EKOS of the Day: Another week, another statistical tie. Is this the new normal?

For the moment, at least. I know, I know: snapshot in time, polls are for dogs, only one that counts is on election day ... insert your favourite reason to dismiss any and all results that fail to comply with your own personal perception of the current political landscape. But since the EKOSbots have gone through all the trouble of collecting all this data, few would condemn us for sneaking a quick peek, right? What harm ever came from doing a little math on a Thursday morning, after all?

First, the topline numbers, which come with the usual 1.8 percent margin of error, with the EKOSbots in the field from January 27 to February 2:

Liberals: 31.9 (+0.3)
Conservatives: 31.0 (-0.1)
NDP: 15.4 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.4 (-0.5) (34.9 (-2.1) in Quebec)
Green: 10.9 (-0.1)
Other: 2.4 (-0.2)

Undecided/Ineligible: 14.5 (+2.1)

Congratulations, Undecided/Ineligibles! You're the only group that managed to inch outside of the margin of error this week, although not by much, with the NDP a distant second on the gains-o-meter, and the Liberals twitching forward by just a third of a percent. Meanwhile, both the Bloc Quebecois and the Conservatives are down, albeit by an infinitesimal amount, as are the Greens and the Others. 

As always, it falls to the markedly more mercurial regional data to provide the necessary context to figure out what the numbers actually mean, so let's move onward -- or, in this case, inward -- and read the sub-entrails:

British Columbia (MoE 5.09)
Conservatives: 30.4 (-2.0)
Liberals: 27.6 (+0.5)
NDP: 23.0 (+1.1)
Green: 16.4 (+1.8)
Other: 2.7 (-1.3)

Not much to note out on the West Coast, really -- the Conservatives down a titch, the NDP and the Greens on the upswing, and the Liberals seemingly having hit a plateau, although at least one that puts them ahead of the NDP, which is less embarrassing for a take-us-seriously would-be government than the alternative.


Alberta (MoE 6.19)
Conservatives: 52.1 (+1.9)
Liberals: 18.3 (-0.3)
Green: 13.0 (-2.4)
NDP: 10.4 (+1.0)
Other: 6.2 (-0.2)

As is the new protocol for analysing the results from Alberta, the regional breakdown confirms that the Conservatives once again command the support of more than fifty percent of the population -- well, of decided voters, that is, although I still wonder how much of that surprisingly hearty Other support is a direct result of the rise of the Wild Rose Alliance. Meanwhile, the NDP is still struggling to retake third place from those upstart Greens -- and not doing a bad job of it, if you look at the change from last week.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.46)
Conservatives: 39.9 (-4.5)
NDP: 31.2 (+11.3)
Liberals: 19.8 (-4.1)
Green: 7.9 (-0.9)
Other: 1.2 (-1.8)

See, NDP? I was saving the good news til we hit Saskitoba, where a good, old-fashioned prairie socialist revival appears to be in full swing, with the NDP rocketing into second place with a double-digit jump from last week's numbers, at the expense of pretty much every other party on the EKOS ballot. Then again, the Liberals managed a similarly spectacular feat a few weeks ago, but almost immediately slid back to their usual numbers in the next poll, so who knows whether this is anything more than a statistical blip. (I know it drives some commenters crazy when I use 'statistical' as an adjective, but sometimes I can't help myself. Be gentle.) 

Ontario (MoE 2.95)
Liberals: 40.6 (+1.4)
Conservatives: 32.4 (+0.8)
NDP: 14.0 (-0.8)
Green: 10.5 (-1.9)
Other: 2.4 (+0.5)

Although still stuck in second place, these results have to be at least a little bit encouraging for the Conservatives, since at least the numbers seem to be heading in the right direction, albeit at a more leisurely pace than the Liberals, at least for the moment. That's more than the NDP or the Greens can say, after all.

Quebec (MoE 3.64)
Bloc Quebecois: 34.9 (-2.1)
Liberals: 27.0 (-2.1)
Conservatives: 17.8 (+1.6)
NDP: 9.8 (+0.5)
Green: 8.8 (+1.8)
Other: 1.7 (+0.3)

Well, look at you, Quebec: all of a sudden, you're getting interesting again, what with the sudden droopiness in support for both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals, and the possibly related uptickening by the Conservatives, the Greens and - to a slightly lesser degree -- the NDP. What's going on over there, anyway?

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.16)
Liberals: 38.8 (+5.0)
Conservatives: 31.7 (-5.4)
NDP: 19.2 (-1.9)
Green: 9.6 (+3.0)
Other: 0.7 (-0.6)

And finally, Atlantic Canada, where the Mobius see-saw of public support sends the Liberals sailing above the Conservatives, at least for the week, as the NDP looks on longingly from the sidelines, and the Greens -- well, they just feel smug, because a three point gain is not to be sneezed at, even when it falls well within the margin of error.

Oh, and the right direction/wrong direction numbers are out as well, with 42.6 percent giving the government a nod of approval, versus 45.7 percent who disagree, and 11.7 percent skipping the question. The most disheartening finding for the Conservatives in that particular set of numbers would have to be the landslide support that its current direction gets from those who are ineligible to vote; the Undecideds, alas, don't seem nearly as dazzled, although in fairness, that was before this week's cabinet committee retreat. Jobs, jobs, jobs -- who can argue with that?

Alright, over to you, commenters.