Story Tools: PRINT | Text Size: S M L XL | REPORT TYPO | SEND YOUR FEEDBACK

Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon

Comments (23)
By Henry Champ

In every marathon there is a point when the eventual winner makes his move and pulls away from the pack.

Finding that point, when you have the strength to make it happen, defines the real champions. And over the next few days, two Republican contenders with real chances to win their party's nomination, will have to make that breakaway decision.

The candidates are Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Fred Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee, better known to many for his role on the hit series Law and Order.

First Romney.

The former governor has solid Republican credentials and also proven, crossover appeal: Massachusetts is arguably the most liberal state in the union and Republican successes there are as rare as white buffaloes.

There are a number of reasons for Republicans to like him.

Among them, he is a fiscal conservative, the only candidate to sign a pledge not to increase taxes. He supports the war in Iraq and the president's policy on the "surge" of American troops there as well as charter schools, tougher immigration laws and the death penalty.

On some social issues, his record is more grey than black or white, which is a problem for the party's religious base.

At one time, he supported pro-choice for abortion as well as (limited) stem cell research. But he has dramatically changed his positions on those issues, telling critics in a famous exchange with reporters that he is "sick and tired of the holier than thou" attitude of those of have been pro-life longer than him.

While he was governor, same-sex marriage became legal in Massachusetts, but Romney fought that ruling and succumbed only after it was upheld by the Massachusetts Supreme Court.

His biggest political problem is that he is a Mormon. And that has been sinking his fortunes in polls among the GOP.

Remember JFK

It hasn't hurt him in the first three primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — where his campaign has concentrated its efforts on getting a fast start and building momentum. In fact, his leads in those states are solid.

But in the rest of the country he trails badly, in most polls running fourth behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Thompson and Senator John McCain.

A recent poll indicates 28 percent of Americans say they would not vote for a Mormon. This antipathy outstretches hostility to any Jewish or African American candidate. In fact, in recent years such polls on religious voting intentions show Mormonism is the only minority religion where an adverse bias is growing.

What these polls indicate is that many Americans believe Mormonism is a cult and not a real religion.

What this means for Romney is that the decision point in the marathon has been reached. Within days, you should expect him to tackle the issue of his religion and his right to office very much as John Kennedy had to do in 1960 when, as a Roman Catholic, he felt compelled to say, "I will not take orders from the Pope."

Fred's decision day

For Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator, the breakaway point comes sooner. Next Tuesday, in Dearborn, Mich., in fact, which is when the Republicans hold another of their so-called leadership debates.

These debates are about as gripping as watching preschoolers battle with feather dusters. But Thompson is labouring under a perception that he is a lightweight, lazy, not built for the rough-and-tumble of the campaign trail.

He entered the race late, has done well in the polls, running a relatively close second overall to Giuliani, just ahead of McCain and Romney.

Getting in late was a luxury. Saved money. Saved energy. Avoided potential mishaps and Thompson was able to do it, where others couldn't, because he is a bona fide TV and movie star. But the problem now is confronting his negatives. And because of his late start, he gets one chance with no honeymoon.

Watch the Dearborn debate. If he gaffes, he's dead. If he shines, watch a big surge in the polls. If his performance only matches the others, he stays fourth and drifts.

The rest of the Republican challengers will watch these two over these next few days, just as contenders do in a real marathon, measuring what their own reactions must be if either opponent moves forward.

Their breakaway points will come, too. But for the moment, the judges are watching Mitt and Fred.


« Previous Post | Main | Next Post »

This discussion is now Open. Submit your Comment.

Comments (23)

David Smith

Toronto

Hey Rob Weafer, first of all Ron Paul's strategy isnt blunt. Why? well Iraq is already a killing field its just that mainstream media doesnt report it. Just read "The Mess They Made" By Canadian Author Gwynne Dyer and when it comes to the IRS and the american income tax. Well every dollar that is collected by the IRS is sent to pay off interest of the money that is borrowed by the American government from the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is a private company created by the banking cartel in 1913 just watch "American Freedom To Fascism" by Aaron Russo, its free on youtube.

