EKOS of the Week: Saskitoba dreamin'

Full data tables available here. 

The Conservatives gain an entirely respectable 1.4 points, the Liberals, a somewhat less robust 0.3. The NDP stumbles, losing a tenth of a percentage point, and Green support declines by a point, while the Bloc jumps by three and a half in Quebec. Nothing out of the ordinary here, right? Hold that thought.

British Columbia (MoE 7.19)
NDP: 29.5 (+4.0)
Conservatives: 28.8 (-0.6)
Liberals: 19.6 (-10.00)
Green: 18.2 (+5.2)
Other: 3.9 (+0.9)

... And welcome to the West Coast, where the NDP have somehow rocketed from third to first place in a week as the Liberals drop an astonishing ten points -- a double-digit swing that made me wonder, at first, if I was reading the wrong column. Of course, that was before I saw what was ostensibly going on in Saskitoba, at least according to the EKOSbots - which, by the way, I like to picture as Roombas for some reason - but we'll get to that later.

Anyway, this was the first indication that this week's regional breakdowns might be a bit more huh-inducing than usual, despite the relative normalcy of the national results. (Not that I'm suggesting the Liberals couldn't lose ten points virtually overnight in BC, mind you, but in this case, it seemed a bit unlikely, given the conspicuous absence of any sort of easily recognized impetus for such a sudden fall.)

Alberta (MoE 10.11)
Conservatives: 55.7 (+2.9)
Liberals: 17.5 (+2.9)
Green: 13.8 (-1.0)
NDP: 8.4 (-3.2)
Other: 4.6 (-1.6)

Alberta, on the other hand, remains as placidly implacable as ever, despite a 10 point margin of error. Then again, when one party manages to maintain a comfortable thirty-odd point lead over its nearest rival, year in, year out, it's not like there's much chance that even a smaller than usual sample size will yield much in the way of deviation from the norm. Ooh, that should totally be some plucky independent candidate's campaign slogan next time around: Vote [INSERT NAME HERE]: Deviate from the norm! 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba ( MoE 11.71)
Liberals: 35.2 (+13.8)
Conservatives: 32.8 (-16.1)
NDP: 18.6 (+4.4)
Green: 13.4 (+2.0)
Other: 0.0 (-4.0)

If you're wondering, it was right about here that I started to worry that I might be hallucinating. The Liberals take the lead in the prairies, thanks to a staggering-even-by-Saskitoban-standards thirteen point jump? When was the last time that happened? (No, that wasn't a rhetorical question: As far as I can recall, this is a first as far as the EKOS weeklies.) Meanwhile, the Conservatives plummet by sixteen points, the NDP and the Greens divvy up the scraps, and The Others are wiped out completely, as if they'd never existed. To the donkey wheel, Ben!

Ontario (MoE 6.64)
Conservatives: 39.5 (+4.2)
Liberals: 31.8 (-1.0)
NDP: 16.0 (+0.6)
Green: 12.0 (-1.8)
Other: 0.8 (-1.9)

Ontario, meanwhile, leaves Conservatives smiling in satisfaction over what appears to be a commanding seven point lead in a province where it actually matters, although with that margin of error - nearly double the usual - they may want to brace themselves for next week's results, which could well show them back in a virtual tie with the Liberals. In Ontario, that is -- not Canada-wide.

Quebec (MoE 7.95)
Bloc Quebecois: 39.4 (+3.5)
Liberals: 23.6 (+1.8)
Conservatives: 17.0 (-0.3)
NDP: 9.6 (-2.5)
Green: 8.3 (-2.8)
Other: 2.2 (-0.5)

Last week was, it seems, not a particularly good one for the forces of federalism -- well, except for the Liberals, although really, a 1.8 point gain isn't going to do much to dent the Bloc.

Atlantic Canada (MoE 11.17)
Liberals: 38.1 (+5.4)
Conservatives: 36.1 (+7.8)
NDP: 20.3 (-4.3)
Green: 5.5 (-4.4)
Other: 0.0 (-4.4)

Hey there, Atlantic Canada! Whatcha doin'? Loving the Conservatives a lot more than you did the previous week, apparently -- and the Liberals too, although not by quite as much -- while folding your arms crossly and glaring pointedly at the NDP, the Greens, and the temporarily-off-the-radar Others.

Meanwhile, as far as right direction/wrong direction goes -- no pun intended -- the Righties, at 43.2, are up by a pip (+1.3), the Wrongistas (46.5) by a squeak (+1.1).

As you can see, this is one of those rare instances in which venturing into the regional breakdowns actually ends up leaving you more confused over what's actually going on with the electorate. It's probably safe to say that not much has changed, as the national numbers would suggest, and probably even safer to leave it at that. Which is what I'll do right now --. over to you, commenters!