UPDATED - EKOS of the Week: Splat!

UPDATE: And here they are! 

A surely welcome bit of good news for the NDP, which seems to have at least temporarily pulled itself out of the doldrums with a 2.3 point boost. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are up as well -- not by yonks, but by a thoroughly respectable amount, and the Liberals appear to be sliding into their traditional autumn slump, losing more than 2 points since the last polling cycle. But where, you ask -- where? "Is it all in Alberta?" A stubbornly hopeful OLO strategist asks, "because that doesn't really count, you know, what with voter effici--" No. No, it isn't. Read on for the regionals, and the full autopsy of what could herald an early arrival for a Liberal winter of discontent:

(NOTE: As part of my perpetual quest to make polling results easier to scan, I'm trying something different today: specifically, using italics to denote which parties went up over the last week, and underlining the one with the biggest gain.)

British Columbia (MoE 8.50)
Conservatives: 40.9 (+5.6)
NDP: 23.5 (+0.3)
Liberals: 16.3 (-11.3)
Green: 15.2 (+4.3)
Other: 4.1 (+1.0)


See that? An eleven point drop in BC. That'll do it every time, if by "it" you mean "drag down the national total by at least a half point." Also, unlike Alberta or the prairies, as far as Liberal fortunes are concerned, BC does, in fact, matter, at least as far as the urban ridings. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have been slowly but steadily securing what is, at least for the moment, a seemingly insurmountable lead, with the NDP still far behind, despite having clawed its way back into second place. Oh, and the Greens got a bit of a bounce too. In fact, every party but the Liberals did.

Alberta (MoE 8.31)
Conservatives: 61.8 (+5.3)
Liberals: 15.0  (-0.3)
NDP: 12.4 (-1.0)
Green: 7.5 (-4.1)
Other: 3.3 (+0.1)


When was the last time the Conservatives crested 60 percent in Alberta? Anyone remember? Because I know it's happened before, but it's been a while, I believe. Anyway, to mark such a momentous occasion, that's all I'm going to say. We'll just sit quietly and think about how little it actually means for the party that already controls all but one seat in the province. 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 9.43)
Conservatives: 45.0 (+5.2)
NDP: 21.1 (+12.1)
Liberals: 20.2 (-6.5)
Green: 9.6 (-2.0)
Other: 4.1 (+1.6)

Well, look at that, NDP! You're back on top -- okay, second place, but leading the distant-also-ran group -- in Saskitoba! Meanwhile, the Liberals are down by six and the Conservatives up by five. Without a more precise breakdown of the numbers -- province by province would be nice, frankly, or, better still, urban vs. rural -- it's impossible to know whether this latent surge of affection for Team Orange could bedevil the Conservatives in a future election, but one thing is, at least, for sure: at the moment, the Liberals aren't posing much of a threat to anyone. What a perfect note on which to head into a couple of byelections, huh?

Ontario (MoE 3.84)
Conservatives: 37.8 (+0.8)
Liberals: 37.3 (+0.8)
NDP: 14.3 (+0.5)
Green: 9.5 (-1.2)
Other: 1.1 (-0.9)

Quebec (MoE 4.67)
Bloc Quebecois: 37.0 (-3.8)
Liberals: 24.0 (-0.4)
Conservatives: 13.7 (-0.4)
Green: 12.7 (+3.8)
NDP: 10.1 (+1.4)
Other: 2.4 (-0.7)

Well, this is just neat: The Liberals and the Conservatives seem to have gone up, and down,  by exactly the same fraction of a percent in Ontario and Quebec, respectively.  Other than that, not much change -- well, other than the Green Party apparently rallying slightly in Quebec, and the NDP on the rise in both. (Note: I know, I know, I shouldn't lump Canada's two most populous provinces together, Saskitoba-style, but with little movement in either, it seemed like the most efficient way to proceed.)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 9.85)
Liberals: 37.0 (-4.1)
NDP: 30.9 (+16.1)
Conservatives: 26.9 (+0.7)
Green: 2.8 (-13.8)
Other: 2.3 (+1.0)


And finally, to Atlantic Canada, where we -- wait, is that a sixteen point jump for the NDP? A sixteen point jump that vaulted the party that has spent the last few months stuck in the mid-to-high teens into second place over the seemingly suddenly embattled Conservatives? That ... seems rather sudden, doesn't it? Not that I'm trying to steal your joy, NDP, but unless I missed some game-changing, paradigm-shifting, rule-rewriting, outside-the-box-colouring news out East, this looks like it may be one of those wonky one-in-twenty polls, so let's wait til next week before we call it.

That's it for me. Over to you, commenters!