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Obama makes his move

Comments (17)
By Henry Champ

Suddenly you look up and there are two. Two 800-pound gorillas in the same room.

Hillary has been on centre stage for sometime, but now Barack has moved in from the shadows.

Announcing today that he has formed an exploratory committee for the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois, ends what has been a favourite guessing game here in Washington for weeks now: Will he or won't he?

Clearly his advisers had made the point that his obvious connection with American voters — the one formed by his knockout speech at the Democratic convention in 2004 and his new book The Audacity of Hope — has to be exploited now.

As a Democratic strategist told CBC News, "a candle burns brightly for only so long."

Obama himself seems to acknowledge this. In his online video announcement, he says, "I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago." He adds, "I've read your emails and read your letters: I've been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics."

Translation: I'm surprised, too. You love me. My guys say it's now or perhaps never.

The more cautious option would have been to wait until the presidential race in 2012, six years from now. Use the time to build a real record of accomplishment and fill in the gaps on his resumé.

But six years to 2012 is more than a lifetime in Washington: In U.S. politics the Ice Age was shorter. And besides, in 2012 there might be a Democrat already in the White House.

The Obama factor

I have watched Obama suck the oxygen out of rooms where he was speaking and leave his audiences limp with excitement. His biggest weapon is his ability to connect at the personal level.

What's more, it's a connection that seems to cover all the bases — young and old, male and female, friend and foe. That charisma is not likely to fade too much in a long race but, equally, it won't get better.

Politically, his trump card at the moment is the Iraq War. He has been an unwavering opponent.

He was not in the Senate in 2003 when the president called for it's vote of support. He says the Bush administration went to war "without giving Congress or the American people the full story."

He recently told the Council on Foreign Relations, "Members of both parties and the American people have now made it clear that it is simply not enough for the president to simply say 'we know best' and 'stay the course.'"

For his part, Obama wants to begin a "limited drawdown" of U.S. troops in Iraq so as to put pressure on the Iraqi government to take more responsibility fighting the insurgency.

The race factor

Part of Obama's media appeal, of course, is that he is the first African-American to be seen as a serious contender for a presidential nomination. Because his mother was white and his father from Kenya, he often suggests that his lineage transcends race and ethnicity.

But that is not necessarily the way voters perceive him and this could leave him bumping up against the Ford-Wilder phenomena.

African-American Harold Ford ran for the Senate in Tennessee in the past election. Polls indicated the race would be very close but his opponent won easily.

Flash back to Virginia in 1990, Douglas Wilder won the governor's race there to become the first African-American to win state leadership. The pre-election polls had said he would win in a landslide but he took office with only a very narrow margin. Clearly white voters told pollsters one thing, and voted another way in the quiet of the booth.

Obama's inexperience is clear, especially when compared to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, a likely opponent. First elected in 1994 to the Illinois state legislature, he left to run unsuccessfully for Congress in 1998 and then returned to the Illinois legislature in 2000.

Then he ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, winning big but somewhat unexpectedly when the once-favored Republican opponent became caught up in a scandal with sexual overtones.

Voters who like the Obama message will have to accept this is a bright, articulate and well-educated candidate whose political history is brief and whose experience in "running things" is almost non-existent. That's the gamble Obama and his advisers have weighed and decided to chance.

Can he win? Yes.

Will he win? Who knows?

All that is certain is that the race will be much more interesting with his entry.

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Comments (17)

Cecile Vigneault

There are more Canadians than ever watching the pre-elections in the States. I would hope the americans would vote for a leader with foresignt to the future that leads to peace within its own country. Clean up your own back yard first as there are too many stories on poverty, crimes against humanity; failed infastructures on everything I can think of; unemployment (more than statistics are showing; racism and anyone who wants to add to this list are welcomed to do so. The point is we live in fear so we keep the Status Quo.
Suggestion: Get rid of the Inoome Tax Return; replace with the Income Return; and then allow $mints globally to print money based on Income Return; then governments - Federal, Provincial/State, municipals at all levels would have funds to change the list above. No more GDP of exporting/importing quantity over quality good. There are many people who have great ideas that can be implemented if we just don't stay with the STATUS QUO. We created our monetary system..we certainly can change. Have you noticed all the great leaders who sought change - Ghandi, John Kennedy, Lincoln, Martin Luther King didn't stay with the Status Quo.

Posted February 16, 2008 10:13 AM

Wilyum

The USA has to be turned up-side-down in order to land right-side-up.

The current administration has caused irrepairable damage that will be more evident when the current administration is no longer in office.

Hillary for President.
Is there anyone more suitable or capable?

Posted February 10, 2007 06:28 PM

Cy

The question to answer is whether or not Obama can win the swing States. I would like to hope so but I still do not think the US is ready to support a black nor a female leader. Gore would be a great choice, certainly since his coming out in the Inconvenient Truth. Sadly I don't think he will run again. That being said can you say President Edwards. And for any one in Obama's camp you can tell him to move to Canada we are certainly lacking in leadership. You got my vote when you get here!

Posted February 10, 2007 05:33 PM

Mike

Vancouver

It is quite disturbing to see smear campaigns by the right and neocon supporters like FOX NEWS is alive and well. It is even more disturbing to hear some american citizens still resonnate these views. Remember, you have been fooled twice, will you be fooled a third time? Elect a leader that will make a difference for the betterment of your people and the global community. Elect a Democratic leader.

