The prize that Obama offers
Comments (25)
Friday, January 4, 2008 | 10:50 AM ET
By Henry Champ
Make no mistake. Barack Obama's victory in Iowa, in the first of the Democratic presidential showings, is massive.
The keys lie in the exit-poll data that show Obama won a majority among women as well as among independents.
Those are significant numbers. They mean Obama beat Hillary Clinton in her strongest constituency — her own gender. In claiming the largest number of independents, he also proved to the party power brokers that he is capable of winning over the middle ground so essential to a Democratic victory in November.
But perhaps even more important was a third number evident in the exit polls. In a state that one television commentator called, "the whitest American constituency outside Alaska," Obama proved that a black man can win in today's America.
It means that many African-Americans who have been loyal to the Clintons in the past will now have to consider the richness of the prize that Obama offers: The possibility that one of their own can claim the White House is almost certain to drain key support from an important area of Hillary Clinton's campaign.
Choosing change
Iowa voters told exit-pollers that they picked "change" over "experience" when making up their minds. They picked "inspiration" over "competency." Clear references to the arguments made by Obama and Clinton, who was always trying to highlight her past experience, during this campaign.
Obama is gambling that change is the issue in America today and, so far, his gamble is paying off.
He told supporters after his win was confirmed: "You have done what the cynics said could never be done. You have done what New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what this country can do this year. One nation. One people. Our time for change has come."
And one final piece of polling data that may seal the deal for Obama: 70 per cent of all those voting in the Iowa caucuses who were registered Democrats voted for him.
What now?
In the immediate aftermath of the Iowa sounding, many commentators are saying the Clinton era has ended.
That may be premature but the compressed primary schedule that resulted from states jockeying to be at or near the front of the order works against Clinton and John Edwards, the runner-up in Iowa, by a whisker.
They are the only two Democrats now with any real chance of beating Obama. And there is only five days to stop the bleeding.
Edwards, who was John Kerry's vice-presidential partner in 2004, can also argue he fought Iowa on a platform of change. But his campaign is nearly broke.
Clinton has money but must quickly pivot her campaign's message. She started that turnabout with her Iowa thank-you speech by arguing that to achieve "Change" you must have "Experience."
For Edwards and Clinton, who finished with 29.8 and 29.5 per cent of the Iowa vote respectively (compared to Obama's 37.6 per cent showing), a third-place finish in New Hampshire next week will be a death sentence.
And what about the Republicans?
You are right, there was another race.
Former Arkansas governor Michael Huckabee, following a script based on conservative social values, won a solid victory over another former governor, from Massachusetts, Mitt Romney.
It was a strong personal victory for Huckabee's low-budget, under-financed campaign. Five months ago, he was a virtual unknown. But what won for him in conservative Iowa could have much tougher sledding in liberal New Hampshire.
John McCain, who leads the polls in New Hampshire, did not actively campaign in Iowa, nor did the man leading in the Republican polls nationally, Rudy Giuliani. Also, when it comes to New Hampshire, Romney, a neighbouring former governor has clear name recognition.
What Iowa has done for the Republicans, however, is frame their race. Huckabee will be the favourite of the social conservatives in the party. McCain, Romney and Giuliani will duke it out for the leadership of the economic Republicans who want to move the party away from the evangelical base that delivered victory to George W. Bush.
The Obama victory was built, in part, by his strength among independents. Moderate Republicans will argue that their party must therefore shift leftward, toward the mushy middle, to have any hope of keeping the White House.
For Republicans, winning the White house is paramount as few experts believe it will be possible to wrest control of the Senate and House from the Democrats.
That fight for the control of the Republican party's direction will be the headlines over the next many weeks.
Can McCain, the aging Arizona senator and former POW, whose popularity sagged in recent months, hold New Hampshire, where he is now leading, and turn it into a springboard?
Will Giuliani's strategy of waiting for the big urban states to come into play prove successful? Those are the places where his past experience as a big-city mayor will count the most.
These are all delicious stories for the days ahead. But for now the story is the Democrats, where an African-American candidate has all the momentum under his wings — "the Big Mo," as the pros like to say — and is threatening to end the Democratic race much quicker than the experts ever imagined.
