The super-duper way of picking a president
Comments (13)
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 | 01:37 PM ET
By Henry Champ
At least give Eliot Spitzer credit for not hiding his motives when he announced the decision to advance New York's presidential primary to February 5 next year.
The governor of New York didn't resort to any of the over-extended rhetoric other governors have used as they, too, move or consider moving their primaries forward. You know, that the timing will make the selection process more democratic, and allow for better choices and more diversity, etc., etc.
Spitzer simply said that by, "moving the primary forward to February 5th, we will help secure New York's large and diverse population an influential voice in selecting the 2008 presidential nominees." In short, New York will get the clout it deserves.
He might have added that the new timing is also a boon for the two most prominent New Yorkers seeking the big prize. A huge early haul of convention delegates bodes well for both Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and her Republican counterpart Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of the Big Apple, as they seek the nominations of their respective parties.
But there is more at stake here than just giving New York its due. In fact, it is not the only state to want to advance its decision making. At least a dozen others are doing the same.
Voter-rich California and Florida lead a list that could mean the primary season in 2008 might realistically just be three weeks long. That's a big change and is likely to foster even bigger changes in the way the presidential nominees are selected and how their campaigns are focussed.
Front-loading
The way this works, you would start with the Iowa caucuses on January 14th, Nevada five days later on January 19th, New Hampshire on January 22nd, and South Carolina and Florida on January 29th. Then on February 5th, now being called Super Duper Tuesday, California, New York and eight other states check in. That's all in a period of 22 days .
This schedule is the Democratic one, but it pretty much mirrors the Republican primaries. And many observers believe the nominations for both parties will be sewn up by then.
Front-loading the campaigns benefits the "haves," the monied candidates who can pay for television campaigns in the bigger states.
The "have-littles," those candidates who hope that a good showing in what were the early contests in Iowa or New Hampshire would give their campaigns credibility, likely won't have the time now to capitalize on their gains.
These candidates always dream of emulating Jimmy Carter, who toured incessantly in Iowa and New Hampshire, shook the hand of every voter in those states and parlayed that into the presidency. With this new schedule, the little guys get mowed under.
Changing the debate
The timing could make a difference, too, in the nature of the debate.
Until now, every candidate has had to be an expert on ethanol. Can't go into Iowa, where corn is king, without talking up that issue. The ethanol industry has benefited from government subsidies and federal support beyond what even many environmentalists believe realistic.
But now the issues early on are more likely to revolve around big city needs such as immigration, public schools, decaying neighbourhoods, crime, drugs and maybe even gun control. Des Moines is not New York; Manchester is not Los Angeles.
And what about minorities? Their voices were often muted in the past when the campaigns ground through the mostly white early states.
Voters in these smaller, early states will still talk of their choices and will still get airtime. But reporters will want to know who is capturing the Hispanic vote in Florida and California. And what about the Jewish vote in New York? The soccer mom gives way to the urban condo owner.
One of the "have" candidates, Barack Obama, recently visited Iowa. In a Baltimore Sun article, he is quoted as praising Iowa's traditional hands-on, up-close politicking, saying, "I know that you folks in Iowa, you like to lift the hood, kick the tires, take every candidate out for a test drive."
But kicking Obama's tires will not likely be as easy as in past campaigns: In the next two weeks his campaigning will switch to seven other states holding primaries on Super Duper Tuesday.
So let's suppose the nominees are known by February 5, 2008, what then?
That would be eight months before the conventions are held at the end of August and the beginning of September. That's 10 months to election day in November. That's a political lifetime.
It's also bad news for the sitting president. Every decision he makes is likely to get worked over by both candidates.
An extended lead time is probably not the best ticket for anyone seeking election — more intense scrutiny and more time to stumble
But this move may also prove to be bad news even for political junkies: This next presidential campaign is likely to become very boring, for very long periods of time.
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Henry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.
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Comments (13)
sandy
Calgary
Yo Matt
When we vote in Canada the person who gets the most votes gets to run the country, not the guy with the fastest lawyers. A democracy? Give your head a shake, any semblance of a democracy went out the window when President Bush(really Cheney)took office.
Posted April 26, 2007 03:24 PM
Chris
London
How can we slam the U.S. for their style of politics? We don't even have the option to vote for our own Prime Minister.
Posted April 13, 2007 09:12 PM
Darren Lavigne
Is there actually one logical person in this world who honestly believes that the American way of electing a president represents the best democracy has to offer? Really?
Hundreds of millions are spent by each leading candidate in both parties, just to be the one candidate that then gets the approval to spend hundreds of millions more to contest an election. What a waste of money.
Now, our Canadian political system is far from perfect, and I do agree that our government has no business telling another government how to run things. To stretch that logic to suggest that individual Canadians can't express an opinion...Come on now. Really?
It is not necessary to live in Utopia to recognize the train wreck in your back yard.