Posted January 22, 2008 12:15 AM

j.t

canada

Rob Weafer: your understanding of Paul's ideas and economics in general are misinformed. His ideas come from Economic theories that have been proven over and over. Read Hayek's Road to Serfdom and you might understand where his ideas come from. Compare the economies of Ireland and France for an interesting comparison. An artificially devalued currency is dangerous for many reasons. Plus, as far as Iraq goes, the U.S cannot afford to be there much longer anyway.

Posted December 4, 2007 09:02 PM

Rob Weafer

Ron Paul is not say anything new but certainly new on the candidate circuit. Also, he has some absolutely bizarre and poorly thought out ideas about everything and nows how to push buttons. He relies heavily on 70's style monetarism and speaks like he is still living in that time where the government was printing money to handle debt, inflation was out of control and jobs were scarce. (Inflation is currently less than 4% in the US and Canada, an unbelievable feat of fiscal control and touted as ideal in an expanding free market by most economists. Zero inflation =zero growth and ironically considered a form of economic stringency similar to communism.) Inflation is the naturally occurring wiggle room in the economy between wage and price tolerances and necessary if either is to change with desired growth.

Bizarrely, again, he would also like to pack up and leave Iraq wholesale without any thought to the obvious killing fields that would result without a measured exit and continued arms-length support and involvement at humanitarian and military/intelligence levels. He has also said in the past that he would like to do away with government budgets, income tax and the IRS which to me smacks of roadside tent politicking and promise making , a patently blunt strategy in getting noticed.

Posted October 30, 2007 02:12 PM

Alan Smithee

Vancouver

If not for his Mormon background Romney would probably already be the front-runner in the Republican race. Since there is a lot of antipathy between evangelical christians and Mormons he might have a tougher time securing the Republican nomination than winning the presidential election.

Posted October 29, 2007 05:10 AM

Christopher Clarke

Victoria Rob...THANK YOU! I thought I was the only one! Ron Paul is the only candidate out there not part of the status quo...one of the "party elite". A candidate with ideas for REAL substantial change! I may loose my Federal job and have to go to the private sector...but the prospect of getting rid of our "nanny" state just tickles me silly!

Mahalo Rob

Aloha

Posted October 19, 2007 12:12 PM

G. Jones

Vancouver

A small note of correction for William MacKenzie. Our first Catholic prime minister was Sir John Thompson, not Sir John Abbott, and Thompson did indeed serve as the head of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister from 1892 to 1894 in the interregnum after Sir John A. Macdonald's death. Our first elected Catholic Prime Minister was Sir Wilfrid Laurier, in 1896. Laurier was one of a succession of French Catholic Quebecois, representing over one-third of all Canadian voters, engaged in coalition-building with English leaders, and these geographic and demographic factors translated into the political arena probably account for our much earlier acceptance of a Catholic national leader. It was more like the North-South political and geographical divide in the United States than it was a clear religious issue. There was plenty of anti-Catholic prejudice in Canada when Laurier was elected, but like Kennedy did later, Laurier attempted to distance himself from the political aspects of the Church enough to placate Protestants without alienating his Catholic voter base.

As far as I know, none of these large-scale political considerations apply in Mr. Romney's case! U. S. voters will simply have to decide if his religious affiliation really matters to them.

Posted October 11, 2007 03:26 PM

Ryan

Calgary

There are plenty of rational people who believe in god. Maybe not a bearded old man who lives in the sky, but god. Pierre Trudeau, was a staunch catholic, and think what you will about him, you can concede that the man was rational.

Posted October 10, 2007 08:44 PM

J. Montague Gypsum

Does it matter?

Will anyone of them represent the interests of the layperson...doubtful.

The corporations holding the purse strings are where the real power remains...just ask Haliburton.

Posted October 9, 2007 01:42 PM

geo mano

USA

Which Mitt Romney ar you talking about? This man is a basket case of multiple personalities.

Posted October 7, 2007 03:32 PM

Scott

To be perfectly frank, Thompson (along with McCain, who sells himself out to Bush after being stabbed in the back) is far too old to be President. Some might argue that that isn't the case, and cite Reagan as an example. While Reagan, like Thompson, was old and couldn't really act he did some degree of charm that people liked. Thompson is about as engaging as a blank piece of paper.

