EKOS of the Week: The Others are coming! The Others are coming! (To Saskitoba, that is.)

Okay, so first off, an important programming note: Until further notice, and with apologies to the EKOSbots, for the rest of the summer, or as long as this every-second-week release schedule lasts, I'm just going to ignore the results from the first week, as well as the "roll-up" that averages out the numbers over the full two weeks.

In the past, I've explained at length over my preference for fresh data -- like fresh pasta, it's tastier and more nutritious -- so I won't bore you with further methodological musings, but anyone who wants to pore over the complete dataset is welcome to delve into the tables - and feel free to discuss your findings in the comments.

With that out of the way, the topline numbers -- which, again, I should note, are from the second week of the last polling cycle (July 14-20), with a 3.14 margin of error. The +/- changes are also from the second week of the last polling cycle. 

Conservatives: 32.4 (-2.0)
Liberals: 25.5 (+1.6)
NDP: 18.4 (+0.5)
Green: 10.1 (-1.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 10.0 (-)
Other: 3.6 (+1.1)

Now, as the Conservative InfoAlerteBot so helpfully pointed out last time around, it's vitally important that we not see this as momentum, Liberal Express-related or otherwise. Got it? Anyway, I tend to agree with the Bot that last week's numbers may have been a bit of a fluke -- not quite a rogue poll, but one that definitely tended to sit at the very back of the class in high school, and probably has at least one piercing that you can't see under normal circumstances, if you know what I mean.

This week, on the other hand, looks pretty much like what you'd expect to see, as far as the new normal: the Conservatives ahead, but nowhere near majority territory, the Liberals mired in the mid-twenties, and the NDP bouncing around the upper teens like a Boston Terrier who just heard you say the w-word. To find out just what may or may not be going on, let's move onto the regionals, shall we?

British Columbia (MoE 12.45)
Conservatives: 31.3 (-1.9)
Liberals: 28.0 (+1.1)
NDP: 25.8 (+1.6)
Green: 12.1 (+0.4)
Other: 2.8 (-1.2)

So, it seems that it is officially -- at least for the moment -- a three-way race in British Columbia, with the three main parties separated by just six points. Ooh, that could be interesting -- if it holds until the next election, that is, which it almost certainly won't.

Alberta (MoE 12.06)
Conservatives: 51.7 (-9.6)
Liberals: 18.0 (+2.0)
Green: 17.0 (-1.1)
NDP: 7.1 (+3.6)
Other: 6.2 (+2.8)

Meanwhile, in Alberta, the Conservatives plunge by nearly ten points, finishing the week with a limp and anemic ... 51.7 support. (Note to anyone about to go crazy in the comments over my outrageous anti-Conservative torque: That was sarcasm.) So, basically, no change here, as far as electoral prospects, although the Greens managed to hang onto their third place spot, and are now a full ten points ahead of the NDP. Not that any of it matters, of course, since this is Alberta, and the Conservatives would almost certainly still sweep every riding in the province, with the possible exception of that stubborn outcrop of orange in Edmonton.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 14.0)
Conservatives: 42.4 (-2.1)
NDP: 32.8 (+14.8)
Liberals: 13.9 (-11.3)
Other: 8.5 (+8.5)
Green: 2.4 (-10.0)

I'm not positive, but I'm fairly sure this is the first time that The Others have managed to oust a listed party -- just two weeks after they quite literally fell off the map. You wanna talk momentum? It's all about The Others in Saskitoba. Oh, and in slightly less whimsical news, the NDP seems to have recovered from its prairie malaise, and is now within ten points of the Conservatives, and the Liberals -- well, they're still ahead of The Others, which is more than you can say for the Greens.

Ontario (MoE 4.86)
Conservatives: 36.8 (-2.7)
Liberals: 29.9 (+3.5)
NDP: 19.2 (+0.3)
Green: 10.6 (-2.7)
Other: 3.5 (+1.5)

Quebec (MoE 5.43)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.7 (-2.1)
Liberals: 21.9 (+0.5)
Conservatives: 15.7 (-0.7)
NDP: 13.8 (+1.8)
Green: 7.3 (+0.8)
Other: 2.6 (-0.3)

Not much change in Ontario -- the Conservatives slide by a wink, the Liberals climb by a nod, and the NDP holds steady-ish. (Yes, as it turns out, the point value of an 'ish' is 0.3. You're welcome!)  Meanwhile, it's much the same in Quebec - movement so slight that it barely registers on the hmm-o-meter, although the Liberals are, at least, back over the 20 percent threshold, which is probably a relief, and the Bloc Quebecois has dropped from the not-so-very-long-ago heights of 40 percent plus popularity.


Atlantic Canada (MoE 11.97)
Conservatives: 37.6 (+14.1)
Liberals: 31.4 (+6.6)
NDP: 19.0 (-23.0)
Green: 10.8 (+3.4)
Other: 1.2 (-1.1)

As for Atlantic Canada, well ... I told you so. Sorry about that, NDP. But 19 percent isn't so bad, right? As for the other two parties, well, again, due to the overall wonkiness of the numbers from last -- er, two weeks ago, it's a bit tough to figure out just what's going on out East.

Alright, that's it for me. Over to you, armchair analysts!