Inside Politics

Omnibudget Vote-a-buster 2012: The Unofficial Official C-38 Timeline

by Kady O'Malley Posted: June 12, 2012 10:45 AM Last Updated: June 12, 2012 3:44 PM
UPDATE (6/12/12 3:45 pm) Sigh. Well, great. I've managed to convince myself that I was right the first time, as far as the most plausible timeline, although we really won't know for sure until tomorrow afternoon. If post-QP routine business goes later than, say, 3:45, it will likely push the bells until after private members' hour, which would mean a 7pm vote. If they get cracking by 3:30, the votes would begin at 5:45. 


UPDATE (6/12/12 10:45 am):  As promised, here's the timeline, as proposed, in time allocation motion format, by the government house leader moments ago: 10 more hours for report stage debate, and 8 hours for third reading. 

 As previously noted, what with one thing and another, the House is unlikely to begin the 10 hour report stage stint until this afternoon -- either just before, or immediately following Question Period -- which would leave two hours left in the meter when the House convenes on Wednesday afternoon. 

Depending on whether the opposition tries to stave off government orders -- which would normally start at 3pm -- that would mean voting would begin at some point between 5pm and -- oh, let's say 7ish -- carry on through the night and wrap up approximately 24 hours later, likely early Thursday evening.

That is, unless unanticipated events ensue, which does tend to happen around here. I'll keep you posted. 


As always, I'll let you know if anything changes. 

UPDATE-TO-AN-UPDATE: It occurs to me that I may have been just a wee bit optimistic in the above prediction. I'm now tentatively projecting the vote to begin slightly later on Wednesday evening -- closer to 8pm -- and run longer than initially calculated -- closer to 27 hours than 24, taking into account the possibility that opposition members will extend the process by refusing to allow the speaker to dispense with reading proposed amendments into the record. As a result, my current adjusted projection for the final division is now ... 10:30 pm. 


UPDATE (6/12/12 9:00 am): As noted in OotD, we should find out the timeline for the next few days later this morning, presuming, that is, that Government House Leader Peter Van Loan moves time allocation at the earliest possible opportunity, which would be at 10am, the start of the parliamentary workday. 

As soon as he does, I'll update this post with the details, so watch this space! 


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According to the proposed schedule handed down by House of Commons Speaker earlier today, not quite as long as expected, given the sheer number of amendments that have been put forward by opposition members, which, if voted separately, would have kept the Chamber burning the candle of parliamentary democracy at both ends for up to 70 hours. 

Instead, the motions will be grouped for consideration, with a maximum of 159 separate recorded divisions, or so-called 'standing votes'. That works out to somewhere between 18 and 26 hours, depending on how quickly members can get to their feet. 

As for when the marathon will get underway, well, that, too, is still somewhat up in the air: the government has yet to give notice of time allocation, which must be done the day before it intends to move such a motion, which means that the earliest voting could begin would be Tuesday evening, although it could also be deferred until Wednesday. 

Alternately, the government could give members two days to wrap up report stage debate, which would push the vote until Thursday. That, however, could end up playing havoc with the ministerial travel schedule over the weekend, given the upcoming G20 summit in Mexico. 

Oh, and one more thing: No, the opposition can no longer delay a vote indefinitely by simply refusing to show up in the Chamber at the appointed hour, a la the Great Pipeline National Energy Program Debate. 

UPDATE: Whoops! Got my infamous filibusters of days gone by mixed up! My apologies. 

Under the current rules, the bells can ring for "not more than thirty minutes." If the opposition doesn't show up, the government could simply go through one recorded division, and apply the results to all subsequent motions. (If the opposition wanted to be really mischievous, however, they could send in one MP to deny the required consent to apply the vote, and force Conservative MPs to go through the entire process without them.) 

In any case, we may have a better sense of how things will unfold later this afternoon, so stay tuned for updates! 




Tags: blackberry jungle, c-38, omnibudget, projected order of business