Romney simply will not get the nomination. His being a Morman does not play well especially with strong Republican bases such as Evangelical Christians. He may have fought against gay marriage, but Republicans might also look at that loss as a sign of weakness.

There are no strong candidates from either party. Someone like Ron Paul stands out to people, but as a staunch libertarian, the country would be in a state of complete individualism and citizens would have no social safety net.

The election is going to be like watching the Superbowl without your favorite teams and being very drunk at the same time:utterly painful.

Posted October 7, 2007 10:59 AM

rjs

NC

Religion matters because it informs politicians' views of the issues. For historical reasons, Canadians may have warmed earlier than Americans to the idea of a Catholic head of state/government, but I doubt if Canadians would want their Catholic political leaders taking orders from the pope; a certain degree of independence from the Vatican, in fact, is a virtual prerequisite for holding national political office in Canada. It's the same with Romney. Until voters in the U.S. become comfortable with Mormonism, with how the Mormon faith informs the views of those who subscribe to it, and with how the LDS church relates to its politician members (and vice versa), a sizable number of them will (understandably)shy away from Mormon candidates for national political office.

Posted October 7, 2007 09:41 AM

Dane Wintermute

AB

Yo Henry
Can you spell Ron Paul?

Posted October 7, 2007 09:36 AM

Phil

Montreal

Is there some kind of rule at the CBC against mentioning Ron Paul? The blatant media blackout of Ron Paul seems to be in effect here as well.

Posted October 7, 2007 08:13 AM

joe

winnipeg

ron paul has an impeccable voting record? what, no on everything? i mean, that's why they call him Dr. No, isn't it?

Posted October 7, 2007 02:17 AM

dale gibson

thank you rob in victoria. i watch mainstream media in the u.s. every day & the name ron paul never comes up. thank god there are some good u.s. pbs sites. democracy now & free speech to mention a couple.

Posted October 7, 2007 12:06 AM

Rob

Victorian Rob: Thanks for your Ron Paul plug. You do have a point, though, in that the vast majority of candidates in the U.S. primaries are not letting their policies depart too far from the status quo.

Lance Low-blow: Please look up the word 'rational' in a dictionary. Personal experience and expected or probable outcomes are all valid rational arguments. There are plenty of rational theists, deists and agnostics, just as there are plenty of irrational atheists (of which you may have made a great case for yourself).

Posted October 6, 2007 07:26 PM

Allison

BC

Gosh Nathan, I don't think we have any of those capable and honest politicians you wanted to borrow!

Mitt might get there if he can overcome the prejudice. Grandpa Thompson doesn't have a chance.

Posted October 6, 2007 06:01 PM

William MacKenzie

Funny how Americans get so het up about their presidents' religious affilation. It wasn't until 1960 that they finally managed to elect a Catholic, John F. Kennedy, who barely beat out Richard Nixon.

Canada's first Catholic Prime Minister was Sir John Abbott, who served from 1892 until 1894. Two years later, Wilfrid Laurier, also Catholic, became Prime Minister. No one seemed to take exception to Laurier's religion.

So if Romney is a Mormon, so what? I suppose the other candidates, both Democratic and Republican, will be at pains to mention their impeccable mainstream religious affiliations.

Posted October 6, 2007 05:00 PM

Rob

Victoria

Congressman Ron Paul is the only true conservative Republican candidate with a host of positive changes and practical fixes for the USA. A monetary and Constitutional scholar, with an impeccable voting record, Paul has down-to-Earth ideas to end the wars, tighten security, fix the broken economy, rescue laws and civil rights, enhance diplmacy and trade, and bring back honour to the republic.

The other candidates, either Republican or Democrat, will merely seek variations of the current, disastrous course.

Posted October 6, 2007 03:27 PM

Nathan M. Pardi

Neither one of these fellows is the least bit qualified to lead the U.S. This should not be read to imply that Bill's wife Hillary, is, however. Kerry and Gore were little more than warmed-over voices of the sixties. Your neighbors south of the border respectfully request you forward us some capable and honest politicians.