Posted April 13, 2007 01:07 PM
BS
Vancouver
The Americans I know seem to consider their system a hold-over from the horse & buggy days, and in need of many major upgrades.
They don't like the electoral colleges first of all, and wish the US would go to a straight count of total votes for presidential races.
Usually next on their hit-list is the party nomination / primaries process. They gripe quite a lot about how their party registration works, how long and drawn out the campaigns are thanks to primaries, etc.
For all that, I can't remember the last time I heard of a US proposal to reform things, aside from just the usual academic theorizing.
Posted April 13, 2007 01:23 AM
Chad
Ottawa
Look, the primary races and the Electoral College are both relics of the past. It is time that the U.S. join the legion of TRUE democracies and reform their federal electoral system. This is no longer the 19th Century!
Every four years - race by race - the rest of the world looks agog at the astronomical sums of money and years of campaigning invested in the U.S. Presidential campaigns. The results speak for themselves - a half-wit who never travelled outside the country prior to election has thrust the globe into turmoil because he had the right father and a whole lot of money behind him.
The self-styled Cradle of Modern Democracy allowed the vote of the common elector to be trumped by an Electoral College that is not only not understood by most voting citizens, but unheard of by many.
Posted April 12, 2007 06:20 PM
Aaron
Edmonton
I have to admit, this is one of those things that really doesn't make much sense. I assume it was rooted in the idea that the candidates had to travel form state to state in order for people to hear what they were about.
In this day of Television, Radio and Internet access it does seem a odd custom now. However as with many things people tend to have a hard time letting go of traditions, specially when no one can remember why they did it.
Posted April 11, 2007 11:10 AM
Matt
Oromocto
I find irony in the fact that Canadians always feel they have the right to critique the way Americans run their country. I mean you have a problem with their foreign policy, sure, voice away, but its really none of our business how they run their government, or chose their president.
The entire premise that we have something to teach them about democracy is laughable, seeing as we live in a Constitutional Monarchy! The Queen may choose not to use her power in Canada, but legally everything still goes through her (or her representative).
Discussing our feelings on their internal decisions is one thing, but lets try and refrain from typical Canadian smugness in our criticisms!
Posted April 11, 2007 11:03 AM
film buff
Now might be a good time for voters to watch the film "The Saddest Music in the World".
Posted April 11, 2007 08:13 AM
Brian
Ontario
The U.S. election already takes way too long. Maybe longer than any other democracy in the world ? Moving certain primaries forward in time is only going to make it longer. I suggest they move the early ones much later, and agree to start the whole campaign much later than it does now. I realise that the first thing an elected politician does is start running for the next election, but what the U.S. has now is truly silly. It has to waste huge amounts of money, better spent on other things.
Posted April 11, 2007 07:07 AM
BS
Vancouver
The primaries system of doing things seems to be a bit silly, especially this jockeying to be the first one or two states that hold one. Maybe at some point they should just come to some sort of agreement on how to space things out more equitably. Overall this is just one of many anachronisms in their electoral system that are being stressed to the breaking point by modern elections. One wonder's whether they'll ever get a handle on fixing the electoral system and eliminating all these kinds of procedural tricks and tactics.
Posted April 11, 2007 01:20 AM
Phil
Coquitlam
I'm only amazed it took this long for New York and California to get tired of Iowa and New Hampshire's opportunism.
A more sensible approach would be to hold both primaries on a single day sometime in May.
Oh... and while they're at it, establish a neutral electoral commission (like we have) that runs the elections and determines the ridings, and abolish the electoral college in favor of direct elections.
-Phil
Posted April 10, 2007 07:36 PM
Jeff Wilson
Winnipeg
I think it's a good idea to have the leader of the opposition elected well before the next election. It gives the new leader time to put her or his stamp on their party, and more important, it gives us a chance to see what kind of leader she or he really is.
I am very glad that I have had a lot of time before the next election to observe Stephan Dion, aren't you? I ask you: Did Dion bring, or even begin to bring the breath of fresh air he promised during his run for the leadership of the Liberal party? He's had enough time by now!
The more time we have to observe and listen to our politicians before we must decide whether or not to give them our authority, the better we are able to make such an important decision.
The key to a good democracy is a well informed public! And that takes time!
Posted April 10, 2007 06:09 PM
Desmond
Toronto
Yeah, a Super Duper Tuesday will only mean that the primaries will end earlier and the general election will begin sooner. This might mean that the public grows tired of the two front runners and presumed nominees for president earlier and less people might come out to the polls in November.
Moving states like California, Illinois or New York closer together would not necessarily esnsure than the eventual winners will be more moderate in that part activists and primary voters are usally more liberal (Democrats) and more conservative (Republicans) than the average voter anyways.
The real change ... more big state issues will take priority in the Oval Office from now on.
Posted April 10, 2007 02:28 PM