EKOS of the Week: Mind the (4.2) gap, Liberals

The Liberals, meanwhile, are down a full 0.2 percent, mostly due to frittering away the gains made in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while vaulting forward with slightly less strength and fortitude in Ontario. As for the NDP -- well, they've pulled into second place in British Columbia and are on the march in Quebec, which likely makes up for being behind the Greens in Alberta. Also, it's Alberta.

First, the top line numbers, with a slim, trim 2.17 margin of error:

Conservatives: 33.1 (+1.2)
Liberals: 28.9 (-0.2)
NDP: 15.7 (-0.3)
Green: 10.8 (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.2 (+0.1) (In Quebec 36.8 (+0.3))
Other: 2.3 (-0.1)

Undecided: 11.4 (-1.2)

Full data tables available here. 

And the regional numbers:

British Columbia (MoE 5.88)
Conservatives: 32.0 (-4.4)
NDP: 24.8 (+3.6)
Liberals: 23.6 (+1.7)
Green: 16.3 (-1.2)
Other: 3.2 (+0.3)

That gold medal afterglow, it seems, is over, at least as far as the Conservatives in British Columbia are concerned, apparently so ephemeral that it faded before the Paralympic Games had drawn to a close. The NDP, meanwhile, is now, as noted, in second place on the west coast, albeit with the Liberals close behind.

Alberta (MoE 6.37)
Conservatives 58.3 (+8.1)
Liberals: 17.3 (-4.6)
Green: 11.3 (+0.6)
NDP: 9.2 (-3.8)
Other: 3.9 (-0.3)

An eight point jump for the Conservatives anywhere other than Alberta would, of course, be cause for giddy celebration at party headquarters over on Queen Street, but ... well, it's Alberta. I'm sorry, Alberta, but until such time as there is more than one seat nominally at play, you just aren't all that interesting from an election prediction perspective, although it's always fun to watch the other parties fight over the scraps. This time, everyone else managed to go down except the Greens, so I'd keep your eyes trained firmly on Elizabeth May, who could always pull up stakes in Sannich-Gulf Islands, and run in Edmonton Strathcona instead.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba (MoE 8.28)
Conservatives: 42.8 (-2.5)
Liberals: 29.2 (+3.8)
NDP: 16.2 (-5.7)
Green: 10.6 (+3.9)
Other: 1.2 (+0.5)

Good morning, Saskitoba! Feeling a bit counterconventional this week, I see -- boosting the Greens and the Liberals up by nearly eight points combined, and withholding a whole lotta prairie love from the NDP and the Conservatives. Truly, your persistent inscrutability is an inspiration to everyone who has ever vowed to give up the mug's game of polling analysis, and let the political tumbleweeds blow where they may.

Ontario (MoE 3.63)
Conservatives: 35.6 (+2.8)
Liberals: 35.6 (+0.4)
NDP: 16.3 (-1.6)
Green: 10.4 (-0.2)
Other: 2.1 (-0.8)

Okay, so as far as I can tell, the Liberals should officially be panicking quietly over their continuing abject failure to lock in anything approaching a respectable, definitively outside-the-margin-of-error lead in Ontario. Ontario is your safety province, guys! Plus, I'm not sure if you've heard this, but it's seat rich -- just spilling over with succulent, juicy seats ready to be savoured. Yes, yes, you managed to go up by 0.4 points, but the Conservatives managed to go up by seven times as much, so any reflexive smugness you might be feeling right now is entirely undeserved.

Quebec (MoE 4.39)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.8 (+0.3)
Liberals: 24.2 (-3.2)
Conservatives: 16.3 (+0.3)
NDP: 11.9 (+3.0)
Green: 9.3 (-0.6)
Other: 1.5 (+0.3)

As for Quebec, everybody wins except the Liberals and the Greens, a trend that is likely to be particularly satisfying for the NDP, which has been vying with the latter for fourth place for weeks. Also, just to be nice, let's give Max Bernier full credit for that 0.3 point jump for the Conservatives. Well done, Max -- but you're still not getting back in cabinet anytime soon.


Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.80)
Conservatives: 35.9 (+3.7)
Liberals: 35.5 (-1.7)
NDP: 17.2 (-2.7)
Green: 8.0 (-0.5)
Other: 3.4 (+1.2)

Finally, there is Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives have once again vaulted ahead of the Liberals with an impressive 3.7 percent surge, and the NDP continues to drift lackadaisically downwards, although that, like everything else, could change over the next few days. This is pollology, people -- it makes astrology look like astronomy, for heaven's sake.

Oh, and finally, not much change on the direction o' government front, but there are some intriguing second-choice numbers on page five of the PDF with the data tables. 

Now, I should note that I always hesitate before plunging into sweeping analysis of that particular line of questioning, mostly because I always find it weird when respondents insist that they have no second choice, because honestly, people, it's not a loyalty test, so you don't have to try to impress the EKOSbot with the strength of your commitment to your party of choice. In any case, of those willing to state a preference for one of the other parties, more Conservatives would vote Liberal than Liberals would vote Conservative, but more Liberals would vote NDP than NDP would vote Liberal. 

Bloquistes prefer the NDP when forced to choose between federalist options, and Greens are pretty much split between the Liberals and the NDP, despite Preston Manning's persistent attempt to persuade his former party that the environmentalist vote is ripe for conservative movement plucking. As for the Others, they tend to lean towards the Conservatives as well, with the Greens a distant second, as far as second choices, and the Liberals preferred by just 3.6 percent, which might well augur ill if we had any idea what it actually meant.

Alright, that's it for me for the moment --  go forth and discuss, commenters!