Quebec economic update sets stage for election

Premier Jean Charest expected to call Dec. 8 election

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 4, 2008 | 8:42 AM ET

CBC News

The next salvo in Quebec's pre-election campaign will be fired by the province's finance minister on Tuesday when she delivers an economic update that will form the backbone of the Liberals' push for a majority government.

Monique Jérôme-Forget's economic statement is widely expected to be followed a day later by Premier Jean Charest's launch of a fall election campaign that will see Quebecers go to the polls on Dec. 8.

Jérôme-Forget said the update won't be affected by federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's announcement Monday that increases in equalization payments to the provinces will be smaller over the next few years.

"This has no impact on my economic statement tomorrow [Tuesday]," Jérôme-Forget said in Toronto as she attended a meeting of the country's finance ministers.

"I think that my statement will finally reveal the situation in Quebec for the next year and the year after that."

Election will revolve around economy

Charest has made it clear his pitch will be that he needs a majority government to steer the province through the stormy economic waters ahead.

Political scientist Pierre Martin expects Jérôme-Forget to say the province is facing a difficult economic situation and that it will be better for Quebecers to confront the crisis with a stable government.

"She will be both cautiously optimistic while at the same time trying to instill some sort of uncertainty as to what could happen if voters decide to rock the boat," he said Monday.

Martin also said things have improved for the governing minority Liberals and the Parti Québécois since the last provincial election in March 2007.

"The Parti Québécois leadership was very weak, the Liberals had demonstrated they were particularly inept in their leadership and in their governance in the years prior to last year's election," he said.

Martin said Quebec politics has almost returned to where it had been for decades, with the Liberals and the PQ "more or less sharing the bulk of the votes."

He suggests the Action Démocratique du Québec, the official Opposition, has the most to lose in this election because many federalist Quebecers who voted for the party in 2007 will likely return to the Liberals.

He also expects those who voted for the PQ in the past, but were "underwhelmed" by André Boisclair's appointment as leader, will rejoin the fold.

Boisclair stepped down as PQ leader in May 2007 after the party had its worst showing in decades just two months earlier with only 28 per cent of the vote.

"The Parti Québécois at least can present a leadership picture that is more appealing than what it was in March 2007," he said, referring to current leader Pauline Marois.

ADQ Leader Mario Dumont tried to pre-empt Jérôme-Forget's announcement with one of his own on Monday when he promised $1 billion to help the middle class, including financial aid to help Quebecers pay their mortgages.

Charest has separate speeches scheduled before the Quebec City and Montreal chambers of commerce on Thursday where he will discuss plans to guarantee the province's economic security.

Liberal caucus loses veteran members

If re-elected premier, Charest will have to find some fresh faces in cabinet.

Revenue Minister Jean-Marc Fournier has said he will not run, while Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Benoît Pelletier is expected to announce Tuesday he will not seek re-election.

In Quebec City, reporters were asked on Monday to reserve places on the campaign buses which are being outfitted by the main political parties.