What that means is that as soon as Feb. 5, Super-Tuesday, the Democrats may have a new presidential candidate whose name will not be Clinton.
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Henry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.
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Comments (25)
Charlene Smith
Woodstock,Ontario
Further to Obama's story,I was reading an article in the Toronto Star that tells the story of his roots to Africa and the region his family is from.
It also told of Obama's effect on the most lowly of the poor of Africa and how it is inspiring them.
It talks of how someone who's family is very poor can actually inspire a poor person to dream and someday have their dream within their grasp.
That is the connection between Obama and Oprah.
Both are using their"black heritage'to inspire not only black's in North America but also in Africa and other countries.
It also further shows that NO MATTER where your roots,culture or ethnic back ground,you can inspire change in the world,especially when the world is ready for that change.
Posted January 13, 2008 11:17 AM
Charlene Smith
Woodstock,Ontario
It has been mentioned about Obama's drug use and other things that might not look to pretty.
I think all it will do is make him more"real"to people.
It is basically saying,I messed up but I overcame it.
This makes a person more real,true and meaningful to people.
It is saying"I can relate,I understand the problems,I have been there too."
That is part of his appeal to people.
He seems approachable.
People are also underestimating the clout behind Oprah's backing of him.
Not only is she one of the most inflential women in the U.S. but she has made it her intent to reach across to Africa with a school.
If a black man can win the presidency,how does that look to the rest of the world?
Globally this can be the move that changes the way people see each other and maybe change for the good of everybody.
Only time will tell.
Posted January 7, 2008 09:42 AM
John S
Just a little reminder: Presidential elections in America are based on electoral votes and not the nation wide popular vote. The Democrats are still going to have to find a way to win a good sized Red state, whoever they nominate. The Republicans only have to hold their home-ice advantage to keep the White House.
Posted January 7, 2008 02:40 AM
Jim Ozon
Calgary
I echo the comments of many in support of an Obama presidency. Even if he is succesful I don't think he can have a great influence on domestic U.S. policy but the world is hoping that the United States can be turned toward the light in the field of foreign policy. The world community is in deep disgust at the destructive antics of the Bush administration. As someone who is a great admirer of the American people I have to say they have been let down lately and deserve much, much better.
Posted January 6, 2008 01:33 PM
Mina
BC
I have seen no mention of a connection being made between the emergence of strong support for Mr. Obama in the U.S., and the rapid response by the new president of Kenya, stepping forward to promote a Unified government, in what appears to be a positive, cooperative attempt to put a stop to the potential for long term civil war in Kenya.
The president of Pakistan is also showing clear signs of wanting to assist in resolving similar internal political issues in his country.
I suspect that just the possibility of the election to President of the U.S., of the man Barak Obama shows the potential to be, has been enough to defuse the cynical, defensive, knee jerk responses we have developed world-wide, as a means to resolve the stresses of living our lives under the black cloud of impending doom.
I believe the entire world sees in Mr. Obama, the hope of a more equitable and constructive approach to beginning to deal with those with whom we do not agree.
Should Mr. Obama be elected, and should he prove to be the man he now shows the potential for being, the general population of the U.S. will have demonstrated to the world that there is hope for America, and for all the rest of us.
I believe in the Power of One. With his roots so recently in Kenya, is it not possible that Kenyans see him as an example to emulate? And because of his racial blend, might not other non-white members of the world population have a fresh perception of Americans as not entirely racist? And respond accordingly?
Posted January 6, 2008 01:29 PM
Geoffrey Vitale
Qiuebec
If Obama gets elected, which would probably be nice, he 'd better make a very careful choice of vice-president (Edwards would be a pretty good one I think). Remember ... last time they got Johnson
Posted January 6, 2008 11:01 AM
JMW
Victoria
I too cheer the victory of Mr. Obama in Iowa. The U.S. (...and let's not forget we mere mortals here in Canada who depend on American breadcrumbs) has never needed a saint of unification and hope than now.
