EKOS of the Week: Good news, everyone! No surprise snap late fall election!

Not with these numbers, at any rate -- well, not unless circumstances suddenly and unexpectedly conspire to give the Greens not just that ever elusive seat, but the balance of power in the House, that is, since they're the only party to post a gain -- albeit a wee one -- this time around. Everyone else, it seems, is either holding steady -- the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois -- or, in the case of the Conservatives, the New Democrats and the Others, ever so slightly down from their respective mid-month showings.

The topline numbers, based on responses harvested by the EKOSbots from October 20-26, which come with a 2.90 margin of error:

Conservatives: 33.9 (-0.5)
Liberals: 27.8 (-)
NDP: 15.1 (-0.7)
Green: 11.6 (+1.2)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.3 (-)
Other: 2.2 (-0.1)

Undecided/ineligible: 13.2 (-0.8)

Data tables available here -- and compare this week's results to the last cycle here.

So, what brought this on? Onto the regional breakdowns to find out!

British Columbia (MoE 10.57)
Conservatives: 31.3 (-9.6)
NDP: 26.6 (+3.1)
Green: 20.1 (+4.9)
Liberals: 19.2 (+2.9)
Other: 2.8 (-1.3)

Thanks to the magic of poll mathematics, the Liberals may have picked up support -- not a lot, mind you -- but still wound up sliding to fourth place on the West Coast, dropping behind the suddenly almost competitive-seeming Greens, who yoinked nearly half of the almost ten points shed by the Conservatives over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the NDP is up as well -- in fact, everyone but the Conservatives and the Others can put a happy face in the BC column. Still, at the moment, it really does seem to be a two-party race between Team Blue and Team Orange.


Alberta (MoE 9.80)
Conservatives: 60.3 (-1.5)
Liberals: 17.6 (+2.6)
NDP: 12.0 (-0.4)
Green: 9.2 (+1.7)
Other: 1.0 (-2.3)

To Alberta, where the Conservatives are still over 60 percent -- although not by quite as much as the last cycle -- with every other party so far behind that it really seems somewhat pointless to look further down the list, but onward -- and downward -- we must go, lest the tiny but feisty contingent of non-Conservative voters scattered through the province be left feeling ignored, although really, you'd think they'd be used to that by now. The Liberals and the Greens are up -- the Liberals by a full 2.6 percent, even -- and the NDP is down, although not by nearly as much as the Others. Don't despair, None Of The Above-istas -- take a gander at what's going on in the next province, and you may be pleasantly surprised!

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 11.71)
Conservatives: 42.4 (-2.6)
Liberals: 26.0 (+5.8)
Green: 13.0 (+3.4)
NDP: 12.4 (-8.7)
Other: 6.1 (+2.0)

... Told you so! The Others smash through the five percent threshold that I just made up in order to make them feel better about their lacklustre showing in Alberta. Meanwhile, the Liberals are -- well, it's not quite a roll, since this is, after all, Saskitoba, where single-digit shifts barely raise the corner of an eyebrow, but it's something, right? They're back in second place, at least -- which, of course, is still nearly twenty points behind the Conservatives, but the most noteworthy development, at least from a fantasy seat projecting perspective, is the eight point tumble by the NDP, which is now mired in fourth place behind the Greens, which would seem to bode less than well for the fortunes of the party's candidate in the upcoming byelection in Winnipeg North. Then again, these are, of course, the mashed-up results from two provinces, so it could all be Saskatchewan's doing.


Ontario (MoE 4.83)
Conservatives: 40.9 (+3.1)
Liberals: 35.5 (-1.8)
NDP: 14.3 (-)
Green: 8.5 (-1.0)
Other: 0.8 (+0.3)

To Ontario, then, where the Conservatives get their first bit of asterisk-free good news: they're over forty percent, and comfortably ahead of the Liberals, who appear to be experiencing the now familiar downward slide that always seems to follow a jump in support amongst denizens of the country's most enticingly seat-stuffed province. The NDP, on the other hand, stays exactly where it was, as the Greens drop a point and the Others keep reaching for that one percent rainbow.

Quebec (MoE 4.96)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.9 (-0.1)
Liberals: 21.8 (-2.2)
Green: 13.0 (+0.3)
Conservatives: 12.3 (-1.4)
NDP: 12.1 (+2.0)
Other: 3.8 (+1.4)

Hey, remember that revival of Conservative fortunes in Quebec that had us all buzzing a few weeks back? Yeah, turns out it really was a passing flirtation; once the talk of a shiny new federally-funded stadium in Quebec City died down, so too, apparently, did any possibility that the next majority will be crafted in Quebec. Well, the next Conservative majority, that is, although it's not like the Liberals are doing much better, all things considered; they've not managed to break out of the low twenties in ages. Meanwhile, the NDP is up, but still in fifth place -- confound those Greens, who keep eking out just enough of a bump to beat them out in what really is a three-way race to lead the tween-entombed also-rans.

Atlantic Canada (MoE 10.82)
Liberals: 37.3 (+0.3)
Conservatives: 34.0 (+4.1)
NDP: 16.4 (-14.5)
Green: 10.3 (+5.5)
Other: 2.0 (-0.3)

And finally, to Atlantic Canada, where -- and I really do hate to say I told you so, New Democrats, but I totally did. Looks like that sudden surge that put y'all in second place behind the Liberals really was a bit of a rogue, and you're back in third -- and a distant third at that, although still ahead of the Greens, who seem to have gotten a bit of their ginger back, and are back in the double digits after very nearly falling behind the Others.

Before I leave the detailed over-mulling to the commenters, I should probably note that there's some intriguing intel to be gleaned from this week's bonus questions, which examine attitudes towards the government's foreign policies, as well as the perceived effect that said policies have had on Canada's international reputation. If I have time later, I'll put up a separate post on those results, but the data is definitely worth a delve.