EKOS of the Day - The much-anticipated post-Olympics rise of ... Other? Really?

So it turns out that the ultimate beneficiary of the very possibly fleeting gold-plated goodwill of the electorate is .. The Others.

I know, I was a bit surprised too; it's fair to call that an unexpected turn of events, at least as far as the predictions of the pollsterati, professional and armchair alike. Well, the Others and the Bloc Quebecois, that is -- every other listed party managed to go down this week. Yes, even the Conservatives, and even after That Hockey Game, although if you peek at the rolling daily numbers -- and I know you do, so don't even try giving me that look -- the governing party did manage to end this week's cycle on a sweeping, almost certainly majority-producing one-day high. Did the PM do anything special on Tuesday? Because whatever it was, it totally worked. 

Anyway, on to the numbers -- first, the nationals, which come with a neat and tidy 1.97 margin of error across the country (4.01 in Quebec), and a whole lot of minus signs, although most of the shifts are, as commenters will undoubtedly point out, cosily tucked within the aforementioned MoE:

Conservatives: 32.4 (-1.0)
Liberals: 29.4 (-0.9)
NDP: 15.2 (-0.6)
Green: 10.5 (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.4 (+1.2) (in Quebec: 37.8 +4.8) )
Other: 3.1 (+1.2)

Undecided: 12.6 (+0.1)

Full data tables available here.

And now, on to the good stuff, otherwise known as the regionals:

British Columbia (MoE 5.12)
Liberals: 28.7 (+2.3)
Conservatives: 28.5 (-2.8)
NDP: 25.6 (-0.8)
Green: 13.7 (+0.1)
Other: 3.4 (+1.0)

Hey, look at that: last week, the Liberals were tied with the NDP for second place, and this week, they've managed to pull ahead of the Conservatives, albeit with only the most slivericious of leads. The Conservatives, meanwhile, managed to drop by nearly three points -- which is, of course, within the MoE, but if I have to interrupt every observation with that disclaimer, it's going to make for an awfully long and em-dash-laden post, so can we all just stipulate to that overall caveat and be done with it? All those in favour? Opposed? Motion carried!

Alberta (MoE 5.94)
Conservatives: 59.5 (+1.8)
Liberals: 18.9 (-0.4)
Green: 13.0 (+2.6)
NDP: 5.2 (-3.9)
Other: 3.5 (-)

And now, of course, I have to turn around and mention the margin of error again, if only to point out that at the moment, at least, the NDP's total support in Alberta falls within it, which doesn't seem like a terribly auspicious omen for Linda Duncan, who remains the only spot of colour in the vast blue provincial electoral sea. Meanwhile, both the Conservatives and the Greens are up, which means exactly nothing, as far as putative changes to the seat count.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.72)
Conservatives: 45.6 (+3.8)
Liberals: 22.1 (-4.1)
NDP: 19.9 (-4.8)
Green: 9.8 (+3.0)
Other: 2.6 (+2.0)

More good news for the Conservatives! And the Greens! And, of course, The Others! The Liberals did manage to hold on to second place, but only by virtue of not plummeting quite so precipitously as the NDP. These are actually among the least odd results we've seen in Saskitoba in ages, as far as changes from the previous week; usually, one luckless party takes a double-digit tumble, and another rockets ahead by the same amount. My conclusion? Rogue poll, obviously. (Oh, for heaven's sakes, I'm kidding. Ish.)

Ontario (MoE 3.30)
Liberals: 38.0 (+1.8)
Conservatives: 34.9 (-1.1)
NDP: 14.3 (-1.0)
Green: 9.7 (-1.1)
Other: 3.2 (+1.4)

These are likely the only numbers producing smiles -- or at least not a series of Munch-inspired :Os -- over at Liberal HQ: they're back in the lead in Seat Rich Ontario (which we should really consider as a new provincial motto), although not by nearly enough to get comfortable. Everyone else, meanwhile, is down -- everyone except The Others, of course; the only listed choice that managed to go up, or at least hold steady, across the country.

Quebec (MoE 4.01)
Bloc Quebecois: 37.8 (+4.8)
Liberals: 22.1 (-5.2)
Conservatives: 15.9 (-2.3)
NDP: 12.2 (+2.4)
Green: 9.4 (-0.6)
Other: 2.6 (+1.0)

Welcome back to the high thirties, Bloc Quebecois! Welcome back to the pits of the low twenties, Liberals! Welcome back to the midling teens, Conservatives! Way to pull out of the single digits, NDP! Sucks to be you, Greens! And finally, go Team Other! I have no idea who you represent -- in Quebec, or anywhere else, really -- but one can't help but like your moxie, as inexplicable as it may be. Or maybe because of that. What can I say -- I like a bit of inexplicability in my opinion polls. It makes life interesting. 
 
Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.19)
Conservatives: 32.7 (+0.1)
Liberals: 32.1 (-3.8)
NDP: 22.0 (+1.1)
Green: 9.9 (+2.7)
Other: 3.3 (+0.3)

And finally, to the East Coast, where the Conservatives are back in the lead, albeit by a mere fragment of a percentage point; the Liberals have crashed and burned on the shoals of -- I have no idea what, to be honest; and the NDP is slowly but surely climbing the ladder back to three-way future election action, although not with quite as much enthusiasm as the Green Party.

Oh, one more bit of good news for the Conservatives: for the first time since prorogation, more EKOSbot respondents say the government is heading in the right direction than the alternative -- 45.1 to 43.5. Only in Quebec and Atlantic Canada did a majority give you the thumbs down.

That said, according to this week's bonus question on the "major challenges" faced by the government in "dealing with its finances," fully 58.8 percent of respondents across the country called for investment in "social areas such as health, education and jobs," with just 23.0 preferring to "keep taxes as low as possible," and a mere 18.2 wanting the same for the deficit. Even amongst Conservative supporters, spendy-spendy-on-the-stuff-we-like won out. I know, I know -- the budget has already been written, so it's not like you can do much about it now, but I just wanted to point it out. Just being helpful.