "good") and "extreme" (with its connotation of "bad"). like it or not the war is a moral issue, and so to vote safely in the cushy centre does not make you "moderate": it makes you responsible for the lives and sufferings of millions of human beings. to characterize as "extreme" those who want the people making such momentous decisions to actually vote on principle is precisely what's wrong with north american politics today.

Posted February 15, 2008 03:20 PM

Dan D

Toronto

Your last comment warms my heart. Wynn was one of a small number of House Democrats who can be relied upon to always cross the floor and vote with the Republicans on core Democratic issues.

The groups that supported his much more progressive challenger, Donna Edwards did so because Wynn is severely out of step with the voters of his district, who do not support the war, or the bankrupcy bill or the Republican position on domestic wiretapping and on and on.

This certainly wasn't about a single vote and there are many other so-called moderate Democrats who are quite safe simply because they're known to represent much more conservative districts and no one expects them to have Ted Kennedy's voting record.

So if the incumbents are scared, perhaps we'll see less Bush favoured bills pass the Democratic majority house with 199 Republicans and 20 Democrats voting for them.

Voters elected the Democrats to resist George Bush, not endorse everything he asks for.

Yesterday, the House showed the first strong signs of that in a long time when they voted to hold Bolten and Miers in Contempt, and also refused to pass Bush's favoured FISA bill as passed by the senate.

If this primary helped contribute to that result, then it was already a victory.

Posted February 15, 2008 01:58 PM

Dona

Hudson,QC.Canada

Would it be possible to have legislation limiting campaign funds for this paticular situation and a limitation on the number of lobbyists?

Posted February 15, 2008 01:57 PM

Bob Bramwell

The incumbency rate in US politics is incredibly high; I can't remember the numbers, but it is something like 95%. If this situation shakes up the incumbents a bit that would be a Good Thing. Special interest funding is a whole separate can of worms - which does need to be examined!

Posted February 15, 2008 10:02 AM

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Henry ChampHenry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.

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