Who will control the U.S. Senate?
Comments (5)
Monday, October 16, 2006 | 10:26 AM ET
By Henry Champ
Just over three weeks to the U.S. mid-term elections and 33 Senate seats are up for grabs.
Twenty-five of them are not competitive. The winners are pretty well decided already.
Eight, however, are toss-ups. Seven are currently Republican, one is Democrat.
In recent days, party strategists on both sides of the fight have told CBC that the current mood of the voter appears to be shifting to the Democrats. They have improved their chances to win the Senate, but it is still an uphill battle.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats must defend their toss-up candidate and win six new seats, which in practical terms means winning six of the seven vulnerable Republican states.
At the moment the Democrats are struggling to save the seat of Robert Menendez in New Jersey. The freshman senator is in a tight race against a strong challenger, Tom Kean Jr. whose father was one of the state's most popular governors and was also the capable chairman of the 9/11 Commission following the attacks of 2001.
Menendez, whose lead is a mere four points, according to the most recent poll, has also likely found his campaign weakened by charges of corruption against the state Democratic party.
The Republicans are currently trailing in all but one of their toss-up campaigns, and there the trend has been downward.
The polls, the money, the TV buys
George Allen in Virginia is ahead by two percentage points but his missteps (a racially insensitive attack an opponent's campaign worker being the most damaging) have left him on the defensive. The two-point lead is what's left of a healthy double-digit margin when the race began.
In Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri and Tennessee, the Republican incumbents trail, in most cases narrowly.
Opinion polls, mind you, are only one aspect of U.S. races. The other is money.
The Republicans have the most. They also have a reputation of using it well.
According to media firm TNSMI/CMAG, which tracks what parties are spending on political ads and where they are concentrating their efforts, the Republicans are building what amounts to a political firewall.
Virtually all their television buys have been in Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio.
Save those seats, they are reasoning, and you save the Senate majority.
What's interesting about this strategy is that in Missouri, the incumbent, Republican Jim Talent, is trailing state auditor Claire McCaskill — and Missouri has only once in the past hundred years failed to send someone to the Senate on the winning side.
In Tennessee, Harold Ford, an African-American, is leading in the seat that is being vacated by Senate Majority leader Bill Frist.
Ford, currently a Democratic Congressman in Washington, is attracting national attention with his campaign and if he goes on to win his profile will be enormous. A victory here would energize Democratic hopes in the South for the presidential battle in 2008.
So with three weeks left, keep a close eye on the races in Missouri, Tennessee and Ohio and if you're really keen, Google the these races to track local polling results.
Those of you wanting to try to predict the outcome can also visit the TNSMI/CMAG site to see where the parties are spending their money. The firm's information is provided to clients only but it does provide a broad public synopsis.
Add in the national preference polls, and you should be within one of two seats of the final tally.
[Editor's note: So Henry, how have you done over the years?]
Mixed, it's been mixed. But it will work this year. I'm sure.
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About the Author
Henry Champ is CBC Newsworld's correspondent in Washington, D.C., delivering Canadian viewers the latest developments in the U.S. political arena. Recently, he has been a leading Canadian voice on coverage of the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and the growing concerns over the Canada-U.S. relationship.
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Comments (5)
Mike Timonin
Ooops. I meant retaliation for an impeachment of Clinton, obviously.
Posted October 24, 2006 11:54 AM
Rod MacLean
Ottawa
Just as some of the most effective governments Canada has had have been minority governments Pearson's) - and some of the worst governments the US has had have been those with a single party having a dominate position. (Johnson's, for instance) maybe it is best that there is a split - with neither Democrat nor Republican having a complete majority and the White House.
Posted October 23, 2006 06:01 PM
Mike Timonin
I'm not sure they will. And, frankly, I'm not entirely sure that it would be a good thing to do if they did. That is not to say that I don't think that Bush has done something (or several things) which are impeachable offenses - but an impeachement here will look too much like retaliation for the impeachment of Bush.
Posted October 22, 2006 10:14 AM
Tim Bryson
If the dems take control of the HOR, will they have the stones to draft articles of impeachment?
Posted October 21, 2006 12:10 PM
Mike Timonin
From my point of view, a Democratic victory next month depends on the party being able to keep the campaigns focused on what they (and many of their constituents) regard as the important issues instead of debating the "issues" as presented by Karl Rove and the Republicans.
Also, shame on the Democrats for their actions to limit the Green Party.
Posted October 17, 2006 05:48 PM