EKOS of the Week: Can you feel the Maymentum?

The NDP, meanwhile, slips by nearly a point, and the Bloc Quebecois by nearly twice that, falling close to five points in the only province where it matters. Really, it's the Green Party that had the best week, all things considered: not only did they go up by more than a point nationally, but they've also posted results on the positive side of the opinion ledger across the country. 

First, the topline numbers, with a 2.5 margin of error:

Conservatives: 31.4 (-0.3)
Liberals: 26.8 (+0.6)
NDP: 16.6 (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.9 (-2.6) 35.8 in Quebec (-4.9)
Green: 12.6 (+1.1)
Other: 3.8 (+0.9)

Undecided: 14.5 (-)

Full data tables available here. 

And the regionals:

British Columbia (MoE 6.81)
Conservatives: 30.8 (-2.8)
NDP: 26.0 (+0.9)
Green: 20.2 (+3.4)
Liberals: 19.1 (-0.7)
Other: 3.9 (+1.0)

Don't look now, Conservatives, but the NDP appears to be hot on your heels, at least as far as the battle for British Columbia, although it was the Green Party that saw the most dramatic change last week: with a 3.4 point gain, they've managed to oust the Liberals from third place. although they're still more than six points behind the apparently reenergized Dippers. 

Alberta (MoE 7.87)
Conservatives: 51.9 (-2.7)
Liberals: 22.7 (+5.3)
Green: 12.6 (+2.1)
NDP: 8.7 (-4.9)
Other: 4.1 (+0.2)

On the other hand, the Liberals can still claim to be the closest thing to a contender that the Conservatives have in Alberta -- although what with it being Alberta and all, that's not saying much -- as the Conservatives come perilously close to falling below the 50 percent mark, the Greens take third place in a second province, and the NDP is relegated to the single digits. (It's probably not a good sign when your total support is less than a point above the margin of error, is it?)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 9.90)
Conservatives: 49.8 (+10.4)
NDP: 22.0 (-4.5)
Liberals: 15.1 (-9.1)
Green: 10.3 (+2.2)
Other: 2.8 (+1.0)

To Saskitoba, then, where the Conservatives leap forward by more than ten points, and the Liberals plummet by nearly as much, although the NDP -- which is, after all, actually competitive on the prairies, at least in theory -- takes a bit of a tumble as well, although they appear to be in no danger of losing the runner-up slot any time soon. 

Ontario (MoE 4.18)
Liberals: 36.1 (+1.9)
Conservatives: 32.1 (-2.2)
NDP: 17.1 (+0.3)
Green: 11.5 (+0.5)
Other: 3.2 (+0.4)

The Liberals manage to extricate themselves from last week's virtual tie, and are back on the right side of the 35 percent mark in Ontario for the first time in ages, although they've not yet come close to the ten point lead that they had carved out before the most recent crash. The Conservatives, meanwhile, fall by two points -- which is, of course, within the regional margin of error, but still, if they had their druthers, I bet they'd rather be on top of even the most notional and theoretical of polls. Wouldn't everyone, really?

Quebec (MoE 4.92)
Bloc Quebecois: 35.8 (-4.9)
Liberals: 18.9 (-0.7)
Conservatives: 17.2 (+1.9)
NDP: 12.0 (+1.0)
Green: 10.4 (-)
Other: 5.9 (+3.0)

Quebec, on the other hand, appears to be turning into a bit of a headache for the Liberals, who haven't managed to crack the 20 percent barrier in weeks; the Conservatives, meanwhile, are on the upswing, gaining nearly two points over five days, which puts them on the verge of ousting the Liberals from the much-coveted second place slot. The Bloc Quebecois, in contrast, saw their support sag by nearly five points, and The Others are up by three, which suggests either a growing existential malaise within the Quebec electorate, or a slightly quirkier and more independent-minded sample population than usual.

Atlantic Canada (MoE 8.40)
Liberals: 34.7 (+1.1)
Conservatives: 31.6 (-1.0)
NDP: 19.2 (-4.2)
Green: 13.7 (+5.7)
Other: 0.8 (-1.6)

Finally, Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals are back in first place, although not by nearly as much as was the case a few months back, and the NDP dropping slightly; once again -- and as has been the intriguing b-plot throughout this week's numbers -- it is the Green Party that experienced the most dizzying leap forward, clearing the double digit barrier with room to spare.

Direction of the country
Right: 48.1 (-1.1)
Wrong: 39.4 (+0.3)
Skipped: 12.4 (+0.7)


Direction of the government
Right: 38.4 (-0.5)
Wrong: 48.6 (+0.6)
Skipped: 13.0 (-)

Not much change here, really; Canadians, it seems, continue to be reasonably comfortable with where the country is headed, but still aren't giving rave reviews to the government charged with getting it there, wherever it is that "there", in this context, happens to be.

Over to you, armchair pollologists!