Posted January 24, 2007 04:21 PM

Jerry

seattle

Chris in Ottawa thinks any black that fails to vote for a black candidate is disloyal. Can you say racist? condesending? hypocritical? How about liberal? Would you express such a preposterous opinion about white people? I think not.

Posted January 23, 2007 07:32 PM

John

Toronto

Obama as Prez is a pipedream...same goes for Hilary. There is no way on this god's green earth that a Black or female candidate is going to win the presidency in the USA in todays cultural climate.

The Democrats should come back to earth and pick a white male if they are serious about regaining power.

PS...I think Gore will run again.

Posted January 22, 2007 07:52 AM

Chris

Ottawa

It's not Obama's appeal to white voters I think is in doubt, it is the support of the afro-american communities. There has been a lot of rumbling that he is not "black enough" and this constituency is startlingly critical and even disloyal at times.

Posted January 21, 2007 12:12 PM

Joe Beef

CANADA

The Business of a presidential election in the u.s.a. is that of the american people and holds no weight on us up here, it's the americans that have to live with their decision.
Just remember how you got screwed over
with the Gore/bush election.
If you don't vote, the person you don't want in will get in!

Posted January 19, 2007 03:07 AM

Kari

U.S.

I too am dumbfounded by the lack of specific ideas by Obama and others.

Do us all a favor and do a piece on Wesley Clark. One of the CBC correspondents mentioned that he might run in 2008.

Clark was a four-star general in NATO, is the most decorated military officer since Eisenhower, saved over a million Albanians from ethnic cleansing, had high praise from Clinton, and is credited with saving an endangered turtle. Could anyone want more??

http://securingamerica.com/taxonomy/term/31

Posted January 18, 2007 08:07 PM

Jerry

seattle

Faith in Toronto, if it is true Obama has "thousands" of ideas to bla bla, I wonder why he did not mention even one of them in his recent coming out speech. Nothing but "can't we get along" and other platitudes. Of course liberals eat this up but if this is the best he can come up with he will prove to be all hype, PC and just another empty suit.

Posted January 18, 2007 08:53 AM

Ralph

Missouri

As an American I'm not happy at all with our president or his policies. I am wanting a real change. Obama makes a lot of sense in what he is saying. The last election showed that Americans want a new direction in policies. I hope he is elected not because of his race or party, but because of his ideas. I am a realist though. I know that all reformers have an up hill battle in American politics. It is part of this American culture. If he is elected, he won't be able to do all that he would like but, the direction of change could be started and that has always propelled Americans into action and has transformed our nation more than once. It is the conflict between the ideal and reality of our politics that keep me involved in making my country a better place to live in and to live next to. I would hope that Canadians give us the understanding and good wishes for a better country with better leadership.

Posted January 18, 2007 12:06 AM

Mathew

Mississauga

I believe the democrats could win the next election, but I think having Obama or Hilary as their candidate will greatly hurt their chances. All the usual republicans (or fence-sitters) that are unhappy with the current administration and wish to vote democrat now have to support an african-american or a female, instead of there usual old, rich and white male.

As sad as it is that race and sex are an issue in the 21st century, when all is said and done it will have a big impact on many voters (as Mr. Champ has given particular examples where race was an issue). I hope I'm proven wrong.

Posted January 17, 2007 12:54 PM

bii

windsor

Can anyone say "the black John Kennedy?"

Posted January 17, 2007 11:28 AM

faith

toronto

Obama is an idealist, a man with a thousand ideas of how to repair the badly tainted reputation of the United States, and improve life for all those living within them.

I'm usually not a pessimest but lets be honest, the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, and when the guy in the hot-seat is floundering around like a fish out of water it's always easy to stand back and say "I could do better".

I wish Obama the best, it would be a milestone in the history of America should he be voted in, but he needs to remember that unilateral decision making is not automatically granted to the President, he will have to sell those ideas to the harshest of critics -his fellow politicians.

Posted January 17, 2007 08:36 AM

Carol

Bright, articulate .... appeals to white, black, young, old, male and female alike.

That sounds familiar ... kinda like a "Black" Bill Clinton !!

Posted January 17, 2007 08:25 AM

Wayne N. Shuster

It's one thing to pump for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq while you're in opposition. It's quite another to be the President who unleashes a Rwanda-scale bloodbath by withdrawing them. The man is obviously crazy to want the job.

Posted January 16, 2007 11:49 PM

Joy

Southside

From the perspective of the rest of the planet Obama is the best candidate so far - which means you can bank on Americans electing McCain.

Has anyone asked Obama whether he supports an investigation of the Bush Administration for war crimes? Does he support reparations to the people of Iraq for his country's unprovoked invasion? What SPECIFIC environmental initiatives does he support? Since he sells himself as a man of the people, what are his SPECIFIC goals for medical care, minimum wage, old age pensions, education, etc? If he doesn't give CONCRETE answers up front the first time he is asked, then we all know that he will just end up another corporate puppet. A politician is a politician is a politician.

If Gore decided to run then Obama would stand a better chance as his mate.

Posted January 16, 2007 10:51 PM

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About the Author

Henry ChampHenry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.

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