EKOS

The federal Conservatives have a narrow margin of advantage over the Liberals, with a little more than three percentage points dividing the two parties, a new EKOS opinion poll suggests.

The poll, released exclusively to CBC, suggests that 31 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 27.7 per cent who would back the Liberals.

The Tories' lead over the Liberals has dropped to 3.3 percentage points, down from the 4.2-percentage-point spread last week's poll indicated.

But in polls over the past month, the Tories have seen a notable decline in support, with a lead of nearly 10 points for the party decreasing to a three-point margin.

The Liberals have seen marginal but stable increases over the last six weeks.

Support for the NDP was down slightly from last week, decreasing to 16.5 per cent from 17.4 per cent. The Green Party continued to show strength at 13 per cent support, 3.5 percentage points behind the NDP. The Bloc Québécois was running stable at 9.3 per cent support.

Respondents were also asked which party would be their second choice in a federal election.

The NDP received the highest support with 20.9 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 14.1 per cent, the Greens at 11.4 per cent and the Tories at 10.1 per cent. The Bloc was the second choice for 2.7 per cent of the respondents.

Liberals were most likely to name the NDP as their second choice with 38.7 per cent, while NDP supporters were most likely to name the Liberals as their second choice with 30.4 per cent, although those who favoured the NDP also gave strong second choice support to the Green Party, at 22.8 per cent.

Slightly more than half (51.1 per cent) of Conservatives polled said they did not have a second choice, and of those who answered, second-choice support was highest for the Liberals.

Bloc supporters would be most likely to throw their vote to the NDP if forced to select a second choice, at 34.5 per cent.

The poll suggests that close to half of Canadians (48.0 per cent) feel the country is moving in the right direction. Satisfaction with the federal government appeared to have rebounded from last week's all-time low of 36.6 per cent, with 40 per cent now saying that the government is moving in the right direction.

The random survey of 1,981 Canadians aged 18 and over, conducted June 16 to June 21, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.