However, I would just like to point out to cynics, like F.A. in Winnipeg, who claim Obama is not an establishment, well-funded candidate, that a little more attention be paid to the money trail. Obama has money, lot's of it. One of his main financial backers is the Pritzker family from Illinois. They have billions. And they are white. They also happen to be fairly progressive too, which confuses the stereotype, but then the world is not so black and white anymore.
Do not project all of your hopes and dreams on Obama for you will surely be disappointed, as so many of Bill Clinton's first term supporters were. Yes, we'd love a world where money was separated from politics, but we haven't gone through that reformation yet. However, if there was ever a candidate who might move the U.S. (and the Western world) in the right direction, it's Barack Obama. I write that because I feel it in my bones.
Posted January 6, 2008 05:24 AM
F.A.
Winnipeg
There are a lot of rich people in the US and other countries who will do everything in their power to ensure Obama is not elected.
If an investigative journalist (not the usual reporters that parrot information) track the trillions of "Iraq" dollars, they will realize how much is at stake for the elite.
The elite will do anything, even steal the elections - how do you think puppet George made it to the White House?
Posted January 5, 2008 11:48 PM
Phil
Montreal
The other big story is that Ron Paul got 10% of the Republican vote in a state that is generally not favorable to his anti-war Libertarian stance. Will a 3rd or 2nd place finish in New Hampshire be such a big surprise to the CBC or will they continue to ignore him?
But god forbid the CBC report anything about the the only anti-war candidate from either party or cover the phenomenal growth of the Ron Paul revolution with real Conservatives in the United States which undoubtly will spread to Canada with or without fair coverage from the Canadian media. Vegas has odds on Ron Paul (if elected) to beat Hilary Clinton easily. Is Vegas ever wrong? Do the Republicans really plan on winning the next election or passing the war torch to Hilary?
Posted January 5, 2008 01:46 PM
Paul Degen
Congratulations to Mr. Barak Obama. He is a breath of fresh air. Mrs. Clinton has real challenge in Mr. Obama.
I'm afraid that from now on the Clinton campaign will concentrate on heavy negative advertisement and slogans. The crown, so to speak, was hers. Now a new game is afoot.
My guess is Mr. Obama will be the next President of the US of A. The one thing I wish for is the Republicans are soundly defeated in November.
Posted January 5, 2008 01:11 PM
Dona
Hudson,QC.Canada
Obama's win in Iowa was indeed impressive. I hope he can keep the momentum going. If not president then Harold Hotham's suggestion a Clinton-Obama team is the next best hope.
Posted January 5, 2008 12:16 PM
Alice Warnes
Obama, all the way. I look forward to seeing a US president who can write his own speeches, do his own thinking, and more importantly, is willing to talk to the enemy. Regardless of the economic chaos he will inherit, the damage the US has done in the Arab & Muslim nations must be addressed. In turn, those leaders will finally be able to talk with a man they can respect.
Posted January 5, 2008 11:45 AM
Paul
Winnipeg
The Democrats need a candidate who is capable of countering the smear campaign with which the Republicans will "tar and feather" whoever wins the Democratic party's nomination. I don't believe any of the candidates vying for the Democratic nomination are up to this task.
Also, sad as it is, in order to win the presidency in November, the Democrats have to be as good, or better, than the Republicans at the "dirty" political tricks. For the Democrats to win, they have to have a well crafted smear campaign in place which will destroy their Republican rival. The Democrats are not up to this task.
Sadly, in the US (and more and more in Canada) if you do not run a very negative campaign aimed at discrediting and destroying your opponent you will not win. Just look at how Bush won two terms by skillfully crafted negative campaigning which destroyed the credibility of Gore and Kerry in the minds of voters. Sadly the Republicans are masters of the negative campaign. There will be no change in Washington since the Republicans will use their dirty tricks to put keep their party in the White House.
Posted January 5, 2008 08:04 AM
Jeff Wilson
Winnipeg
Change? Good grief! Gimme a break!
Since when has a politician not endlessly spouted the word "change" during an election?
Remember how Dion, during his campaign, and upon becoming the new leader, promised to "change" the Liberal party? Remember?
