UPDATED: Orders EKOS of the Day (01/07/09): 33.1/27.8/16.0/13.4/9.8

Now, before we get down to the number crunching, I should point out that this week's poll has a higher than usual margin of error -- well, higher than usual for EKOS, anyway -- of 2.4 percent after just two days in the field -- January 4th and 5th, to be exact -- instead of the normal five-day rolling sample. Blame it on the traditional Canadian holiday polling break -- apparently, nobody wants to be That Pollster Who Called Right In The Middle of The Sound of Music, Thus Ruining Christmas. On the plus side, that means the results may be more reflective of the current mood of the nation, although if that's the case, it will only become apparent after the fact. Think of it as a quark -- charmed or strange flavour, your choice. 

Anyway, now that we've got that disclaimer out of the way, let's start with the national numbers: 

Conservatives: 33.1 (-2.8)
Liberals: 27.8 (+1.1)
NDP: 16.0 (-1.0)
Green: 13.4 (+2.2)
Bloc Quebecois*: 9.8 (+0.6)
Undecided: 14.7

*Yes, I know I usually give the Bloc Quebecois number for Quebec, instead of nationally, but given the increased margin of error, I figured I may as well follow the pollster's lead for once, even though Bloc support outside Quebec is, of course, entirely irrelevant.

Before we get to the regional numbers --  which -- and I cannot possibly stress this enough -- also have a considerably wider margin of error than we usually see, so take them with as many grains of salt as a Globe and Mail-endorsed nutritionist would grudgingly allow -- let's take a moment to ponder the above snapshot in time, if only to note that the Conservatives are the only party whose support seems to have shifted outside the margin of error -- and not in the right direction, at least from their perspective.

Okay, with that out of the way, let's run through the regional breakdowns, shall we?

British Columbia (MoE 7.32)
Conservatives: 34.2 (-0.8)
NDP: 25.9 (-2.9)
Liberals:  21.4 (-2.2)
Green: 18.5 (+6.2)

Okay, so either British Columbia has fallen hard and fast for the organic, free range charms of Elizabeth May, or this particular poll may just possibly have oversampled the regulars at the local hemp cafe, because that 6.2 percent leap really is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser. If that's the case, and you sort of mentally adjust the numbers, I'd actually give this one to the Conservatives, what with their decline being more modest than the other two parties. Oh, and if I were the NDP, I might be concerned that the momentum that the party seemed to be picking up in both BC and Ontario as a result of their anti-HST agitating may be starting to lose steam. Populist outrage is, after all, a frustratingly fickle beast, and it can be tricky to get people worked into a frenzy of reactionary throw-the-bums-outness more than once. 


Alberta (MoE 8.95)
Conservatives: 61.7 (+1.0)
Liberals: 15.0 (+1.1)
Green: 13.2 (-1.9)
NDP: 10.0 (-0.4)

Oh, Alberta. You really are a fixed point in this ever changing universe, aren't you? A constant, even. I believe I may start calling you Desmond. That's okay, right?  Note, too, that the Greens are up here as well, although considering that this is, you know, Alberta and all, for the three non-Conservative parties, it's not so much a race for second place as a contest to see which will have the highest percentage of candidates to get their deposit back from Elections Canada.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 11.55)
Conservatives: 48.6 (-4.5)
NDP: 27.3 (+6.8)
Liberals: 12.4 (-5.2)
Green: 11.7 (+2.9)

Out of all the regions, this is the one with the highest margin of error, so I'm not even going to try to discern deeper meaning here, although at least the NDP can comfort themselves with the notion that, for a brief, shining moment, they could legitimately claim to command more than twice the level of support as the Liberals amongst prairie dwellers.

Ontario (MoE 3.91)
Liberals: 36.0 (+2.5)
Conservatives: 35.4 (-3.6)
Green: 14.3 (+1.6)
NDP: 14.2 (-0.6)

Quebec (MoE 4.85)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.2 (+1.4)
Liberals: 27.5 (+2.9)
Conservatives: 14.6 (-2.7)
Green: 10.2 (+1.5)
NDP: 9.6 (-3.2)

For the first time in months, the Liberals have managed to creep into first place in Ontario, although by a statistically insignificant sliver. Still, when you consider that they were trailing by double digits for most of the fall, you've got to wonder whether the fact that Harris Decima found Ontarians distinctly underwhelmed by the prospect of prorogation might have something to with the possibly temporarily fading fortunes of the Conservatives. Then again, maybe it's just a blip. It's also the first time I can recall the NDP trailing the Greens in both Ontario and Quebec. Again, given the small sample size, it's hardly reason for the Dips to push the panic button, but you'd have to think it would be a bit worrisome if that trend continues. 

Meanwhile, in Quebec, it looks the Liberals may have finally pulled out of that weird folie a deux with the Conservatives, in which both parties sort of hovered in the low twenties while the Bloc Quebecois gazed down with amused condescension, seemingly unevictable from their upper thirties penthouse. Well, the Bloc is still fine -- up, even -- but the Conservative support has been slip-sliding away for more than a month, and has finally landed the party right back in the surly mid-teens. Meanwhile, the Liberals seem to have managed to recover enough of the lead that it lost during last year's Outremont-related existential crisis to legitimately lay claim to a distant second place.


Atlantic Canada (10.82)
Conservatives: 32.6 (-2.6)
Liberals: 28.4 (-2.8)
NDP: 27.2 (+0.3)
Green: 11.8 (+5.1)

I know I've said it before, but honestly, if these numbers hold until the next campaign, it's going to be fascinating to watch this three-way race unfold. Forget Battleground BC -- if sufficient seats are really in play during an election, those earth-salty Maritimers (and Newfoundlanders and Labradorians) could end up deciding which party forms the next achingly fragile minority government before the polls close in Ontario. Okay, maybe that's a tiny exaggeration, but still, it's worth keeping an eye on the East. (You think maybe they want in?) 

UPDATE: A serendipitous poll from Angus Reid on how prorogation is going over with the Canadian public. The findings? Not so well, as it turns out, particularly in Ontario, where 59 percent of respondents disagreed -- either strongly or moderately -- and just 17 percent agreed, which is the second highest disapproval rate in the country. First place goes to Atlantic Canada, where 54 percent of respondents characterized their disagreement as "strong." 

As with the Harris Decima pre-prorogation poll, I was especially curious to see how Conservative supporters are reacting to the PM's move; this survey suggests that they're pretty much split on the issue, with 46 percent agreeing -- either strongly or moderately -- and 35 percent opposed -- again, strongly/moderately -- with 19 percent unsure.