Minister of International Trade and Minister for the Asia-Pacific Gateway Stockwell Day and Conservative MP Denis Lebel hold a press conference at the National Press Theatre in Ottawa on Tuesday Aug. 3, 2010. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

It's fair to say that Stockwell Day's morning press conference -- which was, if you'll recall, ostensibly supposed to be all about the economy, as underscored by the enormous Canada Economic Action! Plan-themed backdrop -- left some reporters, in the words of Sun Media bureau chief David Akin, "baffled" after the subsequent question and answer session, which, as predicted, quickly veered off in an entirely different direction than the one suggested by the signage.

Leaving aside, for the moment, the minister's (doubtless unintentional) muddling of the waters on the decision to abolish the mandatory long-form census -- although it's probably worth pointing out that, despite the minister's comments, the maximum possible fine for refusing to fill it out is $1,000, not $10,000 -- it was his "concern" over an allegedly "alarming" increase in "unreported crime" that seemed to most perplex the attending press. Just what, Day was asked repeatedly, if politely, did he mean by the "unreported" crime rate? Isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Actually, no -- at least, not at Statistics Canada, which has been keeping track of such incidents via various voluntary surveys since the 1990s, including the National Victimization Survey, part of the General Social Survey, which is conducted every five years.

The trouble with that particular survey, however -- at least, from Stockwell Day's (or, more accurately, his press secretary's) perspective, is that the most recent data -- collected in 2009 -- isn't scheduled to be released until late September. The latest publicly available numbers are from the International Crime Victimization Survey, which was last conducted in 2004. Given that Day seemed to suggest, in response to an earlier question, that census data becomes "untenable" a year or two after it was initially collected, it's hard to see how he would become "alarmed" by victimization reports from six years ago.

Anyway, I've sent in my query; I'll let you know what the minister's office has to say in response.

UPDATE: And we have an answer, courtesy of Justice Minister Rob Nicholson's office! Why Stockwell Day's staff was unable to provide us with the source of the survey(s) to which the minister made repeated reference during his news conference remains, alas, a mystery, but it seems that he was talking about the General Social Survey after all, which means that any "alarming" increase may or may not have reversed course over the last six years. 

Anyway, here's the full text of the response. (For ease of reading, I've highlighted the section that relates directly to the question that was asked, and left the accompanied talking points intact.) : 

Unlike the Liberals, we do not use statistics as an EXCUSE not to get tough on criminals. As far as our Government is concerned, one victim of crime is still one too many. 

What the Liberals forget to tell Canadians is that there is a cost to crime whatever way you look at it. Allowing criminals to roam our streets is not free. It costs money to try keep track of them, and sometimes when we lose track of their whereabouts and they re-offend, the impact can be devastating. 

Canadians would agree with us that as a law-abiding society we would rather keep criminals behind bars because the costs are much higher if we don't do anything. Our Government was elected on a promise to tackle crime, and we continue to fulfill our promises. 

Minister Day is correct in his assertion that many crimes go unreported in Canada. 

The amount of unreported victimization can be substantial. Statistics Canada reported in their last General Social Survey (GSS) that an estimated 34% of Canadians who are victims of crime still aren't reporting the crime to police, including:

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an estimated 88% of sexual assaults; 

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an estimated 69% of household thefts, and 

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and estimated 67% of personal property thefts.

Please refer to page 4 ofthis report for more information.  

In 2003, the Department of Justice estimate the overall cost of crime in Canada cost at $70 billion. Close to 2/3 of that cost was borne by victims. (FYI: Victim costs include the value of damaged or stolen property, pain and suffering, loss of income and productivity, and health services. 

I hope this helps.

Tags: blackberry jungle, not a math person, statistical karma, stockwell day, the more you know, unreported crime