EKOS of the Week: Congratulations, CPC! You're back in the 33-Plus Club

Data tables available here. 

On to the regionals!

British Columbia (MoE 6.33)
Conservatives: 29.6 (+0.8)
NDP: 25.5 (-3.1)
Liberals: 25.1 (+2.4)
Green: 15.3 (-0.8)
Other: 4.6 (+0.5)

The Conservatives are back in front, mostly due to the rollercoasting fortunes of the NDP, which once again finds itself locked in a virtual tie with the Liberals after sliding by more than three points over the last week; the Liberals, on the other hand, seem to be showing a faint spark of life, picking up 2.4 points from last week.
 
Alberta (MoE 6.88)
Conservatives: 49.8 (-4.7)
Green: 16.6 (+6.0)
Liberals: 15.4 (+0.3)
NDP: 11.5 (-2.0)
Other: 6.7 +0.3)

As teasered earlier, the Greens have managed to elbow their way to the top of the Also Ran heap in Alberta, zooming up by six points over the last polling cycle. The Conservatives, on the other hand, fell below the 50 percent point for the first time in ages -- not that it matters, of course, since this is, after all Alberta; they could drop by twenty points and still be reasonably confident that they would still win every seat in the province. (Well, except for Edmonton-Strathcona, which may well remain an outpost of orange, but still. You get my point.) 


Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.92)
Conservatives: 48.4 (+10.2)
NDP: 21.6 (-2.2)
Liberals: 19.8 (-7.7)
Green: 8.3 (-0.7)
Other: 2.0 (+0.4)

One can only hope that Liberal supporters weren't filled with false hope after last week's apparent surge of support in the prairies, since whatever momentary burst of momentum they may have enjoyed seems to have evaporated like the dew; they're back in third place -- and not even a close third -- after plummeting like a stone, shedding nearly eight points in a week, every one of which (and then some) going to the Conservatives, who are up by more than ten points, and once again on the verge of hitting the 50 percent mark in not one but two provinces. The NDP, while still technically in second place, dropped by 2.2 points, and the Greens just can't seem to make it out of the single digits. Then again, this is Saskitoba; I fully expect that at some point, the Others will end up on top.

Ontario (MoE 3.99)
Conservatives: 36.3 (+0.3)
Liberals: 32.5 (-1.7)
NDP: 15.7 (-2.0)
Green: 12.6 (+3.3)
Other: 3.0 (-0.1)

Hey, remember when the Liberals were actually ahead in Ontario? It wasn't that long ago, mind you -- maybe a month or so, give or take a week -- but since those heady days of being the first party listed in at least one province, the Liberals have been slowly but steadily sliding back to the low thirties, as the Conservatives crept just as slowly and steadily upwards. The Greens, on the other hand, should feel entirely chuffed at being back in the game after a lacklustre spring; they're up by three, which puts them just three points behind the NDP, which lost two points over the last week. 


Quebec (MoE 4.25)
Bloc Quebecois: 40.4 (+1.9)
Liberals: 20.9 (+1.6)
Conservatives: 18.4 (+2.4)
NDP: 9.6 (-3.0)
Green: 8.4 (-2.0)

To Quebec, then, where -- hey, look, nearly everyone went up this week, although the Conservatives led the way, picking up an impressive 2.4 points, leaving them achingly close to, but just short of, the 20 percent threshold, which the Liberals managed to cross -- albeit just -- after being relegated to the high teens last week. (No, I'm not sure why 20 percent is a threshold, but it's a nice, round number, so let's go with it.) The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, continues to sit smugly above it all, boasting more support than the next two contenders combined, and the NDP -- well, best not dwell on the state of the NDP in Quebec really. They seem to get awfully cranky when one points it out.

Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.82)
Conservatives: 36.8 (+1.9)
Liberals: 32.9 (-1.3)
NDP: 23.2 (+7.7)
Green: 6.1 (-7.4)
Other: 1.0 (-1.0)

And finally, Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives are still in the lead, but the NDP is totally back in the game, you guys; after spending the last few weeks rattling around the mid-teens, they're up by nearly eight points. The Liberals, meanwhile, fall by a point and change, and the Greens -- yikes. Halifax, it seems, will not soon forget your churlish abandonment of Central Nova, Ms. May.

Wait, did I say finally? Scratch that, because there's one more number that has to be solemnly considered. I speak, of course, of the direction of government. The Thumbs Upians stand at 42.1 percent -- a slight dip from last week's 43.2 -- and the Thumbs Downista are at 44.9 percent -- a jump of just over a point from 43.8. 

That's it for me -- over to you, commenters!