EKOS of the Day: Well, no Olympic bounce yet -- for anyone.

Check out the complete data tables here. 

A one point jump for the NDP nets Team Jack the award for Most Improved, with the Green Party a distant second with a half point gain, and the Conservatives rounding out the list of parties that managed to stay on the right side of the plus or minus ledger, albeit by just a fifth of a percentage point. The Liberals, meanwhile, appear to be stalled; support for the Others has fallen by a tenth of a point, and the Bloc Quebecois, which is clearly the Loser of the Week, has shed a point and a half since last week, which translates into a 5.8 point drop in Quebec. Ouch. No wonder they're sending Gilles Duceppe out on a cross-province road trip as part of the leadup to the next session.

But what does it all mean? Well, let's peek at the regional data and find out, shall we?

British Columbia (MoE 5.03)
Conservatives: 29.9 (-0.4)
Liberals: 29.0 (+4.9)
NDP: 24.3 (-2.6)
Green: 12.9 (-2.1)
Other: 4.0 (+0.3)

An odd - and seemingly unexplained - jump for the Liberals puts the party back in second place in BC, which has been a rare occurrence in recent months. Without more details on how, exactly, that breaks down across the province, it's hard to say whether or not a stronger Liberal party could ultimately work to the advantage of the Conservatives by siphoning off just enough NDP support in ridings where it's a two-way race between Team Blue and Team Orange, and it's even less clear whether it has anything to do with that Olympic bounce that some pollologists -- not this one, mind you -- have been predicting, which -- according to the theory -- could give the government a temporary boost as it basks in the reflected glory of a triumphant Team Canada and a record-breaking medal haul. Honestly, when you type it out, it sounds even more ridiculous, but when you come right down to it, who knows what perverse logic lurks in the hearts of poll respondents, really?


Alberta (MoE 5.46)
Conservatives: 52.3 (-4.8)
Liberals: 19.4 (-2.5)
Green: 13.7 (+5.6)
NDP: 11.0 (+2.4)
Other: 3.6 (-0.7)

OH NO! The Conservatives are perilously close to dropping below the fifty percent threshold in Alberta, thus putting -- exactly zero seats at risk, although the NDP's small but mighty Edmonton Strathcona stronghold does appear to be a wee bit safer than it was last week, at least. Unless, of course, the entire contingent of Alberta-based Green supporters is plotting to migrate, en masse, to Calgary West to take on Rob Anders in the only remaining battle in which his party can't simply send in the cavalry to save him. Which is, admittedly, unlikely, but an entertaining thought experiment nonetheless. 

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.53)
Conservatives: 42.0 (-3.5)
NDP: 26.9 (+11.3)
Liberals: 18.6 (-5.8)
Green: 9.8 (-0.5)
Other: 2.7 (+0.6)

Meanwhile, in Saskitoba, the perennially erratic and unpredictable pendulum has swung back to the NDP. Under normal circumstances, an eleven point jump would be noteworthy, but honestly, if you've been paying attention for the last few weeks, the only reasonable conclusion one can draw from the bizarre vacillations that we've seen within the pollster-created borders is that at least one of the two provinces involved is, at this point, simply amusing itself by messing with the rest of the country's collective mind. To which we say bravo, and well played.
 
Ontario (MoE 2.84)
Liberals: 35.0 (-1.2)
Conservatives: 34.6 (+3.6)
NDP: 15.4 (-1.3)
Green: 12.0 (-1.6)
Other: 3.0 (+0.6)

Okay, listen up, Liberals: This -- the trend in Ontario, that is -- is now officially a Problem for you. After retaking first place from the Conservatives in January, you've managed to fritter away what was, at least at one point, a fairly impressive lead, and you're now back in a virtual tie. And no, you can't just point at the other regional results and pretend that this is just a statistical fluke -- the trend never lies. Well, when it comes to the past. The trend is notoriously cagey when it comes to predicting the future, but the fact remains that you ignore what's going on in Ontario at your peril. Oh, and everyone else? Well done, good show, keep up the hard work, etc.


Quebec (MoE 3.39)
Bloc Quebecois: 35.9 (-5.8)
Liberals: 24.9 (+1.8)
Conservatives: 15.5 (-0.5)
Green: 11.3 (+3.2)
NDP: 11.1 (+2.8)
Other: 1.2 (+1.5)

Alright, it's possible that last week's results -- which put the Bloc Quebecois comfortably above the 40 percent mark for the first time in ages -- were, in fact, a statistical fluke, and unlike the Liberals in Ontario, it's not like they have to worry that another party will soon be breathing down their neck, but what I wrote about trends still stands, and this isn't a particularly encouraging one for the Bloc. 

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.30)
Liberals: 34.5 (+0.1)
Conservatives: 29.4 (-4.3)
NDP: 25.1 (+3.8)
Green: 9.2 (+0.1)
Other: 1.9 (+0.1)

Despite the flurry of last minute infrastructure announcements, celebratory ribbon cuttings and other crowdpleasing efforts by Revenue Minister Keith Ashfield, who has been one of the most visible ministers on the Look How Busy We Are prorogation circuit, the Conservatives tumble, and the NDP creeps ever upward. Such is life -- or, at least, life as reflected by recent polls, with a 6.3 margin of error -- in Atlantic Canada.

Oh, and since I seem to have committed myself to tracking the direction of government results as well, I should note that the percentage of those who think it's going the right way rose to 41.0 from 39.9 - an increase of 1.1 percent! -- conversely, those who feel the opposite saw their numbers drop to 48.2 percent, a full eight tenths of a percentage point lower than it was last week, although weirdly, more Conservative supporters seemed to be disenchanted with the current direction -- 12.9 percent, compared to 9.2 last week -- while more Liberal, Green and Bloc Quebecois supporters gave the government a thumbs up.

Any theories, commenters? Bring 'em on.