ShuffleSpinWatch: So, what does it all mean?

Alright, now that my fingers have defrosted, some further musings on today's more-than-a-mere-tweaking of the cabinet, in no particular order, based on the post-shuffle spin wars from various Conservative corners, and - of course - my own suspicious little mind.

Although by far the most breathlessly mulled-over ministerial downfall is that of erstwhile Natural Resources Minister Lisa Raitt, who was exiled to Labour, losing both the Atlantic Gateway and ACOA to mild-mannered Ken Dryden lookalike Keith Ashfield is being viewed as a subtle demotion -- or at least, curtailing of the powers -- of Defence Minister Peter MacKay. Both programs are wildly popular in the region, and -- more importantly, from the perspective of a minister in an electorally volatile region like Atlantic Canada  -- provide seemingly endless opportunities for good news announcements -- at least until newly minted Treasury Board President Stockwell Day turns off the CEA!P spigot.

(An aside: Did anyone else find it weirdly adorable that Day got the name of his government's signature stimulus spending program wrong in his post-shuffle media avail, calling it the 'Action Canada Plan'? You forgot the economy, minister.)

Meanwhile, even after the new lineup was announced, speculated raged over whether or not this actually was a demotion for Peter Van Loan, who went from Public Safety to International Trade. When word broke last night that he was on the moon, it was remarkable how quickly his previously undisclosed enemies within the Conservative ranks came out of the electronic woodwork to tell journalists that his performance at Public Safety had left the prime minister distinctly underwhelmed, which, given the revelations on the content of his mandate letter, which found its way into the hands of National Post columnist John Ivison, would seem to explain why he was hustled off to International Trade: he's just not the man for the job, not now that it's going to be the object of a full-scale review and overhaul.  

But -- wait a minute here. Didn't Stockwell Day's ministerial career follow the identical trajectory? It wasn't seen as a demotion back then, so why would we assume that this was a prime ministerial rebuke? (And come to think of it, since when does Van Loan have enemies within the ranks? Of his own party, that is.) Public Safety is, after all, a bit of a nightmare, as portfolios go: every jail break, border breach, gun registry debate and RCMP scandal seems to land in your lap. Why wouldn't Van Loan be delighted to hand it off to Vic Toews -- who may be approaching the end of his political career, although he'll deny it until the day he announces his retirement -- and head off into the sunshine of whatever country we're currently trying to tempt into a free trade agreement?

Which brings us to Vic Toews. Yes, as it turns out, there may be an order of sorts taking shape here after all, at least as far as the precise sequence in which these random thoughts are popping into my head. He's definitely one of the more competent, experienced ministers in cabinet -- and yes, I just made myself wince by typing that worn-to-the-core stock phrase -- but it's fair to say that his heart has always been with the law-and-order side of government, and not, say, the magic of full accrual accounting.

More importantly -- well, if you're the prime minister, at least -- sending Toews off to round out his career with a stint as Solicitor General Plus means that you can hand Treasury Board over to a trusted and proven performer like Stockwell Day, which could become particularly important this fall, when the Auditor General issues her preliminary report on the stimulus program. If -- I said if -- she were to report any irregularities, inconsistencies, oddities or anomalies in how the CEA!P money was managed and spent, it will most likely come down to the question of Treasury Board guidelines, which is why the PM will want someone at TBS who can handle the most overtorqued, insinuating questions in the House with resolute, but amiable aplomb. Should any arise, that is. Maybe he really is there to tighten those belts, although aren't the more fundamental decisions on reining in the deficit at least as much within the purview of the finance minister? 

And finally, there's Christian Paradis, who inspired what is, without a doubt, the snappiest headline of the day, courtesy of the Globe's Rob Silver, and who gets to spend the foreseeable future explaining why, as Chantal Hebert puts it, a Quebec Minister for the Oil/Tarsands isn't quite as much of a gift to the Bloc Quebecois as it sounds on paper. Or when you say the words out loud, or imagine them being said by Gilles Duceppe during the very first Question Period after the House gets back.

I know, I know -- I didn't get to everyone, but that's all I have for the moment. I'll add more mullings as they occur to me, but don't let that stop you from sharing your analysis in the comments.