Well, it's been a year! Notice any "changes" yet? I didn't think so!
Come to think of it: Did Dion, while he was trying to become leader, say EXACTLY how he was going to "change" the Liberal party? Nope, no way, no how! And did the media require him to be specific? Ditto with the: nope, noway, no how!
Meanwhile, Mr. Obama also says that America's "time for change has come." Well, we've all heard that one before, haven't we? But, the problem is: we've never heard EXACTLY how these most important changes - BIG CHANGES - will be made, have we?
So let's hear it! There is PLENTY of time: 10 months till the U.S. presidentil election!!
Let's hear the nitty gritty, because the Devil is in the details. So let's hear the details now so that the Devils can be exorcised sooner rather than later! Because waiting until after you win has never worked before! Has it?
Just ask Stephan Dion!
Oh... I get it! No one wants to get into the details because they don't think our attention spans are long enough! They don't want us to get lost in the details! They don't want to confuse us of the lowly masses... We voters! We TV veiwers!
So it's sound bites and slogans for us all.
Just like before!
Change?
Gimme a break!
P.S. Dear Mr. Champ, You folks in the media could do a lot do break this cycle by forcing the candidates to give specific details when they speak of "change" instead of merely recording their dogma responses and then "moving on!"
DEMAND A SPECIFIC ANSWER TO A SPECIFIC QUESTION!
OK?
Posted January 5, 2008 06:03 AM
ike
Toronto
If Obama can gain grass-roots money, he can make US foreign policy a "Made for America" response to international issues as opposed to current influence of powerful foreign lobbys' in Washington.
Recently,when India wanted exemption from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, it hired expensive "consultants" to lobby (without double-speak, it is called "bribing") politicians. Other governments,such as Isreal even use the US governments own billion-dollar aid packages to steer US policy in the Middle East.
Obama is on the right tract. Clean up campaign financing laws and then see where the results take you.
It may even restore the US as the world most popular superpower.
Posted January 5, 2008 03:11 AM
Steelcity Steve
Hamilton
Obie and Huckie are still easily catchable, no worries man. It's a long and gnarly road to the Oval Office.
But is anyone really surprised by the high turnout of Christian fundamentalists for Huckie? Putting Bush on the throne of the world's most powerful Christian nation for eight years has only whetted their appetites. They may be even more dedicated and committed to their cause this time because they have a former(?) Minister to ensconce in the White House.
Posted January 4, 2008 09:59 PM
Will Friesen
Though it would be nice to see someone apart from a Clinton or a Bush as President of the States, Obama is still a corporate tool like the rest of them. His positions on domestic matters are the exact same as those of Clinton, and we wont see him or any main-stream candidates break free of the corporations that own them and their campaign and their perhaps future presidency. If the American people really want change they need to vote for a Ron Paul or a Dennis Kucinich, otherwise they're just going to get the same-old shtick.
Posted January 4, 2008 06:23 PM
Harold Hotham
I wondered last night if this result was more than just a caucus poll in that, while it clearly signalled Obama, more importantly it highlighted his platform of change.
Considering the current administration's performance and the coziness of the Washington elite with the Clintons, I looked at it as more of a demand for change in the way government does business.
Senator Obama is saying all the right things but does he have the machinery to put it into place?
Remember that the Clintons tried to reform health care and got their fingers burned by the power of big business, a key source of financing. Business in the US has been enjoying some significant tax advantages. Will the Senator be able to wrestle their money toward his campaign?
I think Hillary has the experience to navigate the minefields. My preference would be a Clinton-Obama ticket. Give Senator Obama time to get his feet wet because Washington isnt going to change just because an election was won or lost. He needs this time for seasoning before the Oval office.
Just the observations and opinions of a Canuck on the sidelines.
Posted January 4, 2008 05:37 PM
Silvio Sauro
How wonderful for Mr. Obama. Maybe now the white house will become the black house.