Posted October 6, 2007 12:03 PM

Lance Uppercut

US

BNL,

Although I like the fact that you want to keep religious affiliation out of voting, I think you need to recognize that religion is based on inherently irrational beliefs. Rational people do not believe in god. Rational people need to convince religious people to give up their archaic beliefs, and then topics such as religion will no longer play a role in politics and political decisions.

Posted October 6, 2007 10:29 AM

BNL

Jesus Christ was one of the most radical, revolutionary individuals to walk the face of the earth. Yet, the "Christian" conservatives seem to have a lot of difficulty behaving in the way of Jesus. Theirs is the way of division, exclusion, and selfishness. Rational people know that God gave them a brain so they can think for themselves; they don't need the conservatives telling them what to do or how to think or what to believe. So, maybe it's time for the rational public to stand up to the fervor of the religious conservatives, and then politicians can be elected for their abilities rather than their religious affiliation.

Posted October 6, 2007 09:18 AM

keith cummings

bc

I don't want to sound cynical, but doesn't the party with the most money win?

Posted October 5, 2007 11:52 PM

« Previous Post | Main | Next Post »

Post a Comment

Disclaimer:

Note: By submitting your comments you acknowledge that CBC has the right to reproduce, broadcast and publicize those comments or any part thereof in any manner whatsoever. Please note that due to the volume of e-mails we receive, not all comments will be published, and those that are published will not be edited. But all will be carefully read, considered and appreciated.

Privacy Policy | Submissions Policy

Washington File »

About the Author

Henry ChampHenry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.

Previous Columns

Recent Posts

Vapour ads create successful campaign smokescreens
Henry Champ
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The parties are over
Henry Champ
Friday, September 5, 2008
The attack dog fights back
Henry Champ
Thursday, September 4, 2008
The plan for Sarah Palin
Henry Champ
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Paying a high price for Palin
Henry Champ
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Subscribe to this blog

Recent Comments

Hey Rob Weafer, first of all Ron Paul's strategy isnt blu...
Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon
Rob Weafer: your understanding of Paul's ideas and econom...
Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon
Ron Paul is not say anything new but certainly new on the...
Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon
If not for his Mormon background Romney would probably al...
Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon
Victoria Rob...THANK YOU! I thought I was the only one! ...
Watching Mitt and Fred in the Republican marathon

Archives

September 2008
(6 postings)
August 2008
(6 postings)
June 2008
(3 postings)
May 2008
(6 postings)
April 2008
(3 postings)
March 2008
(4 postings)
February 2008
(5 postings)
January 2008
(7 postings)
November 2007
(2 postings)
October 2007
(7 postings)
September 2007
(1 postings)
July 2007
(6 postings)
June 2007
(5 postings)
May 2007
(6 postings)
April 2007
(6 postings)
March 2007
(5 postings)
February 2007
(7 postings)
January 2007
(8 postings)
December 2006
(7 postings)
November 2006
(8 postings)
October 2006
(10 postings)
September 2006
(9 postings)
August 2006
(9 postings)
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Story Tools: PRINT | Text Size: S M L XL | REPORT TYPO | SEND YOUR FEEDBACK

World »

new Syrian killings continue as Annan flies to Damascus video
International outrage against Syria intensified Monday, with China and Russia speaking out against the massacre of 108 people, including 49 children, in the town of Houla.
updated Vatican corruption scandal widens
One of the Vatican's biggest scandals in decades appears to be widening with reports that an Italian cardinal may be part of a power struggle involving leaked documents, corruption and intrigue.
new Egypt presidential candidates allege vote fraud
Three top candidates in Egypt's presidential race have filed appeals to the election commission, alleging violations in the first round vote that they say could change the outcome.
more »

Canada »

new Quebec and university students to resume talks
Quebec's university students federation has confirmed that negotiations between student leaders and the provincial government will resume this afternoon.
new Baby boomer data will highlight upcoming policy challenges
New census data is expected to show how old Canadian society is becoming, effecting massive changes to the country's health-care and retirement systems.
Bullyproof: Video booth captures raw tales of teen bullying
More than 150 students share their stories about bullying and being bullied.
more »

