Inside Politics

EKOS of the Day: Nothing to see here, folks -- move along, move along.

by Kady O'Malley Posted: March 10, 2010 4:05 PM Last Updated: March 11, 2010 7:07 AM
No, seriously -- despite the Speech from the Throne, the budget and the triumphant return of Parliament, the numbers don't seem to be doing much at all, at least as far as rising or falling breaking the fourth wall of the polloverse and going sideways, or back in time. Should we, I dunno, poke the electorate with a stick, just to see if it's still awake? If I had to declare a winner for this week, it would be the NDP -- which is up nearly a full point nationally, although given how not awesome last week's numbers weer, that's less cause for raucous celebration and more deserving of a quiet sigh of relief for Team Orange. Everyone else seems mired in meh. 

The topline numbers, with a slim, trim 2.11 margin of error: 

Conservatives: 31.9 (-0.5)
Liberals: 29.6 (+0.2)
NDP: 16.0 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.1 (-0.3) (36.5 in Quebec)
Green: 11.0 (+0.5)
Other: 2.4 (-0.7)

Undecided: 12.6 (-)

Full data available here. 

On to the marginally more interesting, but still oddly static regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.38)
Conservatives: 36.4 (+7.9)
Liberals: 21.9 (-6.8)
NDP: 21.2 (-4.4)
Green: 17.5 (+3.9)
Other: 2.9 (-0.5)

Hey, there's that post-Olympic bounce that the Conservatives were hoping for! Pity it stops at the BC/Alberta border, and may well evaporate as the golden glow fades and the bill for being the nation's hospitality suite comes due. Meanwhile, the Liberals clearly made a serious strategic error in not ensuring that their leader was front and centre for that glorious hockey match, and the NDP -- oh, who knows what's up with the NDP in BC. I keep thinking that the HST-provoked rage will reignite, but it seems -- sporadic at best. 

Alberta (MoE 6.33)
Conservatives: 50.2 (-9.3)
Liberals: 21.9 (+3.2)
NDP: 13.0 (+7.8)
Green: 10.7 (-2.3)
Other: 4.2 (+0.7)

A nine point plummet for the Conservatives in Alberta? Yikes. If that trend continues, there could be as many as -- no seats at all at risk in the next election. On the plus side, the NDP is back in the game, apparently -- last week, if you'll recall, the party's support was lower than the regional margin of error -- and the Liberals pick up a meaningless but possibly morale-boosting three points. 


Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 9.10)
Conservatives: 45.3 (-0.3)
Liberals: 25.4 (+3.3)
NDP: 21.9 (+2.0)
Green: 6.7 (-3.1)
Other: 0.7 (-1.9)

I'm starting to worry about you, Saskitoba. This is the second week in a row that you haven't confounded the EKOSbot with a double-digit shift. Is it the slightly-larger-than-usual margin of error throwing off your game? 

Ontario (MoE 3.52)
Liberals: 35.2 (-2.5)
Conservatives: 33.4 (-1.5)
NDP: 17.9 (+3.6)
Green: 10.6 (+0.9)
Other: 2.9 (-0.3)

For whatever reason, last week seems to have been a very good one for the NDP in Ontario-- they're up more than three points from the previous poll, in sharp contrast to the other two currently seat-holding parties. The Liberals continue to slide ungracefully back into a low-thirties tie with the Conservatives, which has to be rather discouraging. (Psst! DonOLO denizens! I hear Ontarians love party leaders with spine. Couldn't hurt to try, right?) 

Quebec (MoE 4.31)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.5 (-1.3)
Liberals: 27.4 (+6.3)
Conservatives: 16.0 (-0.1)
Green: 9.9 (+0.5)
NDP: 8.9 (-3.3)
Other: 1.2 (-1.4)

Okay, here, the Liberals can be a teeny weeny bit smug -- somehow, they've managed to sidle within a mere ten points of the Bloc Quebecois. How? No idea -- but whatever it is, it seems to be working. Meanwhile, the Conservatives hold steady-ish, and NDP stumbles behind the Greens. 

Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.19)
Liberals: 37.2 (+5.2)
Conservatives: 32.2 (+0.1)
NDP: 19.9 (-2.1)
Green: 8.5 (-0.7)
Other: 2.2 (-1.1)

Don't despair, Liberals: At least you'll always have Atlantic Canada. Well, for this week, anyway. 

As for "direction of government", the numbers appear to be unchanged from last week, which would actually explain a lot, as far as the overall results. Over to you, commenters. Can you glean any unique or previously unnoticed insight from this week's numbers? Or is the overall stasis itself worth considering, as an indication of the overwhelming lack of ooomph for any of the parties amongst the EKOSbot-responding public? 


Tags: blackberry jungle, EKOS of the week