Silvio
Posted January 4, 2008 05:28 PM
Stephen Kurtz
I think that the results in Iowa are foretelling of the divide that exists between those who want change and those who do not. As in 2004 and 2000 there will be little room for compromise because if Obama is nominated he will be construed as being too liberal and if Huckabee were to be nominated he would be looked upon as being too conservative. There is a strong possiblity that these two could get their party's nomination because Ms. Clinton is unelectable (2/3 of the Democrats think so) and Mr. Kennedy hasn't got enough money to be nominated. As for the Republicans, Rudy Guliani is too liberal on social issues and Mr. McCain is probably too old,Mr. Huckabee is very conservative socially and economically. Faced with the usual divide the conservative forces will win,
they have more money and more media support and the race card will be played subliminally and effectively. Obama can win if he carries the states where the poor would make a difference but usually the poor don't vote (or if they do the vote gets stolen as it did in 2000) The tragedy is the lack of compromise for that means little progress on the domestic issues that always decide American elections.
Posted January 4, 2008 05:18 PM
Wally
China
Mr Obama is a very credible individual. He does not come with any baggage and his message is clear "change is needed". His closest rivals have been with the power brokers too long and the American people are getting tired of the elite leading them into a path of self destruction. The Bush administration has made a mess of the economy and the perception of Americans abroad. Just ask why a lot of foreign people dislike Americans! I hope that Mr. Obama can bring about the change needed to get his country back on track.
Posted January 4, 2008 04:47 PM
keith cummings
bc
Go Obama Go!It was freshing to rarely hear the word "terrorists" or "Islamists" in last night's speaches by candidates. The era of George Bush and the politics of fear and bullying are over in the USA. The Republicans are a scary lot still, citizens of the world will hold our breath until a Democrat, Edwards or Obama or even Hillary, becomes Commander in Chief of the US.
I look forward to finding out the truth about the incompetance, the lies and the evil of the Bush administration.
Posted January 4, 2008 03:37 PM
Charlene Smith
Woodstock,Ontario
I believe that Oprah helped by throwing her support behind Obama.
I believe that Hillary Clinton would have been helped by her also.
In a country that is sick of Iraq,a failing economy and the loss of respect by the world,change is needed.
It has been reported that the young,women and people wanting change voted for Obama.
I have also heard his message is likened to that of Martin Luther King's message.
I personally believe change is coming,maybe slowly but it is here.
I think people are finally begining to see that we are all more the same than different.
I think people are also really taking a good look around at the world we have created as a society and don't like what they see.
If Obama can carry the message of change and hope to the people that Martin Luther King began in the 1960s before he was killed,then he will easily win the presidency.
If people don't think that this is a possibility then they need to also remember that blacks weren't given any rights until the 1960s and that wasn't that long ago in history.
If you can believe in a dream of change,then the dream can become a reality.
That is at least the dream that I carry for my kids and grandkids and the future generations coming behind them.
Posted January 4, 2008 02:51 PM
Denis O'Brien
Whitehorse
I remember as a kid attending a Catholic school hearing about the breakthrough that JFK was making in the United States. While he was not the first Catholic to carry a major party banner for election he was the first to succeed. At that time there were all sorts of hinderances placed upon African-Americans even voting, not to talk about running for president. Religion is a force of negativity still lurks too deeply in U.S. politics. The only Catholic was assasinated before completing his term and no other Catholic has had a chance. And being a Jew,Moslem or Mormon is still a handicap for any candidate.
It looks like there may be a chance that another taboo of U.S. political system may be broken. While electing Hillary Clinton may be a departure from White Middle aged Male of Protestant stock, her comes from the same segment of society. The election of Obama would show a great deviation from racial taboos that have hindered the United States.
One hopes that he can succeed and does not suffer the same fate as Kennedy.
Posted January 4, 2008 02:51 PM
Robt.
Toronto
I agree that this was a huge win by Obama (although I think it is dangerous to underestimate the Clintons).
This is a victory of style over substance.
If Obama is the Democratic nominee he can't compare to McCain (who I think will be the Republican nominee) for experience and judgment especially in military and foreign affairs. The Republicans will make a lot of hay out of this.
Also, the Republicans will raise his drug use.
He is in for a long unpleasant fight.
Posted January 4, 2008 01:48 PM