Inside Politics

EKOS of the Week: Let the first round of early fall election speculation begin!

by Kady O'Malley Posted: September 2, 2010 8:54 AM Last Updated: September 2, 2010 8:58 AM
Or, you know, not, given how eerily similar the results from the latest EKOS field trip mirror the polls leading into last year's iteration of the now traditional back-to-Parliament confidence crisis: the two front-running parties are locked in a virtual tie, thanks to the Conservatives slipping back under the 30 percent threshold, and the Liberals picking up just enough speed to cut that 5-7 point lead that the governing party enjoyed for much of the summer to less than half a point.

Oh, and a good chunk of the population  -- or, to be precise, 56.3 versus 26.0 percent of the weighted representative sample thereof reached by the EKOSbots over the last seven days -- remains unmoved by the government's attempts to defend the decision to switch to a voluntary long-form census questionnaire, although 17.7 percent offered no response. Meanwhile, approval ratings for the various party leaders remain existentially disheartening for pretty much everyone except Jack Layton, but this post is going to be long enough already, so let's stick to the voter preference questions for the moment, shall we?

The latest national results, from August 25-31 with a 2.67 margin of error:

Conservatives: 29.4 (-3.1)
Liberals: 29.1 (+1.2)
NDP: 15.7 (-1.7)
Green: 13.0 (+2.7)
Bloc Quebecois: 10.9 (+1.7) (44.3 (+8.1) in Quebec)
Other: 2.0 (-0.6)

Full data tables available here. 

As always, it's the regional results that tell the tale. Well, a tale, anyway -- I should point out that the margins of error are markedly higher than the last time the EKOSbots went a-data-collecting, which could explain some of the more eyebrow-raising results; given that fact, readers are invited to keep that in mind when sharing their thoughts in the comment thread. Okay, with that observation out of the way, on to the numbers!

British Columbia (MoE 9.56)
NDP: 31.1(+7.6)
Conservatives: 25.6 (-15.5)
Liberals: 22.2 (-1.3)
Green: 18.1(+7.3)
Other: 3.0 (+1.2)

Congratulations, NDP! You've managed to seize the number one spot in BC, although really, that seems to have more to do with the Conservatives shedding fifteen points over the last two weeks. Which, it's worth noting, doesn't seem to have done much for the Liberals, apparently -- in fact, they went down too, although not by nearly as much. The Greens, on the other hand, are up by nearly as much as the NDP, and are currently sitting pretty just below the 20 percent mark, within five points of ousting the gormless Liberals from third place.


Alberta (MoE 8.14)
Conservatives: 58.0(+2.8)
Liberals: 15.5 (-2.1)
NDP: 13.1 (+2.2)
Green: 11.1 (-2.2)
Other: 2.2 (-0.8)

Oh, Alberta. I'm this close to imposing a moratorium on even cranking out a one-line comment on your savagely unswaying sameness. Call me when you push the Conservatives over the 60 percent mark, or some other party cracks 20 percent. I'll be over in Saskitoba, where they somehow manage to keep it interesting even while maintaining an impressively consistent show of support for the party in power.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 9.70)
Conservatives: 51.2 (+9.8)
Liberals: 23.1 (+8.9)
NDP: 16.1 (-17.4)
Green: 8.9 (+2.5)
Other: 0.8 (-3.7)

See what I mean? The Conservatives are still ahead by many miles, as well as a furlong and possibly even a jaunt, but that's okay, because the NDP, which was nearly within heel-nipping distance last time around, has executed an elegant swan drive from its previously soaring levels of support, and is now behind the Liberals, which is especially inexplicable given the most recent outbreak of the Great Gun Registry Debate, which you'd think would have the opposite effect.

Ontario (MoE 4.31)
Liberals: 39.1 (+3.4)
Conservatives: 32.5 (+0.1)
NDP: 15.5 (-2.1)
Green: 11.5 (+0.2)
Other: 1.5 (-1.4)

To Ontario, then, where the Liberals have managed to eke out an admittedly impressive, if possibly fleeting six-and-change point lead -- which may have more to do with faltering NDP fortunes than any misstep by the Conservatives, who went up as well, although by so little that it could be a rounding error.

Quebec (MoE 4.99)
Bloc Quebecois: 44.3 (+8.1)
Liberals: 20.1 (-5.0)
Green: 12.4 (+3.4)
Conservatives: 11.9 (-5.4)
NDP: 8.9 (-1.3)
Other: 2.3 (-0.1)

Ahh, Quebec, where the Bloc Quebecois is this close to breaking the 45 percent barrier; the Liberals can't seem to make even modest mid-twenties-level support stick for more than a week, and the Conservatives are threatening to drop down into the single digits. Where, it seems, they will meet up with the NDP -- which is now in fifth place, but still comfortably ahead of The Others.

Atlantic Canada (MoE 10.22)
Liberals: 44.3 (+9.2)
Green: 19.4 (+13.4)
Conservatives: 18.7 (-12.4)
NDP: 15.0 (-11.3)
Other: 2.6 (+1.1)

And finally, we end our tour of the country in Atlantic Canada, which, as anyone who followed my epic adventures over the last week, is now the custodian of my heart. I miss you, Baddeck! (And you too, Prince Edward Island, and all of Nova Scotia, really, and even that tree-y bit of New Brunswick that we drove through on the way to Halifax.) Anyway, the Liberals are out in front, but what's really interesting is the sudden show of support for the Green Party, which is now in second place -- albeit a distant one, mind you -- with the Conservatives back in the sub-20 purgatory, and the NDP -- oh, poor NDP. You might want to scroll back up to the BC results, and forget about this coast for the moment.

Anyway, as noted earlier, there are all sorts of other interesting findings in this week's data tables, so if you're thoroughly sick of arguing over seat projections, feel free to dig in. I might do so myself in a separate post later today.

Tags: blackberry jungle, ekos of the week