Politics »

updated Canadian Pacific strikers face back-to-work legislation video
Labour Minister Lisa Raitt is poised to introduce legislation today to put an end to the Canadian Pacific Railway strike, after both CP and the union rejected a proposal for voluntary arbitration by the government-appointed negotiator on Sunday. Raitt will provide an update to the media this afternoon.
Western premiers to talk environment, energy and Tom Mulcair video
The environment, energy and federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair are on the agenda Tuesday when leaders of the western provinces and territories get together.
N.L. premier 'at odds' with Peter MacKay audio
Kathy Dunderdale, the premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, tells CBC Radio's Evan Solomon she's growing increasingly frustrated with the Defence minister's handling of coastal search and rescue.
more »

Health »

Chronic fatigue may be reversed with exercise
Taking it easy is not the best treatment for chronic fatigue syndrome, rather exercise and behaviour therapy are, a large study finds.
AT&T buys T-Mobile USA for $39B US
AT&T Inc. said Sunday it will buy T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom AG in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $39 billion US, becoming the largest cellphone company in the U.S.
Milky Way home to 50 billion planets: NASA
Scientists have compiled the first cosmic census of planets in our galaxy: at least 50 billion planets are estimated to call the Milky Way home.
more »

Arts & Entertainment»

Love film a 2nd win for Cannes director
Michael Haneke won the Cannes Film Festival's top trophy for a second time with his film about love and death, Amour.
video Stratford prepares for new director as season opens video
As the Stratford Shakespeare Festival opens its 60th season, high profile artistic director Des McAnuff is preparing to hand to reins to his successor Antoni Cimolino. Deana Sumanac reports.
Quebec actress captures Cannes prize
Canadian Suzanne Clement has been awarded the Best Actress prize in the Cannes Film Festival's sidebar competition, Un Certain Regard.
more »

Technology & Science »

Astronauts enter world's 1st private supply ship video
Astronauts have entered the Dragon, the world's first commercial supply ship, which is docked at the International Space Station.
Chemicals in tsunami debris could pose coastal threat video
The spill and spread of industrial chemicals across the coastline of British Columbia is a possibility as slower-moving tsunami debris from Japan approaches the west coast, according to experts observing its movements.
South Africa, Australia to share world's largest telescope
South Africa and Australia will jointly host the Square Kilometre Array, which promises to be the world's largest telescope, the international consortium in charge of the project said Friday.
more »

Money »

new Canadians planning fewer home reno projects
Fewer Canadian homeowners are planning renovations this year, possibly reflecting increased concern over household debt, according to the Bank of Montreal's annual home renovation report.
analysis What a Greek euro exit could mean for Canada
A tumultuous Greek exit from the eurozone would have a harder impact on Canada's economy than the credit crisis recession of 2008 and 2009, a report from a major Canadian bank warns.
Bankia asks Spain for €19B video
The board of directors of Spain's troubled bank, Bankia, has asked the Spanish government for €19 billion ($24.5 billion Cdn) in financial support.
more »

Consumer Life »

Honda recalls Fit subcompacts
Honda Canada says it will recall 14,640 of its 2009 and 2010 Fit subcompact cars to replace lost motion springs.
U.S. travel fee proposal criticized by Harper
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he doesn't think much of a new border tax that's being proposed by the United States, calling it a cash grab designed to help a budget crisis.
Bell class action suit approved by Que. court
A Quebec Superior Court judge has authorized a class action lawsuit to go ahead against Bell Mobility.
more »

Sports »

Scores: NHL NBA

5 stories, including Ryder Hesjedal's historic ride video
Canadian cyclist Ryder Hesjedal captured the 95th Giro d'Italia, the hosts won the Memorial Cup and it was Canadian vs. Canadian at the French Open. All this, plus more, in your top five stories from Sunday.
Shawinigan takes Memorial Cup in OT win over London
Anton Zlobin scored his second goal of the game 17:51 into overtime to lift the Shawinigan Cataractes to their first MasterCard Memorial Cup title with a 2-1 victory over the London Knights on Sunday night.
Spurs take Game 1 of West finals, win 19th straight
Manu Ginobili scored 26 points and the San Antonio Spurs won their 19th in a row to tie the NBA record for longest winning streak kept alive in the playoffs, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 101-98 to open the Western Conference finals on Sunday night.
more »

Diversions »

[an error occurred while processing this directive]
more »